
AI股票的秋季暴跌重塑了科技公司常用的可转换证券市场,这些公司热衷于利用此类工具低成本融资,这一变化让投资者松了一口气。
The autumn rout in AI stocks has reset the market for convertible securities often used by technology firms keen to raise funds cheaply, in a development that has investors breathing a sigh of relief.
分析师表示,本周涌现的一波可转债发行,其条款更均衡地兼顾了融资公司与希望分享后续股市上涨红利的投资者的诉求。
A wave of convertible issues this week bears terms that more evenly balance the priorities of fundraising companies with those of investors who want to participate in further stock-market rallies, analysts said.
根据独立咨询公司Matthews South的数据,Dropbox于周二定价的11亿美元可转债发行,转股溢价约为25%,比第三季度35%的平均水平低约10个百分点。
Dropbox's $1.1 billion convertible offering, priced on Tuesday, carried a conversion premium of about 25%, about 10 percentage points below the third-quarter average of 35%, according to data from independent advisory firm Matthews South.
Akamai本周发行了两笔可转债,票面利率均为1%,高于第三季度0.75%的平均水平。
Akamai issued two convertible bonds this week, each paying 1% in interest, up from the average rate of 0.75% in the third quarter.
Azimut Group全球固定收益主管Nicolo Bocchin表示:“我一直希望看到过去几天出现的这种调整。”他指的是上周AI公司股价的大幅下跌。
"I was hoping for an adjustment like the one we had in the past couple of days," said Nicolo Bocchin, global head of fixed income at Azimut Group, referring to the steep selloff in AI companies last week.
可转债对科技公司特别有吸引力,因为它们允许企业以低于传统债券的利率借款。如果股价升至预定水平以上,它们赋予投资者将债务转为股票的权利。
Convertible bonds have been particularly attractive to technology companies because they allow firms to borrow at lower interest rates than conventional debt. They give investors the option of converting their debt to shares if the stock price rises above a predetermined level.
投资者表示,在2026年前九个月发行潮涌现期间,定价条款偏向发行人,其中许多发行人为AI企业。
Pricing terms were skewed in favor of issuers during a deluge of issuance, much of it by AI players, in the first nine months of 2026, investors said.
据Dealogic数据,截至10月底,美国可转债发行规模增至约1536亿美元,而去年同期为986亿美元。
US convertible sales increased to about $153.6 billion by the end of October from $98.6 billion over the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic.
Bocchin说:“过去几年,这些交易的定价溢价达到了我记忆中从未有过的水平。”
"In the past few years, these deals were priced with premiums that I don't remember in history," said Bocchin.
Alphabet (GOOGL.O) 于6月发行了190亿美元可转债,Oracle (ORCL.N) 于2月发行了50亿美元,此外CoreWeave (CRWV.O) 和Nebius (NBIS.O) 等新兴云厂商也进行了多轮发行。
Alphabet (GOOGL.O) sold $19 billion of converts in June and Oracle (ORCL.N) $5 billion in February, alongside repeated deals from neoclouds such as CoreWeave (CRWV.O) and Nebius (NBIS.O).
“可转债市场对AI叙事的敞口相当不均衡,”巴克莱可转债策略主管维努·克里希纳(Venu Krishna)表示。他补充称,今年创纪录发行量中约70%与AI相关,45%为核心AI基础设施。
"The convert market is quite disproportionately exposed to the AI narrative," said Venu Krishna, head of convertibles strategy at Barclays. About 70% of the record issuance this year is AI-linked and 45% is core AI infrastructure, he added.
这并非首次出现条款宽松的年份。根据Matthews South的数据,2025年有46笔可转债交易不计息,而2024年为11笔。
This isn't the first year in which terms loosened. In 2025, 46 convertible bond deals carried no interest, according to data from Matthews South, compared with 11 in 2024.
但对AI热潮可持续性的疑问带来了现实检验。富时罗素美国可转债指数(.UCBINDEXW0039)从6月的历史高点下跌了约17.5%,使其今年以来的涨幅不足2%。
But questions about the sustainability of the AI boom have brought forth a reality check. The FTSE Russell US Convertible bonds index (.UCBINDEXW0039) has fallen about 17.5% from its all-time peak in June, leaving it up just under 2% for the year.
巴克莱数据显示,美国可转债上月下跌超过6%,创下2008年以来最差的10月表现。
US convertibles lost more than 6% last month, their worst October since 2008, Barclays data showed.
“我们到了一个阶段,一些新发行的可转债定价水平相当激进。而在过去几周,市场对此做出了回应,”惠灵顿资产管理固定收益投资组合经理迈克尔·巴里(Michael Barry)表示。
"We got to a point where there were some frothy new issues being priced at levels that were fairly aggressive. And in these last couple of weeks, the market has responded to that," said Michael Barry, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management.
最近,可转债买家青睐数据中心以外的发行人。Xcel Energy(XEL.O)上周出售了22亿美元的可转债,金融科技公司SS&C(SSNC.O)通过一笔扩大规模的交易筹集了约10亿美元。
Buyers of convertible bonds have favored issuers outside data centers recently. Xcel Energy (XEL.O) sold $2.2 billion of converts last week and fintech firm SS&C (SSNC.O) raised about $1 billion in an upsized deal.
这两只债券均高于发行价交易,Advent Capital Management总裁兼首席投资官特蕾西·梅特兰(Tracy Maitland)表示。
Both were trading above their offer prices, said Tracy Maitland, president and chief investment officer at Advent Capital Management.
Calamos Investments联合首席投资官兼联合可转债策略主管埃利·帕斯(Eli Pars)表示,很难预测可转债发行量何时会反弹。
Eli Pars, co-chief investment officer and co-head of convertible strategies at Calamos Investments, said it was hard to predict when convertible volumes would bounce back.
“但我没有看到任何理由,认为它应该来自其他发行人,而不是一直以来的那些发行人。这可能意味着更多的‘新云’发行。”
"But I haven't seen any reason why it should be coming from issuers other than those it's been coming from. That probably means more neocloud issuance."