SpaceX的巨型火箭“星舰”于2026年9月28日星期一在得克萨斯州星舰基地进行试飞。“星舰”是有史以来建造的最大火箭，但它目前还无法运载宇航员。埃里克·盖伊/美联社今天晚些时候，SpaceX计划为其庞大的新型火箭“星舰”进行迄今为止最具雄心的测试。如果一切顺利，它将从得克萨斯州南部的发射台升空，绕地球飞行一圈，然后在22个半小时后垂直降落在同一个发射台。
SpaceX's mega rocket Starship makes a test flight from Starbase, Texas, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026. Starship is the largest rocket ever built, but it can't yet carry astronauts. Eric Gay/AP Later today, SpaceX is planning the most ambitious test yet of its massive new rocket Starship. If all goes well, it will lift off from a pad in South Texas, circle the Earth and then land vertically at the same pad 22 and a half hours later.
对于这款公司创始人埃隆·马斯克表示希望有一天能用它将宇航员送往火星的火箭来说，这次测试将是一个重大的里程碑。但专家表示，“星舰”的快速发展也可能在未来几年里让该公司的最大支持者之一陷入困境：美国航空航天局。
The test would be a major milestone for a rocket that company founder Elon Musk says he hopes will one day carry astronauts to Mars. But experts say the rapid development of Starship could also end up stranding one of the company's biggest boosters over the years: NASA.
这是因为随着SpaceX加大新型火箭的研发力度，该公司曾表示将停止飞行一款名为“猎鹰9号”的小得多火箭。“猎鹰9号”负责发射该公司的“龙”飞船，该飞船目前是美国唯一能够将美国宇航员运送到国际空间站并将其接回的航天器。
That's because as SpaceX ramps up its new rocket, it has said it will stop flying a much smaller one called Falcon 9. Falcon 9 launches the company's Dragon capsule, which is currently the only American spacecraft capable of ferrying NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station.
追踪太空行业的Quilty Space公司研究主任凯勒·亨利表示：“由于‘龙’飞船已经成为一种非常成功且可靠的交通工具，它成了宇航员进入轨道的事实上的途径。”
"Because Dragon has become such a successful and reliable vehicle, it became the de facto way for astronauts to get to orbit," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a firm that tracks the space industry.
根据美国航空航天局9月的一项公告，该航天局已与SpaceX签约，将增加三次飞往国际空间站的飞行任务。假设这些任务以六个月为增量连续执行，且没有与SpaceX签订进一步的飞行合同，“龙”飞船的飞行将只能维持到2028年。
According to a NASA announcement in September, the space agency has contracted with SpaceX for three additional flights to the International Space Station. That would only allow Dragon to fly through 2028, assuming the missions were flown consecutively in six month increments and no further flights are contracted with SpaceX.
SpaceX总裁格温·肖特韦尔曾将“龙”飞船比作一辆小型货车。她表示：“去火星的公路旅行需要六个月——所以你不会想呆在小型货车里。我们绝对希望从旧技术过渡到新技术。”蒂莫西·A·克拉里/法新社通过盖蒂图片社国际空间站目前定于2030年退役。“我爱你们”美国国家航空航天局（NASA）目前面临的问题，与早期局势形成鲜明反差，那时是 SpaceX 严重依赖 NASA。2008 年，“猎鹰 9 号”火箭多次发射失败后，这家航天发射公司已濒临崩溃。
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has compared the Dragon Capsule to a minivan. "The road trip to Mars is six months — so you don't want to be in the minivan," she said. "We definitely want to move from the older technology to the newer technology." TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images The space station is currently set to retire in 2030. "I love you guys" The current problem facing the space agency marks a stark reversal from earlier times, when it was SpaceX that was depending heavily on NASA. In 2008, following multiple failures of the Falcon 9, the space launch company was on the ropes.
“那时我们已是强弩之末，几乎没钱了，”埃隆·马斯克在 2014 年接受哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《60 分钟》节目采访时说。就在圣诞节前几天，NASA 给出了一份大合同。“我甚至拿不稳电话，脱口而出：‘我爱你们！’”马斯克说。
"We were running on fumes at that point, we had virtually no money," Elon Musk told CBS' 60 Minutes in a 2014 interview. Then, just days before Christmas, NASA came through with a big contract. "I couldn't even hold the phone, I just blurted out, 'I love you guys!'," Musk said.
在随后十年里，源源不断的 NASA 合同，以及最终获得的五角大楼合同，占了公司营收的很大份额。但这一切在 2020 年发生改变，当时 SpaceX 推出了一项名为“星链”的订阅制卫星互联网服务。星链订阅收入很快超过了火箭发射收入。
For the next decade, a steady diet of NASA and eventually Pentagon contracts were responsible for a big share of the company's revenue. But all that changed in 2020, when SpaceX launched a subscription satellite internet service called Starlink. Starlink subscriptions quickly eclipsed the money made from launching rockets.
NASA 的 SpaceX Crew-13 机组成员（从左至右）加拿大航天局（CSA）宇航员约书亚·库特里克、NASA 宇航员卢克·德莱尼和杰西卡·沃特金斯，以及俄罗斯国家航天集团宇航员谢尔盖·捷捷里亚特尼科夫，走出尼尔·A·阿姆斯特朗运营和检查大楼，前往肯尼迪航天中心发射台，摄于 2026 年 10 月 1 日，佛罗里达州卡纳维拉尔角。SpaceX 目前是 NASA 宇航员前往国际空间站的主要运载工具。
NASA's SpaceX Crew-13 crew members (L-R) CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Joshua Kutryk, NASA astronauts Luke Delaney and Jessica Watkins, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov walk out of the Neil A. Armstrong Operations and Checkout Building ahead of the launch at Kennedy Space Center on October 01, 2026 in Cape Canaveral, Florida. SpaceX is currently the main ride for NASA astronauts trying to reach the ISS.
贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社北美分社 据 SpaceX 最新财务报告，截至今年 9 月，公司从航天发射业务获得的营收约为 21 亿美元。相比之下，星链收入约为 128 亿美元，其快速增长的 AI 业务收入约为 109 亿美元。
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images North America Today, according to SpaceX's latest financial report the company made around $2.1 billion in revenue from space launches through September of this year. By contrast, Starlink pulled in around $12.8 billion, while its rapidly growing AI business made around $10.9 billion.
逐步退役“猎鹰” “星舰”是 SpaceX 更新、更大规模业务的核心。这家航天发射公司已在用它将星链新款、更强大的 V3 卫星送入轨道。展望未来，马斯克表示希望用该火箭将数据中心送入太空。
Winding down Falcon Starship is central to SpaceX's newer, larger businesses. The space launch company is already using it to send its new, powerful V3 satellites for Starlink into orbit. Further down the road, Musk has said he wants the rocket to deliver data centers to space.
马斯克今年早些时候表示：“一旦星舰（Starship）能够以每周数次的频率可靠飞行，把极其稀缺的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）工程与生产资源转移到星舰上、将发射频率提升至每天数次就说得通了，这意味着将逐步淘汰猎鹰（Falcon）。”
"Once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon," Musk said earlier this year.
太空探索技术公司总裁格温·肖特韦尔（Gwynne Shotwell）9月在洛杉矶举行的“全明星”（All In）峰会上表示：“我们绝对希望从旧技术转向新技术。顶部装有龙飞船（Dragon）的猎鹰9号就像一辆小型货车……去火星的公路旅行需要六个月——所以你不会想待在小型货车里。”问题在于，这辆小型货车非常适合载着宇航员去空间站进行短途旅行。事实上，它目前是执行这一行程唯一的美国选项。
"We definitely want to move from the older technology to the newer technology," SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said at the All In summit in Los Angeles in September. "A Falcon 9 with a Dragon capsule on top is like a minivan. … The road trip to Mars is six months — so you don't want to be in the minivan." The problem is that the minivan is perfect for taking astronauts on a short jaunt to the space station. In fact, it's currently the only American option for making the trip.
亨利表示，制造太空舱既耗时又昂贵。事实证明，美国航空航天局（NASA）几乎是唯一愿意支付费用的机构，这使得它对于像太空探索技术公司如今这样的企业来说，是一个非常小的市场。他说：“如今，载人航天并没有一个强大的商业市场。”
Henry said building space capsules is time-consuming and expensive. And as it turns out NASA is about the only one willing to pay, making it a very small market for a company like the one SpaceX has become. "Today there is not a strong commercial market for human spaceflight," he said.
发射缺口 猎鹰火箭的退役将对载人航天之外的领域产生巨大影响。基尔蒂太空公司（Quilty Space）最近的一项分析发现，从现在到2030年，商业市场可能会出现大约150次发射的短缺，据报道，五角大楼一直在仓促为国家安全卫星寻找搭载火箭。美国太空军（U.S. Space Force）在给美国国家公共电台（NPR）的一份声明中表示，其已确保了直至2028年的猎鹰9号发射任务，并“有信心”其他供应商能够填补这一空缺。
Launch gap The retirement of the Falcon rocket will have huge impacts beyond human spaceflight. A recent analysis by Quilty Space finds that the commercial market may end up short by some 150 launches between now and 2030, and the Pentagon has reportedly been left scrambling to find rides for national security satellites. In a statement to NPR, the U.S. Space Force said it had secured Falcon 9 launches through 2028 and that it was "confident" other suppliers would be able to pick up the slack.
追踪太空探索技术公司的电信分析公司TMF Associates总裁蒂姆·法拉尔（Tim Farrar）认为，所有这些都不太可能改变太空探索技术公司的想法。
None of that is likely to change SpaceX's mind, according to Tim Farrar, the president of TMF associates, a telecom analysis firm that tracks SpaceX.
他说，这家公司的业务规模早已远超其创立之初的业务。“SpaceX现在手头有大量的事情要做。”
The company has grown far beyond its launch business, he said. "SpaceX has now got an enormous amount on its plate."
他说，特别是，“它从美国宇航局那里赚到的钱并不多”。“尽管单次任务似乎很可能是盈利的，但它们不过是小恩小惠。”目前仍不清楚SpaceX何时会退役“猎鹰9号”火箭。该公司没有回应美国国家公共电台的置评请求，但桑德威尔在峰会的公开言论中暗示，其竞争对手波音公司可能会转而飞往空间站。
In particular, "it's not making a lot of money out of NASA," he said. "Although it seems likely that the individual missions are profitable, they're small potatoes." It's still not clear when SpaceX will retire the Falcon 9 rocket. The company did not respond to NPR's request for comment, but in her public comments at the summit, Shotwell implied that a rival company, Boeing, could fly to the station instead.
她说：“我认为，波音在开发其载人舱方面获得的资金可能比我们获得的还要多。所以我们只是打算让他们做点生意。他们应该用他们的飞船飞行。”波音公司的飞船被称为“星际客机”，在整个研发过程中一直问题不断。2024年，该航天器首次载人飞船送宇航员进入太空的尝试遭遇故障，导致原计划在国际空间站进行为期八天的任务变成了长达九个月的停留。宇航员于次年3月乘坐SpaceX的飞船返回地球。“星际客机”的下一次试飞定于冬季进行，载人飞行则将在2028年的某个时候进行。
"Boeing has been paid, I think, probably more than we have been paid to develop their human capsule. So we're just going to let them have some business," she said. "They should fly their capsule." The Boeing capsule, known as the Starliner, has been beset by problems throughout its development. In 2024, failures with the vehicle's first attempt to take astronauts to space resulted in a planned eight-day mission aboard the ISS becoming a nine-month stay. The astronauts returned home on a SpaceX vehicle in March of the following year. The next Starliner test flight is set to take place over the winter, with a crewed flight sometime in 2028.
对法勒而言，SpaceX的选择符合其商业利益，但他想知道美国宇航局是否配得上更好的待遇。他说：“他们基本上是SpaceX没有破产的幕后功臣。人们会希望有一点忠诚度。”
For Farrar, SpaceX's choices make sense for its business, but he wonders whether NASA deserves better. "They were responsible essentially for SpaceX not going bankrupt," he said. "One would hope that there's a bit of loyalty."