英伟达董事会正在调查涉及首席执行官黄仁勋的指控，同时对其领导力表示信心。
Nvidia's board is investigating allegations involving CEO Jensen Huang, while expressing confidence in his leadership.
英伟达已向人工智能基础设施公司作出巨额财务承诺，包括云服务采购和项目担保。
Nvidia has made substantial financial commitments to AI infrastructure companies, including cloud-service purchases and project guarantees.
美联储及其他金融机构正审查杠杆和相互关联的融资如何可能放大人工智能行业的下行风险。
The Federal Reserve and other financial institutions are examining how leverage and interconnected financing could amplify an AI downturn.
金融专家将技术投资者可能面临的损失与通过银行和信贷市场蔓延的更严重风险区分开来。
Financial experts distinguish potential losses for technology investors from the more serious risk of losses spreading through banks and credit markets.
围绕英伟达黄仁勋的性丑闻与间谍指控的旋涡，引发了一个令人担忧的问题：芯片制造商的麻烦会否通过英伟达为支持人工智能热潮而构建的紧密金融网络传播？
The swirl of sex-and-spying allegations around Nvidia Jensen Huang is raising a worrying question: Could trouble at the chipmaker spread through the tightly connected financial network Nvidia has built to support the artificial intelligence boom?
英伟达出现严重问题可能造成广泛的经济和金融损害。该公司已向其他企业作出数千亿美元的财务承诺以帮助行业发展，因而被称为“人工智能的央行”。美联储及其他金融机构正密切关注人工智能的建设，以监测意外事件可能导致全球金融体系不稳的可能性。
Serious problems with Nvidia could do far-reaching economic and financial damage. The company has made hundreds of billions of dollars in financial commitments to other firms to help the industry grow, earning it the nickname the "central bank of AI." The Federal Reserve and other financial institutions are closely watching the AI buildout to monitor for the possibility that an unexpected event could destabilize the global financial system.
早在七月，美联储官员就已讨论在人工智能行业出现问题时可能出现的“资产的广泛重新定价”。
Even back in July Fed officials were discussing the possibility a "broad-based repricing of assets" in the event of problems in the AI sector.
分析师以及现任和前任金融官员认为，2007-2008年金融危机的重演不太可能。前联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）监管者谢莉·贝尔表示，英伟达根本不存在“银行意义上的太大而不能倒”。与陷入困境的银行不同，英伟达不易受到突发信任危机的冲击，即使出现问题仍会生产客户愿意购买的产品。而且其巨额股本为其提供了缓冲。
A rerun of the 2007-2008 financial crisis isn't likely, according to analysts and current and former financial officials. Nvidia isn't "too big to fail in a bank sense at all," said Sheila Bair, a former government regulator who ran the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Unlike a troubled bank, Nvidia isn't vulnerable to a sudden loss of confidence and would still produce a product customers want to buy even if something went wrong. And its massive equity gives it a cushion.
但贝尔表示，监管机构需要密切关注银行和整个金融体系对英伟达及类似公司的风险敞口。“英伟达倒下将是一个相当震撼的事件，”她说。
But regulators need to watch carefully for exposure by the banks and the wider financial system to Nvidia and other firms like it, Bair said. "Nvidia going down would be a pretty seismic event," she said.
投资者仍对英伟达抱有很高期望，该公司将于周二公布财报。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，分析师预计其营收在当前财年将增长一倍以上，随后两年再大约翻一番。但由于黄仁勋与一名女子的关系正受到联邦调查局、国会和英伟达董事会的审查，据《纽约时报》报道，该女子被怀疑为中国从事间谍活动，分析师认为突然出现各种结果的可能性都存在，包括黄仁勋可能被免职。黄仁勋于1993年联合创办了这家公司。
Investors still have high hopes for Nvidia, which reports earnings on Tuesday. Analysts expect its revenue to more than double in the current fiscal year, and then to roughly double again over the following two years, according to LSEG data. But with Huang under scrutiny by the FBI, Congress, and Nvidia's board over his relationship with a woman who The New York Times reported was suspected of spying for China, analysts see a wide range of outcomes as suddenly possible, including the potential removal of Huang, who co-founded the company in 1993. Consumer prices rose more than expected in October, complicating Fed's inflation fight Fed Governor Waller opens door to possible half-point increase Consumers are showing signs of strain even as they keep spending 3 unexpected reasons the October jobs report was so strong The company didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
10月消费者价格涨幅超出预期，使美联储的抗通胀努力更加复杂 美联储理事沃勒为可能加息半个百分点打开大门 消费者即使继续支出也显现出压力迹象 10月就业报告如此强劲的3个意外原因 该公司未立即回应置评请求。英伟达董事会已对其首席执行官表示信心。
Nvidia's board has expressed confidence in its CEO.
从10月6日的峰值到周二收盘，英伟达股价下跌了30%，原因是民主党在11月3日中期选举中出人意料地获胜，促使市场对AI交易进行更广泛的重新评估。该股周三回升，截至午盘上涨超过4%。尽管如此，密切追踪AI背后资金流动的人士表示，即使英伟达出现更大幅度的亏损，也不太可能引发监管机构所防范的那种系统性问题。
Nvidia's stock fell 30% from its Oct. 6 peak through Tuesday's close, amid a broader reassessment of the AI trade prompted by Democrats' surprising victory in the Nov. 3 midterms. Its stock recovered Wednesday, rising more than 4% as of midday. Still, people who closely track the financial flows underlying AI say that even sharper losses by Nvidia likely wouldn't trigger the kind of systemic problems that regulators guard against.
然而，AI带来的风险仍让一些金融官员夜不能寐。他们正在警惕这样一种可能性：许多推动AI繁荣的因素可能同时逆转。例如，如果英伟达GPU芯片的价值下跌，可能会促使投资者质疑那些借钱购买芯片的公司是否有能力偿还债务。
And yet the risks flowing from AI are keeping some finance officials up at night. They are watching for the possibility that many of the factors that have helped the AI boom could reverse simultaneously. If the value of Nvidia's GPU chips fell, for instance, it could prompt investors to ask whether companies that borrowed money to buy them would be able to pay off their debts.
在这种情况下，大型科技公司向业内其他公司提供的财务援助，可能突然变成拖累自身增长的因素。科技公司将在股权下跌的同时遭遇信贷问题。大型科技公司的问题不会只局限于科技投资者的投资组合，而可能在整个经济中引发问题。
In that case, the financial assistance big tech firms have extended to others in the industry could suddenly become drags on their growth. Tech companies would have credit problems at the same time that their equity is falling. Problems among giant tech firms wouldn't stay contained to tech investors' portfolios, but could cause problems across the economy.
“我认为这是一个真实的担忧，因为经济和金融市场站在同一条腿上，这意味着一次回撤可能在两者之间产生相互强化的效应，”国际货币基金组织负责全球市场分析部门的助理主任杰森·吴说。
"I think that's a real concern because both the economy and financial markets are standing on the same leg, which means a drawdown could have reinforcing effects between the two," said Jason Wu, an assistant director at the International Monetary Fund who oversees the Global Markets Analysis unit.
吴是国际货币基金组织10月发布的《全球金融稳定报告》中某一章节的第一作者，该章节警告称，AI公司和投资者之间不断增长的杠杆可能引发更广泛的问题。所谓超大规模企业——即最大的科技公司——在规模达15万亿美元的投资级债务市场中，其债券发行占比在短短两年内从仅1%增长到了10%。对冲基金和散户投资者通过借债买入投资于内含杠杆的基金的股票，使本已高风险的押注变得更加危险。
Wu was the lead author of a chapter of the IMF's Global Financial Stability report published in October that warned about the potential for growing leverage among AI firms and investors to trigger broader problems. The so-called hyperscalers — the biggest tech firms — have grown from just 1% of bond issuance in the $15 trillion investment-grade debt market to 10% in just two years. Hedge funds and retail investors are making risky bets even riskier by taking on debt to buy stocks investing in funds that have embedded leverage.
英伟达正处于这一切的中心。该公司已多次出手，为被称为“新云”的小型AI公司提供支持，这些公司使用英伟达芯片建设数据中心，并将算力租赁给其他公司。除其他义务外，英伟达在7月披露，它已承诺从这些公司购买最多360亿美元的云服务。这有助于英伟达确保其AI芯片将有更多客户，也有助于这些公司更容易获得融资。
Nvidia is at the center of all of that. The company has repeatedly stepped in to help backstop smaller AI companies known as neoclouds, which build data centers using Nvidia chips and lease capacity to other firms. Among other obligations, Nvidia disclosed in July that it has committed to buy up to $36 billion in cloud services from those companies. That helps Nvidia ensure that there will be more customers for its AI chips, and it helps those companies find easier financing.
吴等人将这类安排称为循环融资。业务增长时，大公司帮助客户购买自己的产品可能是有成效的。但如果英伟达无法履行其义务，冲击将波及借款的公司和放贷的银行。相对不透明的私人信贷基金也大举放贷，助推了AI热潮，它们将如何应对是监管机构争论的话题。
Wu and others refer to these kinds of arrangements as circular financing. When business is growing, it can be productive for bigger firms to help their customers buy their products. But if Nvidia couldn't honor its obligations, it would ripple through the firms that borrowed the money and the banks that lent to it. Relatively opaque private credit funds have also lent heavily into the AI boom, and how they would fare is a subject of debate among regulators.
英伟达没有透露具体的合作伙伴，但CoreWeave、IREN等一些新型云服务公司已分别披露了与这家规模更大的公司的关系。
Nvidia didn't reveal its specific partners, but some neoclouds such as CoreWeave IREN have separately disclosed their relationships with the bigger firm.
最近几周，许多新型云服务公司承受着压力。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，以信用违约掉期衡量的CoreWeave债务保险成本从10月1日到11月5日上涨了94%，几乎翻倍，之后才趋于稳定。IREN一只2029年到期的可转换债券价格从11月3日到11月5日下跌了23%，同期该公司股价下跌了26%。
Many neoclouds have been under stress in recent weeks. The cost of insuring CoreWeave debt as measured by credit-default spreads, rose by 94% — nearly doubling — from Oct. 1 to Nov. 5, before settling, according to LSEG data. The price of an IREN convertible bond maturing in 2029 fell 23% from Nov. 3 to Nov. 5, amid a 26% decline in the company's share price.
英伟达的其他义务包括：对OpenAI和SB Energy计划在俄亥俄州建设的一个大型数据中心项目提供1050亿美元的分阶段担保，但须满足某些条件。英伟达还承诺为华尔街金融机构一项5000亿美元的信贷计划提供至多1250亿美元的兜底。
Nvidia's other obligations include a $105 billion phased guarantee to a major data center project in Ohio planned by OpenAI and SB Energy, subject to certain conditions. Nvidia promised to backstop up to $125 billion of a $500 billion credit program by Wall Street financial firms.
这些义务形式各异，不太可能同时到期，甚至可能永远不会同时到期。哥伦比亚商学院金融学教授斯泰恩·范·尼乌沃伯格估计，这些义务总额约为4000亿美元。
These obligations come in different forms and are unlikely to come due all at once, if ever. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a Columbia Business School finance professor, estimates them at $400 billion overall.
这是一个巨大的数字，但即便在股价下跌之后，也仍只占英伟达4万亿美元市值的一小部分。“公司得走到濒临灭绝的地步，这些担保才会陷入危险。”“我不想说这是一个安全的体系，但我确实想说，目前这个体系里有大量股本，”范·尼乌沃伯格说。
That is a huge sum, but still a small fraction of the $4 trillion market capitalization Nvidia has even after its stock decline. "The company would have to get to the brink of extinction before all these guarantees come into jeopardy." "I don't want to say it's a safe system, but I do want to say there's a lot of equity in the system right now," Van Nieuwerburgh said.
但在过去几天里，英伟达的麻烦使其与同行拉开了距离。本周，随着英伟达股价下跌，大多数新型云服务商的股价出现回升。这表明，就目前而言，投资者认为英伟达的问题是该公司的个别问题。
But in the past few days, Nvidia's troubles have separated it from the pack. Most neoclouds' equity prices have recovered this week as Nvidia's share price has fallen. That suggests investors see Nvidia's problems as specific to the company, for now.
与此同时，经济学的基本规律正驱使其他公司试图进军英伟达利润丰厚的芯片业务。
Meanwhile the basic laws of economics are driving other firms to try to move into Nvidia's lucrative chips business.
范尼乌韦尔伯格表示，博通、英特尔、谷歌、微软和OpenAI都在努力打造自己的人工智能芯片。
Broadcom Intel Google Microsoft and OpenAI all have efforts underway to build their own AI chips, Van Nieuwerburgh said.
随着时间推移，它们可能取代英伟达的产品。这可以限制该公司任何潜在麻烦所带来的经济冲击。
Over time, they could replace Nvidia's products. That could cap the economic fallout of any potential troubles at the company.
不过，范尼乌韦尔伯格补充说，也不可能完全排除人工智能交易突然碰壁的金融风险。他是在瑞士巴塞尔出席一场金融官员双月会议的间隙通过Zoom接受我采访的。
And yet it's impossible to entirely write off the financial risks of the AI trade suddenly hitting a wall, added Van Nieuwerburgh, who spoke to me over Zoom from the sidelines of a bimonthly meeting of finance officials in Basel, Switzerland.
他说，各国央行行长“显然对此非常、非常、非常焦虑，并在认真思考这些问题”。
Central bankers "are clearly very, very, very anxious about this and thinking hard about these questions," he said.