美联储主席凯文·沃什上周没有从选民那里得到信息，最新的消费者价格指数报告应该让这一点变得十分清楚：通胀过高。对于沃什来说，当央行行长们四周后会面制定货币政策时，再次加息是不可或缺的。即便如此，可能也不足以抑制通胀。
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t get the message from voters last week, the latest consumer price index report should make it abundantly clear: Inflation is too high. For Warsh, nothing less than another increase in interest rates will do when central bankers meet in four weeks to set monetary policy. And even that may not be enough to tame inflation.
劳工统计局周二表示，10月份消费者价格较9月份上涨0.4%，高于经济学家预测的0.3%涨幅。根据彭博经济学的计算，这相当于较一年前上涨3.9%（当时政府停摆导致劳工统计局无法为该报告收集数据）。作为提醒，美联储的目标是将通胀保持在2%。
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from September, more than the 0.3% gain that economists had forecast. By the calculations of Bloomberg Economics, that works out to be a 3.9% increase from a year earlier (when a government shutdown prevented the BLS from gathering data for the report). As a reminder, the Fed has a goal of keeping inflation at 2%.
最新数据证实了中期选举中选民的“蓝色海啸”，该选举使众议院和参议院的控制权转移到民主党手中，部分原因是选民对持续高企的生活成本感到沮丧。CPI报告的细节凸显了美国人为何如此沮丧，因为价格上涨既普遍，又在对低收入家庭打击最严重的领域最为剧烈：沃什的直觉应该能引导他走向正确方向。他在2006年至2011年担任美联储理事的早期任期内，以及之后在私营部门的时间里，都表现出鹰派倾向。
The latest data validated the “ blue tsunami” of voters in the midterm elections, which flipped control of the House and Senate to Democrats, in part because they were frustrated with the persistently elevated cost of living. The details of the CPI report underscored why Americans are so frustrated, because price increases are both widespread and most acute in the areas that hit low-income households hardest: Warsh’s instincts should guide him in the right direction. He demonstrated hawkish inclinations throughout his earlier tenure as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, and during his time in the private sector afterwards.
2010年11月，美联储会议记录显示，他当时强烈反对时任主席本·S·伯南克关于美联储第二轮为刺激经济而进行的债券购买，即量化宽松。他还批评了美联储在疫情期间的宽松货币政策，以及该央行2024年适度降息的做法。正如我在他被选为美联储主席时所写的，他一贯的鹰派倾向，使他成为总统唐纳德·特朗普的一个奇怪人选，特朗普不仅游说降息，还游说宽松货币。沃什面临的挑战是，要有勇气在四个月内第二次加息，以违抗特朗普。
In November 2010, Fed transcripts show that he strongly disagreed with then-Chair Ben S. Bernanke about the Fed’s second round of bond buying to stimulate the economy, known as quantitative easing. He also criticized the Fed’s easy-money policies during the pandemic and the central bank’s modest rate reductions in 2024. As I wrote when he was selected to become Fed chair, his hawkish tendencies always made him a curious pick for President Donald Trump, who had lobbied not just for lower rates, buteasy money. Warsh’s challenge is to find the backbone to defy Trump with a second rate increase in four months.
即使数据更为温和，大局是美国人已经与高通胀共存了大约六年。这是一个问题，因为通胀往往会成为自我实现的预言，一旦消费者习惯于预期价格持续上涨，这种预期就会持续存在。尽管消费者通胀预期难以衡量，但中期选举提供了一个超过1.2亿选民的强大样本，他们告诉立法者，自己已经到了忍无可忍的地步。
Even if the numbers had been more muted, the big picture is that Americans have been living with high inflation for around six years. This is a problem because inflation tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy that sticks around once consumers have become conditioned to expect continual price gains. Although consumer inflation expectations can be hard to measure, the midterm elections provided a robust sample of more than 120 million voters who told lawmakers that they’re at their breaking point.
对于央行决策者来说，保持对大局的关注，而非纠结于细节，至关重要。据彭博经济学（Bloomberg Economics）估计，“核心”通胀上涨幅度相对温和，为0.3%，与一年前相比可能上涨了约2.5%。问题是，核心通胀——即剔除食品和能源——是一种统计上的虚构，现实中没有任何人能脱离日常生活中的食品和能源而存在。它本应是在剔除波动因素后，对价格基本趋势做出更准确的估算，但其存在的前提是冲击往往会来也会去。
For central bankers, it’s important to stay focused on the forest and not the trees. “Core” inflation rose a somewhat tamer 0.3% and was probably up around 2.5% from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg Economics. The problem is that core — which excludes food and energy — is a statistical fiction experienced by no actual human beings who rely on food and energy in their daily lives. It’s supposed to be a truer guesstimate of the underlying trend in prices, after stripping out volatile elements, but its existence is premised on the idea that shocks tend to come and go.
在特朗普时代，这一指标大多已失去作用，因为特朗普已将冲击变成了反复出现的现象（如关税、伊朗战争等）。
It’s been rendered mostly useless in the era of Trump, who has made shocks a recurring phenomenon (tariffs, the Iran war, etc.).
特朗普似乎总有另一个不受欢迎的经济惊喜在后头，而且我们仍在应对最初那些惊喜带来的后果。玩具价格的飞涨可能是关税长期影响的结果，而食品价格的上涨可能是由于美国-以色列与伊朗的战争导致柴油价格上涨，进而推高运输成本所产生的滞后影响。根据美联储所谓的“米皮书”（Beige Book）中企业的评论以及美国独立企业联合会（National Federation of Independent Business）的数据，随着新年的到来，其他类型的公司似乎也准备在未来几个月再次提价。
Not only does Trump always seem to have another unwelcome economic surprise in store, but we’re still dealing with the fallout of the original ones. The jump in toy prices was probably the result of the long shadow of tariffs, while the increase in food prices may be the lagged impact of diesel rising as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran and hitting shipping costs. Other types of companies seem to be preparing to bump up prices again in the coming months as the new year arrives, according to commentary by firms in the Fed’s so-called Beige Book and data from the National Federation of Independent Business.
距离下一次美联储决策还有大约一个月时间，值得关注信贷市场等地的发展，因为那里正出现初步的压力迹象。信贷市场的裂痕可能迅速扩散。正如我上个月所写，这是美联储审慎行事的原因——这一点依然成立。而且一如既往，重要的是要抵制对任何单月数据过度解读的诱惑。
There’s still about a month to go until the next Fed decision, and it’s worth watching developments in places like the credit markets, where incipient signs of stress are appearing. Cracks in credit markets can spread quickly. As I wrote last month, that’s a reason for the Fed to move cautiously — and that’s still true. And as always, it’s important to resist the temptation to overinterpret any single month of data.
但这是连续第三份不受欢迎的CPI报告。近期通胀走势不佳，长期走势更糟。沃什刚刚从美国中期选举中超过1.2亿选民的强大样本中收到了一个非常令人震惊的信息，该信息要求美联储在六年之后终于将通胀控制住。
But this is a third consecutive unwelcome CPI report. The near-term inflation trend is poor, and the longer term trend is worse. Warsh just received a very alarming message from a robust sample of more than 120 million voters in the US midterms, and that message are demanding the Fed finally get inflation under control after six years.