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民主党人准备在移民问题上与特朗普较量,但他们能取得多大成果?Democrats are ready to fight Trump on immigration. But how much can they achieve?

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11月11日 - 民主党议员正蓄势待发,准备在明年掌控国会后对抗总统唐纳德·特朗普的移民打击行动,矛头指向移民和海关执法局的执法手段,并扩大获得合法身份的途径,尽管他们能取得的成果有限。

Nov 11 - Democratic lawmakers are gearing up to fight President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown when in control of Congress next year, targeting ICE tactics and expanding paths to legal status despite limits on how much they can achieve.

民主党上周轻松赢得国会两院控制权,部分原因是选民对特朗普激进的逮捕和驱逐行动不满。但两党议员都预计,这场行动的设计者、特朗普的新任白宫幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒将继续主导移民政策。

Democrats handily won control of both chambers of Congress last week, fueled in part by voters’ dissatisfaction with Trump’s aggressive arrest and deportation campaign. But lawmakers from both parties expect Stephen Miller, the architect of that campaign and Trump’s new chief of staff, to go on driving immigration policy.

众议院和参议院的工作人员告诉路透社,他们预计总统将否决任何限制移民执法或扩大合法居留和入籍途径的立法。

House and Senate staffers told Reuters they expect the president to veto any legislation that would curb immigration enforcement or expand pathways to legal residency and citizenship.

特朗普的移民打击行动已成为一个政治软肋。根据路透社/益普索的民调,他在该问题上的支持率已从就任之初的50%降至38%,而拉丁裔选民在2024年倾向共和党后,在中期选举中大幅回摆支持民主党。

Trump’s immigration crackdown has become a political vulnerability, with his approval on the issue falling to 38% from 50% at the start of his presidency, based on Reuters/Ipsos polling, and Latino voters swinging sharply back to Democrats in the midterms after tilting Republican in 2024.

在周五接受哥伦比亚广播公司《60分钟》节目采访时,特朗普承认他的驱逐策略可能“过于强硬”。周一被记者问及此事时,特朗普回应称:“我的政策没有改变。”民主党人将在监督方面拥有更大空间。据工作人员称,他们已拟定一份国土安全部的调查目标清单。国土安全部是移民和海关执法局的上级机构,调查目标包括拘留中心条件、联邦探员致命使用武力,以及2025年将委内瑞拉人驱逐至萨尔瓦多大型监狱一事。

In a Friday interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” Trump acknowledged his deportation strategy may have been "too tough." Asked about that by reporters on Monday, Trump responded: "My policy has not changed." Democrats will have more latitude on oversight. They have already drawn up a list of investigative targets at the Department of Homeland Security, the parent agency of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, according to staffers, including detention center conditions, fatal use of force by federal agents and the 2025 deportation of Venezuelans to a Salvadoran megaprison.

“我们将调查本届政府将国土安全部武器化以对付美国人(以及)其失控的移民政策,”美国众议员、密西西比州民主党人本尼·汤普森在一份声明中告诉路透社。汤普森即将出任众议院国土安全委员会主席。

“We will investigate the administration weaponizing DHS against Americans (and) its out of control immigration policies,” US Representative Bennie Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat and the soon-to-be chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, told Reuters in a statement.

工作人员表示,民主党还计划推动提高国土安全部支出透明度的要求,说明该部门如何使用国会自去年以来拨付的超过1000亿美元资金。这些工作人员要求匿名。

The party also plans to push for greater transparency into how DHS is spending the more than $100 billion allocated by Congress since last year, staffers said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

周三,在美国国会大厦举行的新闻发布会上,来自西南部边境州的众议员和新当选议员一同出席。中间派得克萨斯州民主党人亨利·奎利亚尔表示,他已与特朗普政府官员沟通过,讨论将驱逐行动的重点放在罪犯身上。

At a Wednesday press conference at the US Capitol with House members and newly elected representatives from southwestern border states, Henry Cuellar, a centrist Texas Democrat, said he had already had conversations with Trump officials about focusing deportation efforts on criminals.

奎利亚尔说:“我们不会走极端。”他指的是全美那些把票投给民主党的保守派选民。

"We’re not going to be extreme," Cuellar said, nodding to conservative voters across the United States who cast their votes for Democrats.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在回应路透社就此事置评的请求时发表声明说:“如果民主党人认为美国人民想要一个极端主义、反美的移民议程,那他们就是严重误读了选民。”国土安全部未回应路透社的置评请求。

Asked for a response to this story, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Reuters in a statement: “The Democrats are colossally misreading the electorate if they think the American people want an extremist, anti-American immigration agenda.”The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

中间偏左智库“第三条道路”社会政策主任莎拉·皮尔斯表示,民主党在“移民议程上进入了一个全新的世界”。

The Democratic Party is in a “whole new world when it comes to their immigration agenda,” said Sarah Pierce, social policy director at the center-left Third Way think tank.

“他们显然已经摆脱了我们在拜登政府时期看到的政策,但尚未就移民应该是什么样子提出前瞻性愿景。”民主党人乔·拜登在2021年至2025年担任总统,他最初撤销了特朗普第一个四年任期内的部分限制性移民政策,但在其总统任期后期对边境采取了更强硬的立场。

“They’ve clearly broken from the policy that we saw under the Biden administration, but they have yet to offer a proactive vision for what immigration should look like.”Democrat Joe Biden, president from 2021 to 2025, initially rolled back some of the restrictive immigration policies of Trump’s first four-year term before taking a tougher approach to the border late in his presidency.

约束移民和海关执法局 一些民主党人在上周中期选举结束后已准备好投入战斗。

REINING IN ICE Some Democrats emerged from last week’s midterm elections ready for battle.

当选参议员佩吉·弗拉纳根在明尼苏达州庆祝胜利时说:“我们将把移民和海关执法局撕成碎片。”今年1月,联邦移民执法人员在明尼苏达州一次执法行动中枪杀了两名美国公民。

“We will rip ICE apart,” Senator-elect Peggy Flanagan said while celebrating her triumph in Minnesota, where federal immigration agents shot dead two US citizens during an enforcement surge in January.

美国华盛顿州民主党众议员、众议院司法委员会移民小组委员会首席议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔承诺,将传唤“每一个在街头绑架、拘留、驱逐和杀人的腐败分子”。一名民主党国会工作人员表示,仅仅是在国会山作证的前景,就可能改变联邦官员的行为。

US Representative Pramila Jayapal, a Washington state Democrat and the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee’s immigration subcommittee, pledged to summon “every single one of these corrupt people that kidnapped and detained and deported and killed people in the streets.”Just the specter of having to testify on Capitol Hill could change the behavior of federal officials, a Democratic congressional staffer said.

新泽西州温和派民主党众议员乔什·戈特海默在给路透社的一份声明中重点提到了他于3月提出的《移民和海关执法局标准法案》。

In a statement to Reuters, Josh Gottheimer, a moderate Democratic representative from New Jersey, highlighted the ICE Standards Act, which he introduced in March.

“探员需要接受真正的培训并佩戴随身摄像头,”他说。“除非在执行卧底行动,否则他们必须佩戴清晰的标识。他们必须与州和地方执法部门协调。”共和党人反驳说,他们已经为移民和海关执法局提供了购买随身摄像头的资金,并抵制了民主党人试图对该机构施加进一步约束的努力。

“Agents need real training and body cameras,” he said. “They need to wear clear identification unless they are on an undercover operation. They must coordinate with state and local law enforcement.”Republicans counter that they have already provided ICE with funding to purchase body cameras and have resisted Democratic attempts to place further guardrails on the agency.

在2024年的竞选活动中,特朗普毫不掩饰其打击移民的计划。但联邦探员蒙面持枪的做法——先是在明尼阿波利斯,随后蔓延至全国各地——引发了广泛的愤怒。

On the campaign trail in 2024, Trump made no secret of his plans for an immigration crackdown. But the tactics of masked, armed federal agents, first in Minneapolis and then across the country, generated widespread outrage.

改革体制 曾在美国参议院任职、了解当前国会移民讨论情况的何塞·帕拉表示,“选民上周移动了球门”,这可能为一些停滞不前的法案推进开辟道路。

REFORMING THE SYSTEM Jose Parra, a former US Senate aide with knowledge of current congressional discussions on immigration, said “voters moved the goal posts" last week, potentially opening the way for some stalled bills to advance.

他提到了《尊严法案》,这是一项两党法案,将为工人创造获得合法居留权的途径,同时加强边境安全并改革签证项目。

He pointed to the Dignity Act, a bipartisan bill that would create a path to legal residence for workers while tightening border security and reforming visa programs.

帕拉表示,另一项可能获得推动的法案是《梦想法案与承诺法案》,该法案将为童年时期来到美国的移民(即“梦想者”)开辟一条获得美国公民身份的途径。尽管盖洛普民调显示超过80%的美国人支持为“梦想者”提供合法入籍途径,但参议院一名共和党高级助手表示,即便是这项立法也可能难以推进,任何认真的尝试都更可能在下一届总统选举临近时才会出现。

Another bill likely to gain traction, Parra said, is the Dream and Promise Act, which would open a pathway to US citizenship for immigrants who arrived as children, known as “Dreamers.”Despite Gallup polling that shows more than 80% of Americans support a legal pathway for Dreamers, even that legislation might be difficult to advance, according to a senior Senate Republican aide, who said any serious attempt would likely come closer to the next presidential election.

帕拉同意这一判断,称共和党人可能想“把这个问题从桌面上拿掉,不让它在2028年成为针对他们的攻击口实”。特朗普的否决权很可能成为颁布全面移民改革、或收回已拨给移民和海关执法局的数百亿美元的不可逾越的障碍。

Parra agreed with that assessment, saying Republicans might want to "take that off the table and not let it be a messaging cudgel against them in 2028.”Trump’s veto power will likely be an insurmountable barrier to enacting comprehensive immigration reform or clawing back the tens of billions of dollars already appropriated to ICE.

“国会已经把太多权力让渡给了行政部门,”前移民和海关执法局高级官员克莱尔·特里克勒-麦克纳尔蒂说。“国会能做的事情确实存在限制。”不过,她表示,议员们可以利用拨款截止期限和参议院确认投票作为筹码。他们还可以通过将移民和海关执法局资金转用于医疗或学校午餐等受欢迎项目的措施,即使这些法案最终在特朗普的办公桌上被否决。

“Congress has ceded so much of its authority and so much of its power to the executive,” said Claire Trickler-McNulty, a former senior ICE official. “There are real limitations on how much Congress can do.”Still, she said, lawmakers could use funding deadlines and Senate confirmation votes as leverage. And they could pass measures redirecting ICE funding to popular programs like healthcare or school lunches, even if the bills die on Trump’s desk.

在周三的新闻发布会上,亚利桑那州民主党参议员鲁本·加列戈表示,他的政党将不得不与特朗普达成交易,议员们已经在讨论如何在2026年底前推进一项“梦想者”法案。

At Wednesday’s press conference, US Senator Ruben Gallego, Democrat of Arizona, said his party will have to cut deals with Trump, and that members were already discussing how to move forward with a Dreamers bill by the end of 2026.

“共和党人一直说,一旦我们有了安全、稳固的边境,我们就会进行移民改革,”加列戈说。“我们现在就有了。”

"Republicans have been saying we will have immigration reform as soon as we have a safe, secure border," Gallego said. "We have that right now."

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