首相安迪·伯纳姆和数十位世界领导人本周将乘飞机前往土耳其，排放大量碳，只为在最新一届年度国际气候大会COP31上大谈特谈他们对环境的关切。如果伯纳姆真想应对气候变化，他本应缺席COP31，转而在国内重建共识，让民众认识到拯救地球的重要性。
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and dozens of his fellow world leaders will burn some serious emissions flying to Turkey this week, to talk a lot of hot air about their concern for the environment. Were Burnham serious about tackling climate change, he’d skip COP31, the latest iteration of the annual international climate conference, and work on rebuilding consensus at home around the importance of saving the planet.
要找出英国各政党应对气候变化的集体意愿何时破裂，我会指向2023年7月21日凌晨2点40分。那一刻，保守党被宣布在伦敦外围选区乌克斯布里奇的补选中获胜，这次补选是由环保派但如今已名誉扫地的保守党首相鲍里斯·约翰逊辞职引发的。
If you were to pinpoint the moment that the collective will among the UK’s political parties to tackle climate change broke down, I’d suggest 2:40 a.m. on July 21, 2023. That was the exact minute the Conservative Party was declared the winner of a special election in the outer London constituency of Uxbridge, a contest triggered by the resignation of the eco-friendly but now disgraced Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
考虑到公众对约翰逊丑闻的不满以及工党在民调中的领先优势（不到一年后工党便大获全胜），基尔·斯塔默领导的工党本应轻松拿下该席位。但保守党凭借反对基于排放的道路税这一精明竞选策略，仅以几百票优势险胜。信号很明确：选民无论多么担忤地球，都不愿为保护环境损及自身钱包。
Labour under Keir Starmer should have been a shoo-in to capture the seat, given public disquiet at Johnson’s antics and Labour’s ascendancy in the polls (it would win power in a landslide less than a year later). But a canny campaign based on opposition to an emissions-based road tax handed the Tories the win by just a few hundred votes. The message was clear: However much they might fret about the planet, voters weren’t willing to take a hit to their wallets to protect it.
此后，应对气候变化的行动必须服从于生活成本压力这一信息，已渗透进所有英国主流政党，包括伯纳姆所属的工党，或许最令人沮丧、也最反直觉的是绿党。
The message that action on climate change must be subordinated to concern about cost-of-living pressures has since seeped into all the mainstream UK political parties, including Burnham’s Labour and, perhaps most depressingly and most counterintuitively, the Greens.
这一轨迹与美国如出一辙，“钻探，宝贝，钻探”已成国家政策。十年前，自由派对唐纳德·特朗普缺席气候大会、三分之二选民不赞成他退出《巴黎气候协定》感到震惊。如今，甚至大多数民主党人也强调负担能力的首要地位。
The journey mirrors that of the US, where “drill, baby, drill” has become national policy. A decade ago, liberals were aghast that Donald Trump snubbed COP and two-thirds of voters disapproved of his decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement. These days, even most Democrats stress the primacy of affordability.
距离阿尔·戈尔将全球变暖的严峻现实带入主流视野，如今已过去20年。随后几年，英国各政党竞相展示其环保资质。保守党的戴维·卡梅伦以“投蓝票，行绿道”口号，并配合一张在北极“拥抱哈士奇”的著名照片——旨在突显气候变化的影响——成功重返唐宁街。
It’s now 20 years since Al Gore’s brought the stark reality of global warming into the mainstream. In the years that followed, UK parties outdid each other to show off their green credentials. Conservative David Cameron navigated a path back to Downing Street with a “vote blue, go green” message accompanied by a famous “hug a husky” snap taken in the Arctic to highlight the impact of climate change.
政客们骑车上班、在自家安装热泵；他们鼓励使用可再生能源，并设定了雄心勃勃的净零排放目标。然而，在厄克斯布里奇选举之后，应对全球变暖的承诺开始动摇。斯塔默应受指责，他迅速将矛头指向伦敦市长萨迪克·汗将首都每天12.50英镑（16.78美元）的超低排放区（ULEZ）罚款范围扩展至外围区的举措。各派政客都对此予以关注。
Politicians cycled to Parliament and installed heat pumps in their homes; they encouraged use of renewable energy and set ambitious net-zero targets. After Uxbridge, however, the commitment to tackle global warming began to slide. Starmer, to his discredit, was quick to blame London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s move to extend the capital’s £12.50-a-day ($16.78) ULEZ (ultra-low emissions zone) penalty to the city’s outer boroughs. Politicians of all stripes paid attention.
“负担能力压倒气候”的论调在右翼受到热烈追捧，那里一直以来就有人对全球变暖持怀疑态度。此前几乎专注于移民问题的奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的改革英国党（Reform UK）受到鼓舞，开始宣扬带有特朗普风格的主张，其领导人称绿色议程为愚蠢之举。该党如今高调承诺：废除英国的净零排放目标，取消可再生能源补贴，并解除对水力压裂以及新北海油气许可证的禁令。
The message that affordability trumped climate was taken up enthusiastically on the right, where some had always been skeptics of global warming. Having previously focused almost exclusively on immigration, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was emboldened to campaign on Trumpy messages about what its leaders described as follies of the green agenda. The party is now loud and proud in its pledges to scrap the UK’s net-zero target, along with subsidies for renewables and bans on fracking and new North Sea oil and gas licenses.
与此同时，保守党已收回其绿色议程。现任领袖凯米·巴德诺赫自称“净零怀疑论者”，反对碳税和绿色附加费。而在左翼阵营，共识去年开始出现裂痕，当时扎克·波兰斯基以社会主义纲领和聚焦加沙议题的立场当选绿党领袖，将环保主义推向了议程边缘。当资深绿党成员质疑该党突然不再聚焦地球环境时，波兰斯基坚称“不实现社会、种族和经济正义，就没有环境正义可言。”
The Tories meanwhile have rolled back their green agenda. Current leader Kemi Badenoch is a self-described “net-zero skeptic” who opposes carbon taxes and green levies. And consensus on the left began to fray last year after Zack Polanski became Green leader with a socialist pitch and a focus on Gaza that pushed environmentalism down the agenda. When challenged by senior Greens about the party’s sudden lack of focus on the planet, Polanski insisted there can be “no environmental justice without social, racial and economic justice.”
在该党年度大会的演讲中，波兰斯基吹嘘利用自己的平台和一度上升的声望（后来证明是短暂的）将工党推向左翼。就气候议题的左右翼框架而言，在气候行动方面情况似乎恰恰相反。随着绿党关注点转移，伯纳姆7月上任时意识到，他在某些领域需要让步以从波兰斯基手中赢回选票，但环境不是其中之一。
In a speech at his party’s annual conference, Polanski boasted of using his platform and increased popularity (which turned out to be brief) to push Labour leftward. In as far as the climate has a left-right framing, the opposite seems to be true with regard to climate action. With the Greens’ focus elsewhere, Burnham came to office in July aware he needed to give ground in some areas in order to win votes back from Polanski, but the environment wasn’t one of them.
相反，新政府将缓解生活成本压力置于议程首位，气候行动的关注度随之开始下滑。或许最明确的信号是伯纳姆决定将埃德·米利班德从能源部调往外交部，此前他在能源部主导推动净零排放。该调动的早期影响体现在上个月米利班德的继任者米亚塔·范布勒批准了杰克道北海天然气田项目，而米利班德曾强烈反对该项目。迹象表明，更具争议且潜在环境后果更严重的罗斯班克油田开发项目也即将获批。
Instead, as the new government put ameliorating cost of living pressures top of the agenda, the focus on climate action began to slip. Perhaps the clearest signal of this was Burnham’s decision to move Ed Miliband from the energy department, where he had led the net-zero charge, to the Foreign Office. Early evidence of the impact of that move can be seen in last month’s decision by Miliband’s successor, Miatta Fahnbulleh, to greenlight the Jackdaw North Sea gas field project, which he had vehemently opposed. Signs are that the even more controversial and potentially environmentally consequential development of the Rosebank oil field will also soon be approved.
伯纳姆本周抵达气候大会，带着两项可能同样被视为与清洁能源议程背道而驰的政策举措：一项是削弱在新建住宅安装燃气锅炉的禁令，另一项是建议政府本周将放宽一项关键的电动汽车目标。唐宁街否认，这一背景加上伯纳姆仅在土耳其停留24小时的行程安排，表明英国缺乏应对气候变化的承诺。
Burnham arrives at COP this week with two more policy moves that could be similarly framed as antithetical to the clean-energy agenda: a move to water down a ban on installing gas boilers in new-build homes, and a suggestion that the government will this week relax a key electric vehicle target. Downing Street has denied that this backdrop, along with the optics of a timetable that will see Burnham spend just 24 hours in Turkey, indicates a lack of commitment to the planet.
除了一个没有法律约束力的承诺——到2035年全球35%的能源由电力满足——预计不会有重大宣布，气候大会正逐渐成为一场低调的活动。英国及西方国家缺乏雄心，除可负担性担忧外，还受到能源安全以及一种无力感驱动：只要中国、印度、美国等大得多的污染国未采取行动，应对气候变化的措施就是徒劳的。
With no major announcements expected, outside of a non-binding pledge that 35% of the world’s energy be met from electricity by 2035, COP is shaping up to be a low-key event. The lack of ambition in the UK and across the West is driven by a number of factors aside from the affordability concerns, including energy security and a sense that measures to tackle climate change are futile so long as much bigger polluters (China, India, the US) are failing to take action.
但气候危机不会因为绿色议题变得不合时宜就消失。英国夏季的创纪录高温展示了地球升温的速度之快，以及若不迅速采取行动，后果将何其深远。欧盟“哥白尼”气候变化服务周五报告称，上个月是全球有记录以来最热的10月，而联合世界气象组织警告，受厄尔尼诺现象影响，2027年将更热。世气组秘书长塞莱斯特·绍洛表示，这些预测给“超出图表范围”这一短语赋予了“新的含义”。我们无法放弃。但如果我们无法再承担以前看似触手可及的能源转型速度，我们就需要一个更好的方法。
But the climate emergency is not going away just because green issues have become unfashionable. The UK summer’s record hot spell showed how rapidly the planet is warming, and how profound the repercussions of that could be unless we act swiftly. The European Union’s Copernicus climate service reported on Friday that last month was globally the hottest October on record, while the UN's World Meteorological Organization warned that 2027 will be even hotter thanks to the El Nino effect. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the predictions give “new meaning to the phrase ‘off the charts.’”We can’t afford to give up. But if we can no longer afford an energy transition at a pace that previously seemed within reach, we need a better approach.
政界人士如今已认识到，自上而下的目标在很大程度上注定会失败，且难以让民众持续关注气候议程。让选民参与辩论要好得多，这样，例如向电动汽车的过渡就会变成车主们主动要求的事情，而不是让他们感觉是被强加的。正如我的同事哈维尔·布拉斯所指出的，在支持该技术的基础设施尚未到位之前，坚持优先发展可再生能源，其中有何明智之处？
Politicians now understand that top-down targets are largely doomed and make it difficult to keep people engaged with the climate agenda. Far better to include voters in the debate so that, for example, the transition to EVs become something drivers demand, rather than feel have been imposed on them. And as my colleague Javier Blas has pointed out, where’s the wisdom in insisting on renewables before the infrastructure is in place to support the technology?
高层会议自有其作用，但真正关心气候变化的领导人应留在国内，专注于重建应对气候变化的意愿与手段。
High-level meetings have their place, but leaders who truly care about climate change should stay home and focus on rebuilding the will and the means to address it.