伦敦，11月12日 —— 当AI公司Anthropic在预计下周首次公开募股（IPO）后开始交易时，其头几周的股价将主要取决于谁被迫买入，而不是谁想买入。投资者正在研究SpaceX 6月成功的股市首秀以寻找线索。
LONDON, Nov 12 - When AI firm Anthropic starts trading after its expected IPO next week, its share price in the first few weeks will largely be determined by who is forced to buy it rather than who wants to buy it. And investors are examining SpaceX’s successful June stock market debut for clues.
埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX改写了巨头上市的剧本，因为纳斯达克等主要美国指数提供商重写了纳入规则，确保在其上市后的前15天内，一大笔被动资金会买入股份。
Elon Musk’s SpaceX altered the playbook for stock-market listing by behemoths, as major US index providers such as Nasdaq rewrote the rules around inclusion, ensuring a massive pool of passive money would buy the shares in the first 15 days of its listing.
投资者预计Anthropic也会出现同样的动态。Claude聊天机器人的创造者计划通过出售8.25亿股、每股定价70至78美元，筹集高达644亿美元，使公司估值高达1.4万亿美元。
Investors expect the same dynamic with Anthropic. The Claude chatbot creator aims to raise up to $64.4 billion by selling 825 million shares priced between $70 and $78 each, valuing the firm at up to $1.4 trillion.
过去，主要指数提供商通常要在公司首秀后数周或数月才将其加入基准指数。与SpaceX一样，Anthropic将在上市后5至15天内被纳入至少六大指数，包括富时美国指数、标普全市场指数和纳斯达克100指数。
In the past, major index providers generally did not add companies to their benchmarks until weeks or months following their debut. Like SpaceX, Anthropic will be added to at least six big indexes, including FTSE’s USA index, the S&P Total Market Index and the Nasdaq 100, within 5 to 15 days of its listing.
伦敦贝伦伯格银行指数事件主管Carsten Hesse表示：“Anthropic是SpaceX IPO的一面镜子。就这方面而言，它在交易前15天拥有相同的指数相关驱动因素。”
"Anthropic is a mirror image of the SpaceX IPO. In that regard, it has the same index-related drivers over the first 15 days of trading," said Carsten Hesse, London-based head of index events at Berenberg.
总部位于伦敦的指数再平衡分析公司Intropic估计，跟踪指数的基金产生的被动需求将占Anthropic发行股份的约28%，即大约190亿美元。指数再平衡基金和对冲基金将竞价买入股份，以预先布局应对这一预期的被动需求。
London-based index rebalance analytics firm Intropic estimates passive demand from index-tracking funds will account for about 28% of Anthropic’s shares offered, or roughly $19 billion. Index-rebalancing funds and hedge funds will bid on shares to pre-position for this expected passive demand.
SpaceX将其750亿美元发行规模的五分之一预留给散户投资者，是标准做法的两倍多。Anthropic也在这样做。
SpaceX earmarked a fifth of its $75 billion offering, which valued the firm at nearly $1.75 trillion, for retail investors, more than double the standard. Anthropic is doing the same.
指数基金和散户投资者抢购了近一半公开发售的 SpaceX 股份，其他基金经理也为了迎合这一需求而进行布局。这使得最初公开发售的那部分流通股产生了上涨动能。
Index funds and retail investors lapped up nearly half the SpaceX shares sold, alongside other fund managers positioning for that demand. That created upward momentum for the fraction of outstanding shares that were initially sold publicly.
同样，Anthropic 此次首次公开募股（IPO）发售的股份仅占其流通股的 6% 左右。SpaceX 和韩国企业 SK 海力士（于 7 月在纳斯达克上市）的股价均在交易第三天出现大幅上涨，这一天也是股票期权开始交易的日子，衍生品投机者通过买入股票来对冲押注。分析师表示，Anthropic 股票将出现类似的早期买盘。
Similarly, a mere 6% or so of Anthropic’s outstanding shares are being offered at the IPO Both SpaceX and South Korean firm SK Hynix, which listed on Nasdaq in July, saw a big pop in their shares on the third day of trading, which is when stock-option trading began and speculators in those derivatives hedged their bets by buying shares. Anthropic shares will see similar early buying, analysts said.
“等不到第 5 天、第 10 天、第 15 天，等到指数调仓或纳入真正实施时，”Hesse 说，“正如我们在 SpaceX 身上看到的，人们会提前买入。”
"You don’t wait till day 5, day 10, day 15, when you see the implementation of the index upgrades or inclusions," said Hesse. "As we’ve seen with SpaceX, people are buying early."
指数交易的“游戏规则改变者”到第 3 天，SpaceX 股价较开盘首日每股 150 美元的首发价上涨了 50%，并在前 15 个交易日里一直远高于每股 135 美元的 IPO 发行价。此后，随着投资者为首批解禁期到来做准备——届时员工和其他 IPO 前投资者获准抛售股份——股价开始回落。
GAME-CHANGER FOR INDEX TRADES By day 3, SpaceX shares were up 50% from their opening-day debut at $150 a share, and remained well above the $135 IPO sale price for the first 15 days. Following that, they drifted lower as investors braced for the first of a series of lock-up expirations, when employees and other pre-IPO backers are cleared to sell shares.
Intropic 股票分析师 Ruben Pathmanathan 表示，缺乏价格弹性的需求助推了上涨动能。
Ruben Pathmanathan, equity analyst at Intropic, said the price-inelastic demand helped drive momentum.
“SpaceX 之所以可能成为蓝图，是因为上市时多重市场力量汇聚：指数纳入、被动需求和紧缺的流通盘。这些因素共同塑造了股份的定价和早期交易走势，”他说。
“What makes SpaceX a potential blueprint is how several market forces came together around the listing: index inclusion, passive demand and a tightly held float. Together, they shaped how the shares were priced and how they traded in the early days," he said.
Anthropic 的走势可能略有不同，因为它允许持有约 15% 股权的员工在首日出售部分股份。
Anthropic’s trajectory could be slightly different, as it is allowing employees who own roughly 15% of its equity to sell some shares on the first day.
Anthropic 还在通过与基石投资者的单独私募融资 260 亿美元，投资方包括 Alphabet 旗下的 Google、英伟达和超威半导体。这些股份不设锁定期。
Anthropic is also raising $26 billion via a separate private sale with cornerstone investors, including Alphabet’s Google, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. Those shares do not have a lock-up.
新的指数规则和大规模流动已成为能够从指数调整交易中获利的基金的重大转折点。
The new index rules and massive flows have been a game-changer for funds that profit from index rebalancing trades.
“这是市场的一种演变，”Invesco全球ETF及指数投资负责人Brian Hartigan表示，他指的是此类规模庞大且在上市前已建立巨大私有权益的重大发行，称其为市场的新颖之处。
"It’s a bit of an evolution of the market," said Brian Hartigan, global head of ETFs and index investments at Invesco, referring to the novelty of such large issues that have massive private stakes built before they’ve gone public.
指数调整交易传统上受限于IPO规模，因为过多基金试图抢在有限的被动需求之前进行交易。但这对规模庞大的IPO发行来说不再是问题。
Index rebalancing trades have traditionally been constrained by the size of the IPO, with too many funds trying to front-run limited passive demand. That is less of an issue for giant IPO sales.
“这是对对冲基金而言的难得机会，因为过度拥挤的风险更受限制，”Candriam股权市场中性策略负责人Celia Fseil表示。
"This is the type of opportunity that the arbitrage community likes because the risk of overcrowding is more limited," said Celia Fseil, head of equity market neutral strategy at Candriam.
根据彭博社报道，两支在Millennium Management交易指数变化的团队在6月赚取了37亿美元，Millennium未确认该报告。
Two teams trading index changes at Millennium Management made $3.7 billion in June, Bloomberg reported. Millennium would not confirm the report.
“如果你从事指数调整，这些可能是你一生中难得的事件，”位于康涅狄格州的Altisma Capital Management首席投资官Bill Park表示。GOOGL现在是否是一个好买入？
"If you’re in index rebalancing, these are probably the events of a lifetime," said Bill Park, CIO of Connecticut-based Altisma Capital Management. Is GOOGL a bargain right now?
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