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民主党会试图从五角大楼拨款法案中删除美以倡议吗?Will Democrats try to strip US-Israel initiative from Pentagon funding?

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2020年10月9日,美国弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿,五角大楼大楼。[卡洛斯·巴里亚/路透社]The Pentagon building is seen in Arlington, Virginia, US, October 9, 2020. [Carlos Barria/Reuters]

在美国中期选举中取得压倒性表现后,倡导者表示,民主党处于独特有利位置,可以从一项五角大楼拨款法案中删除一项有争议的条款,该条款将把美国和以色列军事工业的融合写入法律。

After a commanding performance in the United States midterm elections, advocates say Democrats are uniquely positioned to strip a controversial measure from a Pentagon funding bill that would codify integration of the US and Israeli military industries.

今年早些时候,民主党领导层已经反对《2027财年国防授权法案》(NDAA),这是一个庞大的1.15万亿美元方案,连同补充法案一起,包含了特朗普总统军事愿望清单上大部分项目的资金,包括“金穹顶”导弹盾和他所谓的“特朗普级”战列舰计划。

Earlier this year, Democratic leadership had already opposed the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a sprawling $1.15 trillion package that, along with supplemental bills, includes funding for much of President Donald Trump’s military wishlist, including the “Golden Dome” missile shield and his so-called “Trump-class” battleship plan.

包括参议院少数党领袖舒默在内的党内高层官员,将他们的反对理由归结为特朗普政府与伊朗的战争以及美国民众面临的更广泛的负担能力问题。倡导者表示,领导层还必须传递一个信息,即美以国防生产融合绝不可行。

Top party officials, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, had attached their opposition to the Trump administration’s war with Iran and wider affordability issues facing US citizens. Advocates say the leadership must also send the message that the US-Israeli defence production integration is a non-starter.

参议院版本的法案第219条要求设立一个所谓的“美以国防技术合作倡议”,旨在“扩大并加速双边国防技术研究、开发、测试、评估、协调和产业合作”。

The current Senate version of the bill, under Section 219, calls for the creation of a so-called “United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative” that would “expand and accelerate bilateral defense technology research, development, testing, evaluation, coordination, and industrial cooperation”.

“要求进步”组织高级政策顾问卡万·哈拉齐安告诉半岛电视台:“民主党现在需要明确表示,他们对NDAA的支持取决于实质性修改,包括美以军事融合和禁止对伊朗战争条款。”

Cavan Kharrazian, senior policy adviser at Demand Progress, told Al Jazeera that “Democrats need to make it clear right now that their votes for the NDAA depend on substantial changes, including US-Israeli military integration and Iran war prohibition”.

反对五角大楼拨款在历史上一直是政治敏感问题,议员们担心显得不支持美军。但虽然该拨款方案的一个版本于5月在共和党控制的众议院通过,民主党却在7月通过程序性投票拖延了参议院版本。

Opposition to Pentagon funding has historically been politically fraught, with lawmakers wary of appearing to not support the US military. But while a version of the funding package passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives in May, Democrats delayed the Senate version via a procedural vote in July.

他们现在面临12月11日的截止日期,届时临时拨款将到期,这意味着他们需要通过另一项临时拨款措施或完整的NDAA,以维持五角大楼的资金。

They now face a December 11 deadline when current stopgap funding ends, meaning they would need to pass another stopgap measure or the full NDAA to maintain Pentagon funding.

由于《国防授权法案》(NDAA)需要60票才能通过,民主党在本届国会会议剩余的日子里拥有巨大的影响力,Kharrazian解释说。与此同时,共和党面临着时间紧迫的压力,因为民主党将在1月控制国会两院。

Because the NDAA requires 60 votes to pass, Democrats can exercise outsized leverage in the remaining days of this congressional session, Kharrazian explained. Republicans, meanwhile, face a ticking clock before Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress in January.

“[民主党]有能力利用阻挠议事阻止《国防授权法案》通过,直到这些条款被删除,他们需要承诺阻止对《国防授权法案》的审议,直到这些修改得到保证,”Kharrazian说。

“[Democrats] have the leverage to filibuster the NDAA until these provisions are stripped out and they need to commit to blocking NDAA consideration until those changes are secured,” Kharrazian said.

“如果民主党随后允许法案在条款保持完整的情况下继续推进,仅仅进行修正案投票是不够的。”“充分行使影响力”诚然,民主党渴望向选民表明他们正在解决可负担性问题,已发出信号称将寻求对当前《国防授权法案》及相关补充法案进行一些彻底改革。国防行业分析师预测,五角大楼的资金将大幅收紧,这也包括一项停滞不前的3600亿美元补充拨款包。然而,尚不清楚这是否会延伸到美以军事发展倡议。

“An amendment vote alone is insufficient if Democrats then let the bill advance with the provisions intact.”‘Assert full leverage’To be sure, Democrats, eager to show they are delivering on voter affordability concerns, have signalled they will seek some overhaul to the current NDAA and related supplemental bills. Defence industry analysts have predicted a major constriction in Pentagon funding, which also includes a stalled $360bn supplemental package.

“我们必须推动制定一种更现实、更可持续的国家安全方法——一种不需要超过1万亿美元的国防预算、也不需要通过大幅削减关键国内项目来支付的方法,”众议院军事委员会民主党首席议员Adam Smith众议员在11月3日选举结果出炉后不久发表声明说。

However, it has been unclear if that would extend to the US-Israeli military development initiative.

他呼应了Schumer的观点,后者在7月的一封“致同僚信”中写道,共和党寻求一项五角大楼拨款法案,“该法案将向国防工业倾注数十亿美元,而美国社区急需的投资却迟迟未到位”。

“We must push for the development of a more realistic and sustainable approach to our national security – one that does not require a defense budget in excess of $1 trillion or one paid for with draconian cuts to critical domestic programs,” Representative Adam Smith, currently the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement shortly after the November 3 election results rolled in.

Smith最初支持但后来反对整合美以军事发展的条款。但Schumer和众议院少数党领袖Hakeem Jeffries都在寻求保留各自议院的领导职位,他们尚未公开表态。

He echoed Schumer, who wrote in a July “dear colleague” letter that Republicans were seeking a Pentagon funding bill “that would dump billions more into the defense industry while long overdue investments in American communities wait”. Smith had initially supported, but later opposed, the provision to integrate US-Israeli military development.

批评人士长期警告称,该倡议将为五角大楼建立一条不透明的新渠道,通过联合开发项目向以色列提供美国纳税人资助的支持,同时规避国会监督。这也将使未来的政策转向更加困难,将以色列开发的技术固化进美国军事项目之中。

But Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who are both seeking to retain their leadership positions in their respective chambers, have not publicly stated their positions. Critics have long warned that the initiative would establish an opaque new avenue for the Pentagon to provide US tax-funded support to Israel via joint development ventures, while dodging congressional oversight.

有人将该倡议描述为华盛顿数十年来对以色列军事支持的下一阶段,美国和以色列官员均承认,直接军事援助在政治上变得日益棘手。“我们要明白,第219条的全部要点,是将美以援助关系……进一步置于国会监管视野之外,也就是说要让它在一定程度上免受民主程序约束,”进步派智库国际政策中心执行副主席马修·杜斯表示。“我认为,民主党人及其他反对《国防授权法案》中该条款的人,坚守强硬立场是站得住脚的。”

It would also make future policy pivots more difficult, entrenching Israeli-developed technology into US military programmes. Some have characterised the initiative as the next phase of Washington’s decades-long military support for Israel, with both US and Israeli officials acknowledging direct military aid has become increasingly politically fraught“The whole point of Section 219, let’s understand, is to move the US-Israel aid relationship … further outside the purview of Congress, which is to say to sort of inoculate it from democracy,” said Matthew Duss, the executive vice president at the progressive Center for International Policy think tank. “I think Democrats and others who are opposing this measure in the NDAA are on firm ground to hold a hard line.”

“但我认为这会很难,尤其是在现任领导层依然非常强力支持以色列的情况下,”他对半岛电视台表示。“我认为舒默和杰弗里斯都表现出迹象,表明他们认识到各自的党团在意识形态上与他们在这个问题上的立场处于截然不同的位置。”

“But I think it’ll be tough, especially with this leadership that remains very strongly pro-Israel,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think both Schumer and Jeffries have shown signs they recognise that their respective caucuses are in a very different place ideologically than they are on this issue.”

反对声浪日益高涨 越来越多的参议员公开反对该条款。7月,参议员克里斯·范霍伦联同六位同事共同反对该条款。

Growing opposition A growing number of senators have publicly opposed the measure. In July, Senator Chris Van Hollen joined six colleagues in rejecting the provision.

此后,共有12名参议员签署了(PDF)本周早些时候发布的一封新信函,签署者既包括伯尼·桑德斯等进步派中坚,也包括罗恩·怀登和塔米·达克沃斯等相对中间派的人物。

A total of 12 senators have since signed on (PDF) to a new letter released earlier this week, including progressive stalwarts like Bernie Sanders and more centrist figures like Ron Wyden and Tammy Duckworth.

中东理解研究所政策项目传讯总监哈米德·本达斯表示,这些参议员代表了“民主党党团更广泛的范围”。

Hamid Bendaas, the communications director for the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project, said the senators represent “a broader range of the Democratic Caucus”.

“所以我认为这是一个好迹象,表明相当数量的民主党人已准备好真正反对《国防授权法案》中的那些条款,”他对半岛电视台表示。

“So I think that’s a good sign that a good amount of Democrats are ready to really stand against those provisions in the NDAA,” he told Al Jazeera.

本达斯还指出,民意调查显示,由于加沙的种族灭绝,公众广泛反对美国对以色列的军事支持。特朗普总统和万斯副总统都承认,目前美以关系的状态已变得在政治上极为棘手。

Bendaas also pointed to public opinion polls suggesting widespread opposition to US military support for Israel, fuelled by the genocide in Gaza. Both President Trump and Vice President JD Vance have acknowledged that the current state of the US-Israel relationship has become politically fraught.

“我不想成为那个在我们看到的文本上投赞成票的民主党人或共和党人,”本达斯说。“中期选举后通过的首批主要法案之一,竟然是一项指示五角大楼向以色列——或者说是以色列公司,其中一些是国有公司——拨付纳税人资金的法案……我认为这是他们现在能做的最糟糕的事情。”参议员们在信中写道,该条款将“扩大并加速美以防务关系,包括技术共享、武器系统联合生产,以及在生物技术、量子、自主系统、人工智能、网络战等多个作战领域的双边研发”,其融合程度甚至超过了美国与一些北约盟国的融合程度。

“I wouldn’t want to be a Democrat or a Republican who votes yes on the text that we’ve seen,” Bendaas said. “For one of the first major bills to pass post-midterms to be a bill that directs the Pentagon to send taxpayer funds to Israel, or, I should say, Israeli companies, some of which are government-owned companies … I think that’s about the worst thing that they could possibly do right now.”In their letter, the senators wrote the provision would “expand and accelerate the US-Israel defense relationship, including technology sharing, co-production of weapons systems, and bilateral research and development across multiple domains of warfare such as biotechnology, quantum, autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, cyberwarfare, and others”, surpassing integration even with some US NATO allies.

这反过来可能会“通过让以色列掌握对美国武器系统和军事技术的杠杆作用,威胁美国国家安全利益”,并“通过将以色列技术嵌入美国国防工业基础,造成长期依赖,使未来的政策变更代价高昂或难以实施”。

That could, in turn, “threaten US national security interests by handing Israel leverage over American weapons systems and military technology” and “create long-term dependencies by embedding Israeli technology into the US defense industrial base that could make future policy changes costly or difficult to implement”.

“在这种情况下这样做将是不明智的,”议员们写道。“特别是以色列政府继续在加沙、约旦河西岸和该地区其他地方推行与美国利益和价值观不一致的政策。”

“To do so in this instance would be unwise,” the lawmakers wrote. “Especially as the Government of Israel continues to pursue policies in Gaza, the West Bank and other parts of the region that are inconsistent with US interests and values.”

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