英国最大的未开发油田之一的命运，成为首相安迪·伯纳姆应对全球变暖方式的一次考验，他正前往土耳其参加COP31气候会议。
The fate of one of the UK’s largest undeveloped oil fields has become a test of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s approach to global warming as he heads to the COP31 climate talks in Turkey.
多数英国内阁大臣支持在北海开采罗斯班克油气田，但该项目的决定预计要几周后才会做出，彭博新闻此前曾报道过。这个时间表意味着任何宣布都将在COP31之后，COP31周一开始，将持续两周。
A majority of UK cabinet ministers support drilling at the Rosebank oil and gas field in the North Sea, but a decision on the project isn’t expected for several weeks, Bloomberg News has previously reported. That timetable would put any announcement after COP31, which began on Monday and runs for a fortnight.
时间很敏感。多年来，英国一直敦促其他国家加速摆脱化石燃料，包括作为2021年格拉斯哥COP26会议的东道国。但中东冲突引发的燃料价格飙升和能源安全担忧，已经改变了政治格局。
The timing is sensitive. Britain has spent years urging other countries to accelerate their move away from fossil fuels, including as the host of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. But a spike in fuel prices and concerns over energy security, sparked by conflict in the Middle East, have changed the political landscape.
罗斯班克项目将为英国企业带来大量直接投资，并为国库带来数十亿英镑的税收收入，但反对者表示，这也将破坏英国长期以来宣布的到2050年将温室气体排放量降至净零的目标。
While Rosebank would bring significant direct investment for UK businesses as well as boosting the Treasury’s coffers with billions of pounds of tax revenue, detractors say it would also undermine the country’s long-stated goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero by 2050.
“批准罗斯班克将进一步严重打击英国作为全球气候领导者的声誉，”伦敦政治经济学院格兰瑟姆气候变化与环境研究所政策与传播主任鲍勃·沃德说。
“Greenlighting Rosebank will deal a further severe blow to the UK’s reputation as a global climate leader,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics.
“当英国因气候变化遭受越来越多的人员伤亡和生计损失时，允许新的化石燃料生产没有任何务实之处，”他说。
“There is nothing pragmatic about allowing new fossil-fuel production when the UK is suffering more and more damage to lives and livelihoods from climate change,” he said.
政府官员强调，该决定将由能源部长米亚塔·法恩布勒单独作出，作为准司法程序的一部分。她对罗斯班克油田的态度比对杰克多燃气田更为谨慎，她上个月批准了杰克多燃气田，称国内生产将增强英国的能源安全，并帮助为向更清洁能源的转型提供资金。官员表示，杰克多燃气田的决定符合英国的净零排放目标。
Government officials have stressed that the decision will be made by Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh alone as part of a quasi-judicial process. She has signaled a more cautious approach to Rosebank than to the Jackdaw gas field, which she approved last month, saying that domestic production would strengthen Britain’s energy security and help finance the transition to cleaner energy. Officials say the Jackdaw decision is consistent with the UK’s net-zero goal.
罗斯班克油田比杰克多燃气田面临更大的障碍，因为伯纳姆试图在COP31上证明英国仍致力于其具有法律约束力的碳目标。他将于周四上午向与会者发表讲话，随后飞往都柏林参加欧洲领导人聚会。
Rosebank presents a bigger hurdle than Jackdaw as Burnham seeks to demonstrate at COP31 that Britain remains committed to its legally binding carbon targets. He’s due to address delegates on Thursday morning, before flying to Dublin for a gathering of European leaders.
如果伯纳姆政府批准罗斯班克油田，“在COP31上的任何演讲都无法掩盖双重标准，”肯尼亚智库非洲动力转型组织主任穆罕默德·阿多说。伯纳姆“必须对抗石油行业，并将投资投向清洁能源。”
If Burnham’s government approves Rosebank, “no speech at COP31 will disguise the double standard,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a Kenya-based think tank. Burnham “must stand up to the oil industry and put investment into clean energy.”
自伯纳姆今年七月上台以来，英国能源政策的重点一直是降低成本。财政大臣约翰·希利上个月发布的首份预算案宣布了“能源新方针”，政府的优先事项将是“首先，也是最重要的是更便宜的能源，清洁电力是实现这一目标的关键。”然而，法恩布勒的前任埃德·米利班德也表示，他支持对北海采取务实的态度。预算案中确认的约20亿英镑（27亿美元）能源部门节省开支，最初由米利班德今年早些时候提出。
Since Burnham came to power in July, the focus of UK energy policy has been keeping costs down. Chancellor John Healey’s first Budget last month declared a “new course on energy,” in which the government’s priority would be “first and foremost cheaper energy, with clean power key to achieving this.”However, Fahnbulleh’s predecessor, Ed Miliband, also said he favored a pragmatic approach to the North Sea. About £2 billion ($2.7 billion) of energy department savings confirmed in the Budget were initially outlined by Miliband earlier this year.
由于伊朗战争扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的供应，英国批发天然气价格较一年前翻了一番多。大多数英国家庭使用天然气取暖，燃气发电厂在电价形成中仍起关键作用，这意味着该国特别容易受到全球价格波动的影响，且其对进口的依赖度预计今年冬季将增加。
UK wholesale gas prices have more than doubled from a year ago as the war in Iran disrupts supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Most British homes use gas for heating and gas-fired plants still play a key role in setting electricity prices, meaning the country is particularly exposed to global price swings, and its reliance on imports is expected to increase this winter.
当被问及本周伯纳姆在绿色政策上明显的退让，包括可能为罗斯班克油田项目亮绿灯时，他的发言人汤姆·韦尔斯表示，英国仍致力于其净零排放目标。
Asked this week about Burnham’s apparent retreat on green policies, including the potential green light for Rosebank, his spokesman Tom Wells said the UK remains committed to its net-zero goals.
韦尔斯对记者说：“首相出席第31届联合国气候变化大会（COP31）传递了一个明确信息，即英国仍是气候领域的领导者。我们拥有全球最雄心勃勃的计划之一，旨在摆脱化石燃料依赖并实现经济电气化。”伯纳姆参加气候谈判时主张，加速电气化将有助于降低世界对波动的化石燃料价格的敞口。但英国尚未签署一项承诺，即到2035年将全球电力消费在能源消费中的占比提高至35%，东道主土耳其正呼吁签署该承诺，且多个欧盟成员国已表示支持。伯纳姆政府辩称，各国应专注于兑现现有承诺。
The prime minister’s attendance at COP31 “sends a clear message that the UK remains a climate leader,” Wells told reporters. “We have one of the world’s most ambitious plans to transition away from fossil fuels and electrify our economy.”Burnham goes to the climate talks arguing that accelerating electrification will help reduce the world’s exposure to volatile fossil-fuel prices. But the UK is yet to sign up to a pledge to increase the global share of energy consumed coming from electricity to 35% by 2035, which summit host Turkey is calling for and which various European Union members have backed. Burnham’s government has argued that countries should focus on delivering existing commitments.
“英国习惯在缔约方大会上被视为领导者，但在电气化方面，我们却落后了，”“电气化英国”运动首席执行官、曾任COP26政府顾问的卡米拉·伯恩说。“这使该国陷入了尴尬的财政境地：因过度依赖石油和天然气导致通胀飙升，部长们每年冬天都需寻找数十亿英镑资金，以应对居高不下的能源账单，提供短期救济。”
“Britain is used to being seen as a leader at COP conferences, but when it comes to electrification, we are lagging behind,” said Camilla Born, who is the chief executive officer of the Electrify Britain campaign and was an advisor to the government for COP26. “That’s left the country in an uncomfortable fiscal position, with inflation soaring from overdependence on oil and gas, and ministers needing to find billions every winter for short-term relief from sky-high bills.”
