
国会已为总统的大规模驱逐行动锁定资金,直至2029年。但部分共和党领袖正在软化其言辞。
Congress has cemented funding for the president’s mass deportation campaign until 2029. But some GOP leaders were softening their rhetoric.
与会者于10月25日在得克萨斯州韦斯拉科举行的Voto Latino“准备就绪,出发,投票”竞选集会上聆听发言。
Attendees listen during the Voto Latino's "Ready. Go. Vote." campaign rally in Weslaco, Texas, on Oct. 25.
总统唐纳德·特朗普的强硬移民信息助推了他两次赢得白宫,但他试图在中期选举中利用该议题作为楔子的努力落空,其后果正在迅速发酵。
President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration messaging powered his two White House victories, but his efforts to use the issue as a wedge in the midterms fell flat and the fallout is resonating quickly.
民主党人、共和党人以及特朗普本人周三均在为移民辩论的转向做定位,此前选民对总统第二任期发出了强烈谴责。
Democrats, Republicans and Trump himself were positioning themselves Wednesday for a shift in the immigration debate after voters issued a resounding rebuke of the president’s second term.
总统为这项国家最具分歧的政策事务之一敞开了达成两党协议的大门,潜在的共和党总统竞争者提出了关于如何以不同方式执法的看法,而民主党则将其信息传递重点放在问责上。以下是关于未来可能走向的五大看点:特朗普提出与民主党达成协议特朗普周二晚间通过电话连线福克斯新闻,向士气低落的支持者保证,他将继续利用否决权,对下一届壮大声势的民主党控制的国会形成强有力的制衡。
The president opened the door to a bipartisan accord on one of the nation’s most divisive policy matters, potential GOP presidential contenders offered their thoughts on how enforcement might be done differently and Democrats focused their messaging around accountability. Here are five takeaways on what could come next: Trump floats a deal with Democrats Trump phoned in to Fox News late Tuesday to reassure demoralized supporters that he would remain a strong check, through his veto powers, on an emboldened Democratic Congress next term.
但随后,在无人提问的情况下,他表示可能愿意在某些领域与对手合作。“我们可以在移民问题上与他们合作,我认为,”特朗普说。
But then, unprompted, he suggested there are areas in which he might be willing to collaborate with his rivals. “We can work with them on immigration, I think,” Trump said.
两党立法者多年来一直致力于推动全面的两党改革,而特朗普本人在2024年竞选总统时曾敦促共和党不要就边境政策变更达成协议。他的政策重点在于关闭边境、限制庇护申请以及兑现其承诺的大规模驱逐行动。
Legislators in both parties have spent years trying to pass comprehensive bipartisan reform, and Trump himself urged Republicans in 2024 not to strike a deal on border policy changes as he ran for president. His policies have focused on closing the border , restricting asylum and carrying out his promised mass deportation campaign .
但特朗普有时也曾释放出谈判意愿——例如在其第一任期内,他曾表示支持为童年入境的无证移民提供获得永久合法身份的途径。
But Trump has at times signaled a willingness to negotiate — suggesting in his first term, for example, that he was supportive of offering a path to permanent legal status for undocumented migrants who entered the country as children.
强硬的“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)基本盘对特朗普任何考虑给予无证移民合法身份的交易迹象,表现出了意料之中的冷淡态度。
The hard-line MAGA base was predictably frosty to any inkling that Trump would entertain a deal that grants legal status to undocumented immigrants.
“美国人民绝不想要大赦,”右翼新闻网红埃里克·多尔蒂在X平台上针对特朗普接受福克斯新闻采访一事写道。
“The American people do NOT want amnesty,” Eric Daugherty, a right-wing news influencer, wrote on X in response to Trump’s Fox News appearance.
但主张加强移民管控的移民研究中心执行主任马克·克里科里安表示,如果能以此换取永久终止某些移民项目——例如为逃离外国暴力或不安全状况者提供的临时保护身份——他有可能支持给予少量移民合法化身份。
But Mark Krikorian, executive director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for stricter immigration controls, said he would potentially support legalization for a modest number of immigrants in exchange for a permanent end to some immigration programs, such as temporary protected status for people fleeing violent or unsafe conditions in foreign countries.
“如果是针对性的、小规模的做法,那就比给1000万人大赦更容易推销,”克里科里安说。
“If it’s a targeted, smaller thing, then it becomes easier to sell than if you have amnesty for 10 million people,” Krikorian said.

佐治亚州福克斯顿市一处移民与海关执法局(ICE)拘留处理中心内的被拘留者。国会委员会成员正考虑动用传票权力,调查ICE的激进执法手段。(Corey Perrine/USA Today Network/Reuters Connect)民主党准备调查国土安全部、ICE民主党似乎并不急于开始与白宫就移民问题进行谈判。相反,他们的重点迅速转向传唤特朗普政府官员出席国会监督听证会,包括国土安全部部长马克韦恩·马林。
Detainees at an ICE processing center in Folkston, Georgia. Congressional committee members are eyeing using their subpoena power to investigate ICE’s aggressive enforcement tactics. (Corey Perrine/USA Today Network/Reuters Connect) Democrats prepare to investigate DHS, ICE Democrats seemed in no rush to begin negotiating with the White House over immigration. Rather, their focus quickly turned to hauling Trump administration officials in front of congressional oversight hearings, including Homeland Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
“@SecMullinDHS 腾出日程吧,”众议院国土安全委员会的民主党成员在X平台上写道,众议员本尼·汤普森(民主党-密西西比州)将于1月接任该委员会主席。
“@SecMullinDHS clear your calendar,” the Democrats on the House Homeland Security Committee, where Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Mississippi) will take over as chairman in January, wrote on X .
委员会成员一直在考虑动用传票权力,调查ICE的激进执法手段,以及数量激增的联邦移民拘留设施的财务交易和条件。然而,鉴于共和党主导的国会已授权ICE创纪录的资金水平直至2029年,民主党将难以遏制ICE。
Committee members have eyed using their subpoena power to investigate ICE’s aggressive enforcement tactics and the financial deals and conditions at the burgeoning number of federal immigration detention facilities. At the same time, however, Democrats will have limited ability to rein in ICE, given that the Republican-led Congress authorized record funding levels for the agency through 2029.
“我不认为在现任政府下移民执法会有任何重大变化,”自由意志主义智库卡托研究所的移民分析师大卫·比尔说。考虑到特朗普的“跛脚鸭”地位以及共和党失去对国会的控制,白宫进行全面变革的政治动力很低,比尔说。
“I don’t see any big change in immigration enforcement under this administration,” said David Bier, an immigration analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute. Given Trump’s lame duck status and the GOP’s loss of congressional control, the political imperative for the White House to make wholesale changes is low, Bier said.
“他们致力于此,”他说到特朗普的大规模驱逐议程。“他们不竞选连任,所以会更加不受约束。我看不出这种环境会产生更温和的移民政策。”
“They are committed to it,” he said of Trump’s mass deportation agenda. “They’re not running for reelection, so they’re going to be unchained even more so. I do not see how that environment produces more moderate immigration policies.”

一名联邦移民官员协助对南加州两家大麻农场进行突袭,摄于2025年。(Allison Dinner/EPA/Shutterstock)万斯暗示优先事项可能“改变”一位高级政府官员确实暗示了移民政策可能发生转变。副总统JD·万斯周三在一篇冗长的选后总结中表示,政府可以“改变”其执法优先事项,“更多地关注雇佣非法劳工的企业”。
A federal immigration official helps carry out raids on two Southern California cannabis farms in 2025. (Allison Dinner/EPA/Shutterstock) Vance suggests a ‘change’ in priorities One senior administration official did hint at a potential shift in immigration policy. In a lengthy election postmortem Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance suggested the administration could “change” its enforcement priorities “by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor.”
知名“让美国再次伟大”人士一直在推动职场执法,将其作为大规模驱逐运动的下一个战场,但白宫因商界的强烈反对而不愿认可此类战术。
Prominent MAGA figures have promoted workplace enforcement as the next frontier in the mass deportation campaign, but the White House has been reluctant to endorse such tactics amid fierce pushback from the business community.
支持此类行动的克里科里安表示,政府可能获得的次要优势是“削弱民主党即将推出的、完全是法西斯式的移民信息传递”。
Krikorian, who supports such efforts, said the administration could have a secondary advantage of “undermining the Democrats’ coming message on immigration that is all fascistic.”
“如果他们让一些雇主当众示众,并进行我所谓的‘公文包执法’而非‘防弹衣执法’,每六个月对整个行业进行一次审计,”他说。“这不太上镜,但可能有效得多。”
“If they do perp walks with some employers and they do what I call ‘briefcase enforcement’ rather than ‘body-armor’ enforcement, they do audits every six months of the whole industry,” he said. “That’s not super telegenic, but it’s likely to be way more effective.”
商界团体迅速将选举结果解读为对总统大规模驱逐行动的否定。美国商业移民联盟周三呼吁国会通过立法,保护“长期移民工人、‘梦想生’和农场工人”,并制止“破坏劳动力、紧张供应链并加剧通胀的无差别执法行动”。潜在2028年共和党候选人试探竞选信息万斯并非唯一一位本周试探移民相关竞选信息、目光投向2028年白宫竞选的共和党重量级人物。
But business groups quickly cited the election outcome as a repudiation of the president’s mass deportation campaign. The American Business Immigration Coalition on Wednesday called on Congress to pass legislation to protect “long-term immigrant workers, Dreamers, and farmworkers,” and to halt “indiscriminate enforcement actions that disrupt workforce, strain supply chains, and exacerbate inflation.”Potential 2028 GOP candidates test messaging Vance wasn’t the only top Republican with eyes on a potential White House bid in 2028 who was testing an immigration-related message this week.
曾被视为上一周期共和党总统提名主要竞争者的佛罗里达州两届州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯周二表示,特朗普2025年选择克里斯蒂·L·诺姆领导国土安全部是一个“错误”。特朗普去年春天解雇了诺姆。
Two-term Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once considered a leading GOP presidential contender in the last cycle, said Tuesday that Trump’s choice of Kristi L. Noem in 2025 to lead the Department of Homeland Security was a “mistake.”Trump fired Noem last spring.
德桑蒂斯批评诺姆在大城市开展大规模移民突袭,更多是做秀而非实效。
DeSantis criticized Noem’s use of large-scale immigration raids in major cities as more theatrical than effective.
“她想要这些冲突,因为这能制造新闻、制造冲突。这不是做事的方式,”德桑蒂斯在接受《斯蒂芬·A·史密斯直球秀》播客节目采访时表示。随后,他将这种做法与自己在佛罗里达州的移民执法举措形成对比,称该州加强了与联邦当局的合作,“以一种更无缝的方式运作”。
“She wanted these conflicts because it created news, it created conflict. That’s not the way you do it,” DeSantis said while appearing on the Straight Shooter with Stephen A. Smith podcast. He then contrasted the approach with his own immigration enforcement efforts in Florida, where the state has increased cooperation with federal authorities, which he said “works in a more seamless fashion.”
“展望‘28年,会有共和党人想效仿特朗普总统的地方,也会有公众希望另辟蹊径的地方,”德桑蒂斯说。“那么,你如何穿针引线?”
“When you’re looking at ′28, there’s going to be things Republicans want to emulate with President Trump, and things the public wants a different direction on,” DeSantis said. “Then how do you thread that needle?”

人们于10月10日在纽约聚集,抗议一起涉及移民与海关执法局官员的枪击事件。(安吉丽娜·卡察尼斯/美联社)西班牙裔选民展示政治肌肉拉美裔选民在2024年显著转向特朗普,但在周二却“反叛”,帮助民主党在得克萨斯州参议院和州长选举中取得惊人胜利——一个长期被共和党主导的州。全国范围内,在那些以拉美裔为主体的县中,选民向民主党参议院候选人的支持率上升了约25个百分点。
People gather in New York to protest a shooting involving ICE officers on Oct. 10. (Angelina Katsanis/AP) Hispanic voters flex their political muscle Hispanic voters shifted toward Trump in significant numbers in 2024. But they revolted on Tuesday, helping power Democrats to stunning wins in the U.S. Senate and governor races in Texas, a state long dominated by Republicans. Nationally, in counties where most voting-age citizens are Latino, voters shifted about 25 points toward Democratic Senate candidates.
这个增长迅速选票群体将在2028年再次发挥关键作用,两党都可能会认真考虑回应他们的关切,包括移民问题。
The fast-growing voting bloc will again play a crucial role in 2028 and both parties will likely be mindful of responding to their concerns, including on immigration.
“这是对特朗普议程的明确否定,”美国之声组织执行主任 Vanessa Cárdenas 表示,”我想强调一下,我们拥有如此大的选民群体,特别是拉美裔选民,所表达的强烈否定,是多么重要。”
“This was a clear repudiation of Trump’s agenda,” said Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a pro-immigration group. “I just want to underscore how significant it is that we have such a big rejection from a majority of voters, but specifically of Latino voters.”
Cárdenas 表示不指望政府会放松执法力度,也不相信特朗普会与民主党达成任何协议。她说民主党必须富有创意,既要追究政府在其执法议程上的过度行为,又要提出一个积极的愿景,说明国家如何成功管理移民体系。
Cárdenas said she does not expect the administration to soften its approach to enforcement, and she does not buy the idea that Trump would pursue a deal with Democrats. She said Democrats must be creative on finding ways to hold the administration to account for the excesses of its enforcement agenda while also offering an affirmative vision of how the country can successfully manage the immigration system.
“这是一个非常复杂的问题,但我认为我们没有给选民他们应得的评价,”她说,“他们想要的是,是的,边境管控,但他们同时也非常支持入籍的途径,尤其是那些在这里生活了很久的人。我认为这为他们提供了坚实的基础。”
“This is a very complex issue, but I think we don’t give voters the credit they deserve,” she said. “What they want is a combination of, yes, border control, but they’re also super supportive of a path to citizenship, particularly for people who have been here a long time. I think that is solid ground for them.”