11月13日 - 两位知情人士表示，机构投资者对Anthropic首次公开募股（IPO）的兴趣超过了SpaceX早期路演的水平。
Nov 13 - Institutional-investor interest in Anthropic’s initial public offering is outpacing the early days of SpaceX’s roadshow, according to two people familiar with the companies’ offerings.
Anthropic的路演预计将持续到下周三，届时这家人工智能公司预计将为这笔640亿美元的交易定价。Anthropic及其投行正在纽约、波士顿和旧金山与潜在投资者会面，以评估该发行的需求，上述知情人士和另一位知情人士表示。
The Anthropic roadshow is scheduled to run through next Wednesday, when the AI company is expected to price the $64 billion deal. Anthropic and its investment banks are meeting prospective investors in New York, Boston and San Francisco to gauge demand for the offering, one of the people and a third person familiar with the matter said.
该IPO在路演首日周二结束时吸引了大约两倍于可供认购股份的订单，上述知情人士之一表示。到周四结束时，账簿已超额认购六倍，另一位知情人士表示。路透社此前报道，SpaceX的IPO在路演第二天结束时已超额认购两倍。
The IPO drew about two times the orders for the shares available by the end of Tuesday, the first day of the roadshow, one of the people said. By the end of Thursday, the book was six times oversubscribed, one other person said. SpaceX’s IPO was two times oversubscribed by the end of its second day of roadshow, Reuters previously reported.
银行家和投资者表示，尽管这种个位数的认购率对于许多备受期待的IPO来说被视为适度，但考虑到Anthropic发行的规模，其需求令人印象深刻。他们预计，随着路演的推进，Anthropic的订单簿将大幅增长，反映出强劲的早期需求，上述两位知情人士表示。
While that single-digit subscription rate would be considered modest for many highly anticipated IPOs, bankers and investors said demand is impressive for the Anthropic offering given the size of the IPO. They expect Anthropic’s order book to grow substantially as the roadshow progresses, reflecting strong early demand, two of the people said.
上述知情人士表示，包括股份需求在内的IPO细节可能会发生变化，他们要求匿名。Anthropic拒绝置评。
Details of the IPO, including the demand for shares, could change, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Anthropic declined to comment.
在路演期间，投资者在评估该发行和公司估值时，正面临两个根本性问题：Anthropic是否能保持其领先地位，因为Alphabet旗下的谷歌等竞争对手在开发先进AI模型方面正在迅速赶上；以及其Claude聊天机器人是否能在知识工作者的更广泛市场中，超越编程领域保持其领先地位。
During the roadshow, investors are grappling with two fundamental questions as they assess the offering and the company’s valuation: whether Anthropic can maintain its lead as competitors such as Alphabet’s Google rapidly catch up in developing advanced AI models, and whether its Claude chatbot can maintain its lead beyond coding, in the broader market for knowledge workers.
AI时代的不确定性 这些问题凸显了为一家收入快速增长但长期竞争地位仍不确定的公司估值所面临的挑战。投资者正试图判断，AI行业最终是会由一两家公司主导，还是能够支撑多家领先企业，以及如果竞争对手提供可比模型，Anthropic是否能维持高端定价。
TIME OF UNCERTAINTY IN AI The questions underscore the challenge of valuing a company whose revenue is growing fast but whose long-term competitive position remains uncertain. Investors are trying to determine whether the AI industry will ultimately be dominated by one or two players or support several leading companies, and whether Anthropic can sustain premium pricing if rivals offer comparable models.
与此同时，投资者也在权衡Anthropic在IPO路演期间提供的信息的局限性。一位参加路演会议的投资者表示，该公司未对部分提出的问题提供详细解答。Anthropic拒绝就该投资者的言论发表评论。
Meanwhile, investors are also weighing the limitations of the information Anthropic is providing during its IPO roadshow. One investor who attended a roadshow meeting said the company had not provided detailed answers to some of the questions raised. Anthropic declined to comment on the investor’s remarks.
虽然公司在路演期间并非总能回应每一个投资者问题，但一些投资者仍对在AI行业更广泛的洗牌背景下，以高估值进行发行保持谨慎，而有限的披露使一些问题未得到解答。
While companies are not always able to address every investor question during roadshows, some investors remain cautious about an offering at a high valuation amid a broader shakeout in the AI sector, with the limited disclosure leaving some questions unanswered.
据一位参加该会议的投资者称，路演期间的一次团体会议也没有安排允许机构投资者拨入并提问的电话会议——这与标准路演做法有所不同。该人士补充说，高盛和摩根士丹利的代表在该会议上大多是照本宣科，而非征求提问。摩根士丹利拒绝发表评论。高盛未立即回应置评请求。
One of the group meetings during the roadshow also did not include a conference call allowing institutional investors to dial in and ask questions, according to an investor who attended that meeting — a departure from standard roadshow practice. Representatives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley largely read from prepared remarks rather than solicit questions at that meeting, the person added. Morgan Stanley declined to comment. Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
收入处于估值争议中心 投资者对Anthropic收入增长速度的估计差异巨大，导致潜在估值结果范围广泛。
REVENUE AT CENTER OF VALUATION DEBATE Investors are arriving at widely different estimates of how quickly Anthropic’s revenue will grow, creating a broad range of potential valuation outcomes.
支撑估值模型的关键数据是Anthropic预计2028年的收入，银行将其估算在约2700亿至2800亿美元，并据此应用企业价值与收入倍数，得出估值结果，两位了解相关预测的人士表示。对于像Anthropic这样的高增长公司，投资者在评估其价值时，通常会对未来收入增长给予较大权重。
The key figure underpinning valuation models is Anthropic’s projected 2028 revenue, which banks estimate at around $270 billion to $280 billion and use to apply enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples and arrive at their valuation estimates, two of the people familiar with the projections said. For a high-growth company like Anthropic, investors typically give significant weight to future revenue growth when assessing its value.
一些卖方预测显示，Anthropic 2026年的收入约为520亿至530亿美元，2027年将上升至1350亿至1370亿美元，上述人士之一表示。
Some sell-side projections put Anthropic’s revenue at around $52 billion to $53 billion in 2026, rising to $135 billion to $137 billion in 2027, one of the people said.
某位已在IPO中下单的投资者表示，部分买方预测对2026年和2027年的数字比上述预测高出10%至15%。
Certain buy-side projections are running 10% to 15% higher for 2026 and 2027, an investor who has placed an order in the IPO said.
但买方预测也存在显著差异。一位曾对IPO进行尽职调查但最终决定不参与的投资者持更为保守的看法，其预测约比卖方对2028年的估计低30%。
But buy-side forecasts also vary significantly. One investor who conducted due diligence on the IPO but decided not to participate has a more conservative outlook that is about 30% below the sell-side estimate for 2028.
卖方与买方预测之间的差异很常见。卖方分析师的估计往往更贴近公司自身的预测，而投资者可能会对未来增长设定更乐观或更保守的假设。反过来，公司在IPO前有动力设定保守目标，为上市后超额完成估计、提升预期留出空间。
Differences between sell-side and buy-side forecasts are common. Sell-side analysts’ estimates tend to track a company’s own projections more closely, while investors may build in more optimistic or conservative assumptions about future growth. Companies, in turn, have an incentive to set conservative targets ahead of an IPO, leaving room to beat estimates and raise expectations after listing.
估值模型中使用的可比公司也反映了为Anthropic寻找直接同行的困难。SpaceX和网络安全公司CrowdStrike被列为参考基准之一，上述了解相关预测的人士之一表示。
The comparable companies used in the valuation models also reflect the difficulty of finding direct peers for Anthropic. SpaceX and cybersecurity company CrowdStrike are among the names being used as benchmarks, one of the people familiar with the projections said.
对Anthropic预计2028年收入的关注，与SpaceX形成对比。SpaceX的估值论据依赖于预计2029年的收入，一些投资者认为该预测尤其激进。相比之下，Anthropic的估值争议，其锚点是更接近其预期上市年份的预测。
The focus on Anthropic’s projected 2028 revenue contrasts with SpaceX, whose valuation case relied on projected 2029 revenue that some investors viewed as particularly aggressive. Anthropic’s valuation debate, by comparison, is anchored in a forecast for a year closer to its expected public listing.