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特朗普移民强硬政策引发反弹,或将在中期选举中反噬自身How Trump's immigration crackdown sparked a backlash that could boomerang in the midterms

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2022年12月20日,移民聚集在美国与墨西哥边境的里奥格兰德河畔,得克萨斯州国民警卫队成员封锁了美国边境墙的一处缺口。(美联社照片/摩根·李,资料图)Migrants congregate on the banks of the Rio Grande at the U.S. border with Mexico on Dec. 20, 2022, where members of the Texas National Guard cordoned off a gap in the U.S. border wall. (AP Photo/Morgan Lee, File)

蒂姆·沙利文,尼古拉斯·里卡尔迪 明尼阿波利斯 —— 两年前唐纳德·特朗普竞选总统时,美国人的电视屏幕上充斥着移民混乱的画面。边境两侧都有帐篷营地,成群结队的人们跋涉穿越中美洲,人们担心新来者会让社会服务不堪重负。

TIM SULLIVAN, NICHOLAS RICCARDI MINNEAPOLIS — When Donald Trump was running for president two years ago, Americans’ television screens were filled with images of migrant chaos. There were tent camps on both sides of the border, caravans of people trudging through Central America and concerns about newcomers overwhelming social services.

随着乔·拜登总统在特朗普进一步收紧政策后加强移民执法,那种动荡逐渐平息。如今,任何混乱都发生在美国街头,暴力甚至致命的冲突定义了一场驱逐行动,旨在实现强硬派将所有非法滞留者连根拔起的目标。

That turmoil faded as President Joe Biden tightened immigration enforcement after Trump clamped down even more. Now any chaos is on American streets, where violent and even deadly clashes have defined a deportation campaign that’s designed to fulfill hardliners’ goals of uprooting anyone in the country illegally.

这种转变有助于解释为何特朗普兑现承诺的努力演变成了一场反弹,削弱了助推他重返白宫的核心议题之一。虽然特朗普在边境管控方面仍保有一定支持,但民调显示选民不认可他在移民问题上的做法,这种惊人的逆转可能会削弱共和党在中期选举中保持对国会控制权的努力。

The shift helps explain why Trump’s effort to fulfill his promises has turned into a backlash, undermining one of the core issues that fueled his return to the White House. While Trump maintains some support for his handling of the border, polling shows voters disapprove of his approach to immigration, a striking turnaround that could undermine Republican attempts to maintain control of Congress in the midterms .

“美国人民支持强有力的边境安全,”马里兰州参议员克里斯·范霍伦(民主党人)表示,他已成为政府政策的著名批评者。“他们得到的却是撕毁宪法、大规模驱逐以及在明尼阿波利斯街头杀害美国公民。”特朗普的盟友称,总统是自己成功的受害者。

“The American people supported strong border security,” said Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen , a Democrat who has become a prominent critic of the administration’s policies. “What they got instead was shredding the Constitution, mass deportations and killing American citizens on the streets of Minneapolis.”Trump’s allies say the president is the victim of his own success.

“边境灾难以及人们直接走过边境、被释放进入美国却无人追责的现象,已难以忽视,”移民研究中心执行主任马克·克里科里安说。克里科里安表示,特朗普大幅减少了非法越境,“这在政治上往往是不利的”。克里科里安赞扬特朗普采取了低调但极其有效的大规模抓捕行动,实现了月月创纪录的逮捕人数。根据国土安全部数据,美国移民与海关执法局官员8月逮捕了近5.1万名非法在美移民,高于7月的4.9万和6月的4.3万。

“The disaster at the border and the impunity of people just walking over and being released into the country was hard to ignore,” said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies. Trump dramatically reduced illegal border crossings, Krikorian said, “and that’s often politically bad.”Krikorian praised Trump for adopting low profile but highly effective sweeps that have achieved month after month of record arrests. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers arrested almost 51,000 immigrants in the country illegally in August, according to the Department of Homeland Security, up from 49,000 in July and 43,000 in June.

根据移民政策研究所估计,过去一个财年约有66万人被驱逐出境,未达政府每年驱逐100万人的目标。

An estimated 660,000 people have been deported in the past fiscal year, according to the Migration Policy Institute, short of the administration’s goal of 1 million annually.

拜登的移民政策仍是共和党今年的常规攻击靶子。特朗普在佛罗里达州最近的一场集会上说,民主党让移民“从世界各地涌过我们的边境”。“如果他们在中期选举中获胜,他们还会再这么干,”他警告说。

Biden’s immigration policies remain a regular target for Republicans this year. Trump said at a recent Florida rally that Democrats let migrants “pour across our borders from all over the world.”“If they win in the midterms, they’ll do it again,” he warned.

2024年,特朗普反复警告移民“入侵”。“他们正在毒害我们国家的血液,”他说非法越境者。他坚称(实为虚假说法)犯罪激增是移民造成的,还称移民吃家庭宠物。

In 2024, Trump warned repeatedly of an immigrant “invasion.”“They’re poisoning the blood of our country,” he said of people crossing the border illegally. He insisted, falsely, that immigrants were behind spikes in crime and eating household pets.

尽管特朗普因其言论招致批评,但他对这一问题的关注引起了选民共鸣,这些选民目睹了拜登政府时期非法移民激增,2023年12月墨西哥边境逮捕人数达到25万的纪录高位。

Even as Trump drew criticism for his rhetoric, his focus on the issue resonated with voters who had seen illegal immigration soar during the Biden administration, with border arrests from Mexico reaching a record 250,000 in December 2023.

特朗普的胜利似乎将重塑移民政治。46名众议院民主党人和12名参议院民主党人加入共和党阵营,投票支持《莱肯·莱利法案》,该法案以一名被非法在美男子杀害的佐治亚州女学生命名。该法律要求对被控谋杀及其他暴力犯罪的非公民实施无保释羁押。

Trump’s victory seemed poised to reshape immigration politics. Forty-six Democrats in the House and a dozen in the Senate joined Republicans in voting for the Laken Riley Act, a bill named after a Georgia student killed by a man in the country illegally. The law requires detention without bond for noncitizens accused of murder and other violent crimes.

特朗普上任后,将驱逐行动推向了更高强度。马里兰州居民基尔马尔·阿布雷戈·加西亚是被卷入这张大网的人之一。尽管法院下令禁止,政府仍将他送往其出生地萨尔瓦多,并将其关押在该国臭名昭著的中央监狱,该监狱也被用来关押其他被特朗普驱逐的人员。

After Trump took office, he cranked deportations into higher gear. Kilmar Abrego Garcia , a Maryland resident, was one of the people caught up in that net. Despite a court order forbidding it, the administration sent him to his native El Salvador, where he was confined to that country’s notorious central prison that was also used to house other Trump deportees.

美国最高法院指示政府“促成”阿布雷戈·加西亚返回,范霍伦飞往萨尔瓦多与他会面。这位参议员回忆说,一些民主党人曾质疑在总统如此受欢迎的问题上对抗特朗普的明智性。现在,他的政党在这一问题上更加大胆。

The U.S. Supreme Court directed the administration to “facilitate” Abrego Garcia’s return, and Van Hollen flew to El Salvador to meet with him. Some Democrats questioned the wisdom of confronting Trump on an issue where the president was so popular, the senator recalled. Now his party is more emboldened on the issue.

“我们已经从场边的那些冷嘲热讽,变成了民主党明确投票削减ICE(美国移民与海关执法局)经费,”范霍伦说。

“We’ve gone from some of that sniping on the sidelines to a clear vote among Democrats to defund ICE,” Van Hollen said.

特朗普打压行动的早期形象是边境巡逻队高级指挥官格雷戈里·博维诺,他身穿战术装备、大摇大摆地穿梭于突击行动中,并调遣部队前往洛杉矶和芝加哥,在那里他指挥了一场针对公寓楼的直升机突袭。

The early face of the Trump crackdown was top Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino , who swaggered through raids in tactical gear and deployed forces to Los Angeles and Chicago, where he led a helicopter raid on an apartment building.

但明尼阿波利斯是转折点。超过2000名联邦执法人员被派往该市,蒙面特工从无标识车队中涌出的场景变得司空见惯。数万名抗议者走上街头。

But Minneapolis was the turning point. More than 2,000 federal officers were sent to the city, and scenes of masked agents spilling from convoys of unmarked vehicles became commonplace. Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets.

两名美国公民——雷妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂,均年仅37岁——在与特工的对峙中丧生。随后几周,白 House 将博维诺和国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆 推到了一边。

Two U.S. citizens — Renee Good and Alex Pretti , both 37 — were killed during confrontations with agents. In the weeks that followed, the White House pushed aside Bovino and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem .

亚历克斯的父亲迈克尔·普雷蒂本周表示,家人仍因围观者拍摄的枪击视频而深受困扰。他随身携带一把合法持枪许可的枪支,放在枪套里,所有视频都没有显示他在被杀前的时刻拔枪或攻击联邦特工。

Michael Pretti, Alex’s father, said this week that the family is still troubled by the bystander videos of the shooting. He had a holstered gun that he was legally allowed to carry, and none of the footage shows him brandishing the weapon or attacking federal agents in the moments before he was killed.

“我认为,看到一名和平且身处自己社区中的美国公民,在倒地时被从背后、在背部多次开枪击中,这让许多美国人挥之不去,”他对记者说。

“I think it haunts many Americans to see a U.S. citizen who was peaceful and in his community shot multiple times on the back, in the back, while on the ground,” he told reporters.

逮捕人数在杀戮发生后下降,尽管最终又回升至创纪录水平。但政治局势变得更加复杂,共和党的移民议题信息出现了分裂。

Arrests dropped after the killings, although they eventually returned to record numbers. But the politics became more complicated, and Republicans’ immigration message has fractured.

有像田纳西州联邦参议员马莎·布莱克本这样的强硬派,她在竞选州长时誓言要加大驱逐力度。还有古裔美国人、佛罗里达州联邦众议员玛丽亚·埃莱娜·萨拉查,她在白宫外拍摄竞选视频时批评特朗普对移民的打压行动。

There are hardliners like U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, who is vowing more deportations as she runs for governor. And there’s Cuban-American Florida Rep. Maria-Elena Salazar, who criticized Trump’s migrant crackdown in a campaign filmed outside the White House.

萨拉查提出了一项立法,允许非法滞留在国内的移民只要在其他方面遵守法律就可以继续留下。该法案的发起人之一是共和党联邦众议员盖布·埃文斯,他是一位墨西哥移民的孙子,正试图在竞选科罗拉多州的一个摇摆选区时与特朗普划清界限。

Salazar has sponsored legislation that would allow immigrants who are in the country illegally to remain as long as they have otherwise followed the law. Among the sponsors is Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, the grandson of a Mexican immigrant, who is trying to distinguish himself from Trump while running in a Colorado swing district.

在新罕布什尔州,竞选空缺参议员席位的前参议员约翰·苏努努批评了美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)的战术以及该机构使用面具隐藏特工身份的做法。

In New Hampshire, former Sen. John Sununu, running for an open Senate seat, has been critical of ICE tactics and the agency’s use of masks to conceal agents’ identities.

共和党人经常试图将移民问题与选民对高物价的担忧联系起来。俄亥俄州联邦参议员乔恩·赫斯特德猛烈抨击民主党对手谢罗德·布朗,称他是“反复投票提高你们的税收,并将这些税款给予非法移民”的人。

Republicans often try to connect immigration to voters’ concerns about high prices. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted blasts Democratic opponent Sherrod Brown as someone who “voted to raise your taxes repeatedly and give those tax dollars to illegals.”

“共和党试图因为乔·拜登未能有效控制边境而让选民反对民主党,”长期移民权益活动家、为中间派民主党组织“第三条道路”提供咨询的弗兰克·沙里说。“所以他们试图将民主党定义为支持开放边境、不认真清除罪犯。”但这发生在许多民主党候选人正在远离拜登时代移民信息传递之际。

“Republicans are trying to turn voters against Democrats because of what Joe Biden did in failing to control the border effectively,” said Frank Sharry, a longtime immigrants’ rights activist who consults with the centrist Democratic group Third Way. “So they’re trying to define Democrats as being for open borders and not serious about removing criminals.”But that comes as many Democratic candidates are shifting away from Biden-era messaging about immigration.

在得克萨斯州,参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科自称“边境安全民主党人”,主张增加边境巡逻人员并加大监控技术的使用。

In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico calls himself a “border security Democrat” who wants to hire more Border Patrol officers and increase the use of surveillance technology.

塔拉里科批评特朗普的许多移民政策是浪费性的,但在批评上一任民主党总统时也毫不留情。

Talarico criticizes many of Trump’s immigration policies as wasteful, but doesn’t hold back when it comes to criticizing the last Democratic president.

“乔·拜登及其政府在南部边境问题上辜负了我们,”他在7月于得克萨斯州一个与墨西哥接壤的县举行的新闻发布会上表示。

“Joe Biden and his administration failed us on our southern border,” he said in a July press conference in a Texas county on the Mexico border.

即使是一些最自由派的民主党候选人,如密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德,也小心翼翼地表明他们想要强有力的边境管控。

Even some of the most liberal Democratic candidates, like Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed, are careful to note that they want strong borders.

“据我所知,没有一位处于激烈竞争中的候选人说的不是‘我们必须确保边境安全’和‘我们必须驱逐罪犯’,”夏里说。里卡迪在丹佛发回报道。

“I don’t know of a candidate who’s in a swing race who’s saying anything other than ‘We’ve got to secure the border’ and ‘We’ve got to remove criminals,’” Sharry said. Riccardi reported from Denver.

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