随着美国中期选举后对人工智能前景的疑问推动对冲需求，交易者对股价进行杠杆投注的新方式越来越受欢迎。
A new way for traders to place leveraged bets on stock prices is growing in popularity as questions around the outlook for AI following the US midterm elections spur demand for hedging.
伯纳德·戈耶尔和莉迪亚·比尤德报道，与股价挂钩的永续期货于11月5日在Kalshi开始交易，当天科技股遭遇了自2020年以来最严重的抛售。这些合约提供股价敞口，无需持有股票，且与传统期货不同，没有到期日。
By Bernard Goyder and Lydia Beyoud Perpetual futures tied to stock prices began trading on Kalshi on Nov. 5, the same day technology stocks were rocked by the worst selloff since 2020. The contracts, which offer exposure to the stock price without owning shares, have no expiration date, unlike traditional futures.
Kalshi最初在50只大型股票上提供永续期货，此前该平台已推出与商品和加密代币价格挂钩的类似合约。周四，Kalshi的英伟达公司永续期货交易量在过去24小时内飙升至超过1亿美元，受首席执行官黄仁勋被免职引发的波动推动。美光科技公司交易量于11月9日升至1亿美元以上，而SpaceX单日交易量最高达8800万美元。
Kalshi has begun by offering perps, as they are known, on 50 large stocks, after previously rolling out similar contracts tied to the prices of commodities and crypto tokens. The trading volume on Kalshi’s Nvidia Corp. perps jumped to over $100 million in the past 24 hours on Thursday, boosted by volatility around the ouster of chief executive Jensen Huang. Micron Technology Inc. volumes rose above $100 million on Nov. 9, while SpaceX traded as much as $88 million in a single day.
这些永续期货引起了散户客户和对冲基金的兴趣，成为现有上市合约的替代品。Kalshi对英伟达头寸提供最高4.6倍杠杆，对美光科技和SpaceX提供3.5倍杠杆。它们也引起了传统交易所的不满，后者质疑其合法性以及缺乏消费者保护。
The perps have piqued the interest from both retail customers and hedge funds as an alternative to existing listed contracts. Kalshi offers up to 4.6x leverage on Nvdia positions and 3.5x leverage on Micron and SpaceX. They’ve also drawn the ire of traditional exchanges, who have questioned their legality and the lack of consumer protections.
永续期货多年来一直是离岸加密货币交易所的特色。这使得加密货币中介在提供如今终于在美国本土推出的产品方面占据优势。
Perps have been a feature of offshore crypto exchanges for years. That gives crypto intermediaries a leg up when it comes to offering the products now finally arriving onshore in the US.
据经纪商Ripple Prime总裁诺埃尔·金梅尔表示，四大离岸加密货币交易所的交易量中，超过三分之二来自永续期货。该公司原名Hidden Road，自2020年起一直在清算这些合约。
More than two-thirds of the volume on the four largest offshore crypto exchanges comes from perps, according to Noel Kimmel, president of brokerage Ripple Prime. The company, formerly known as Hidden Road, has been clearing the contracts since 2020.
金梅尔表示，伊朗战争是永续期货在加密货币以外资产上流行的一个转折点，客户渴望在周末交易商品，而传统期货市场那时关门。
The Iran war proved an inflection point for the popularity of perps based on assets beyond crypto, said Kimmel, with clients keen to trade commodities during the weekend, when traditional futures markets were shut.
“你们看到交易量激增，”金梅尔说，指的是客户在股票、原油和黄金上交易永续合约。“在我看来，这不是昙花一现，我认为你会看到不同类型资产管理人持续扩散和采用率提升。”散户关注上周，Kalshi上最大的英伟达公开持仓之一属于一名叫@WillyChampagne的交易员，他自永续合约推出以来，通过交易股票永续合约获得了6万美元的未实现收益。
“You’ve seen an explosion in volume,” said Kimmel, referring to clients trading perps on equities, crude and gold. “This is not a fad in my view, and I think you’re going to see continued proliferation and increase in pickup across different types of asset managers.”Retail Focus One of the largest public Kalshi positions on Nvidia last week was a trader called @WillyChampagne, who has made an unrealized gain of $60,000 trading stock perpetuals since the contracts were launched.
Kalshi交易者可以选择公开个人资料，但大型交易员和做市商可能倾向于匿名。该账户与迈阿密的投资顾问兼浩室音乐DJ威廉·斯迈斯有关，他在Kalshi上以个人账户交易，称这只是“一种爱好”。他在电话采访中表示，Kalshi股票永续合约的流动性优于该交易所的原油合约。Kalshi的客户可以通过滑块选择交易使用的杠杆比例。内置杠杆意味着，100美元现金可让用户获得458.81美元的购买力。
Kalshi traders can choose to keep their profiles public, but larger traders and market makers likely opt for anonymity. The account is linked to William Smythe, an investment adviser and house music DJ based in Miami, who trades in a personal account on Kalshi as “a hobby.”The liquidity on Kalshi’s equity perps is an improvement on the exchange’s oil contracts, he said in a phone interview Kalshi’s clients can choose how much leverage to deploy for their trades by using a slide bar. The built-in leverage means that $100 in cash gives a user $458.81 in buying power.
尽管交易量在扩大，但与流入标的公司股票的资金相比，目前仍然微不足道。11月9日，约780亿美元的英伟达股票易手，上市期权交易量的名义价值约为1250亿美元。
While volumes are expanding, so far they are tiny compared with the money going into shares of the underlying companies. On Nov. 9 around $78 billion of Nvidia shares changed hands, and listed options volumes had a notional value of around $125 billion.
通过让客户以杠杆方式接触证券的当前价格，但又不拥有标的资产的权利或义务，永续期货镜像了华尔街对冲基金中流行的一种场外衍生品——总回报互换的回报特征。这些互换是杠杆交易所交易基金持有的主要资产。在永续合约上周开始在Kalshi交易之前，这些ETF是散户投资者对股价进行投机性押注的最简单方式之一。
By giving clients leveraged exposure to the current price of a security, but with no right or obligation to own the underlying asset, perpetual futures mirror the return profile of a type of over-the-counter derivative popular among Wall Street hedge funds: total return swaps. Those swaps are the main asset held by leveraged exchange-traded funds. Before perps began trading on Kalshi last week, the ETFs were one of the simplest ways for retail investors to amp up speculative bets on share prices.
卡尔希的合同也面临着芝商所（CME Group Inc.）的竞争。芝商所于7月底上市了单股期货，提供超过50只股票（包括英伟达、SpaceX和美光）的六倍以上杠杆。该交易所称，周四其英伟达期货的成交量达到了历史第二高水平。
Kalshi’s contracts also run up against competition from CME Group Inc., which listed single stock futures in late July offering more than six times leverage on more than 50 stocks including Nvidia, SpaceX and Micron. Volume on CME’s Nvidia futures reached the second-highest ever on Thursday, according to the exchange.
诉讼 美国永续期货在证券法中的地位正在芝商所与美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的法庭对决中激烈争论，CFTC是监管美国期货市场的监管机构。芝加哥交易所集团（Cboe Global Markets Inc.）和灯塔证券（Citadel Securities）也在起诉CFTC，认为股票永续期货应在证券交易所交易。
Lawsuits Perpetual futures’ place in US securities law is being bitterly contested in a court showdown between CME Group and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a regulator that oversees the US futures markets. Cboe Global Markets Inc. and Citadel Securities are also suing the CFTC, arguing that equity perps should trade on securities exchanges.
这场诉讼将美国独特复杂的金融监管结构中长期积压的紧张关系推向了高潮。尽管交易公司、产品和技术日益融合，但美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和CFTC历来划定了各自的监管领域。
The litigation is bringing to a head simmering tensions over the US’s uniquely complex financial regulatory structure. The Securities and Exchange Commission and CFTC have historically staked out separate turf even as trading firms, products and technologies have converged.
退休衍生品律师加里·德瓦尔（Gary DeWaal）表示，掉期与期货之间界限的模糊化自20世纪80年代以来就一直存在。
The blurring of lines between swaps and futures has been occurring since the 1980s, said Gary DeWaal, a retired derivatives attorney.
预测市场的交易只会加剧散户交易者对现有掉期的关注，而这些工具之间的差异也变得更加微妙。
Trading on prediction markets has only ratcheted up the existing swaps’ prominence among retail traders, while the differences between the instruments are becoming more nuanced.
德瓦尔表示，随着芝加哥交易所集团等交易所提供10年期“连续期货”，而卡尔希提供股票永续期货，是否应关注形式而非实质，存在疑问。
With exchanges like Cboe offering 10-year-dated “continuous futures” versus Kalshi’s offering of equity perpetuals, there’s a question on whether to focus on form over substance, according to DeWaal.
掉期还是期货 由于永续期货的交易在离岸交易所越来越流行，最初用于交易数字资产，随后扩展到石油市场，现在又涉及股票，CFTC多年来一直在努力如何将永续期货归类为期货而非掉期。期货带来了一系列好处，从较轻的监管报告要求到更有利的税务待遇。
Swap or Future The CFTC has been grappling for several years with how to classify perpetuals as futures, rather than swaps, as their trading grew in popularity on offshore exchanges, first for trading digital assets before extending to oil markets and now equities. Futures bring with them a series of benefits, from lighter regulatory reporting requirements to more favorable tax treatment.
CME的诉讼主张，永续合约属于互换而非期货，因此适用多德-弗兰克法案中更为严苛的监管规定。
CME’s lawsuit argues that perps are swaps rather than futures, and therefore subject to the more onerous regulations included in the Dodd-Frank Act.
“它们不是期货，”CME首席执行官特里·达菲11月4日在芝加哥期货业协会博览会上说，指的是永续合约。“如果算什么的话，它们肯定是互换。”
“They are not a future,” CME CEO Terry Duffy said on Nov. 4 at the Futures Industry Association Expo in Chicago, referring to perps. “They are definitely a swap if anything at all.”
“我真的认为，对散户来说，现在就像2007年，”他说。“我认为有太多人在追逐散户资金，不幸的是，散户最终会受到伤害。”卡拉希首席风险官乌德什·贾10月28日在一次演讲中回应了关于永续合约过度风险的一些担忧。
“I really believe it’s 2007 for retail,” he said. “I think there’s so many people chasing the retail dollars that unfortunately retail is going to get hurt here.”Udesh Jha, chief risk officer of Kalshi, in a presentation on Oct. 28 addressed some of the concerns around excess risk in perpetuals.
“我们受CFTC标准约束，”贾说。“我们必须设定一定的最高杠杆水平。例如，我们在永续合约上的很多杠杆，低于其他受监管交易所提供的杠杆。”传统交易所抱怨称，卡拉希利用本应面向商品生产商和银行的较宽松CFTC监管体系，将产品推向普通散户投资者，从而绕过了SEC对投资者的严格保护。
“We are governed by CFTC standards,” Jha said. “We have to have a certain max level of leverage. A lot of our leverage, for example, in perpetuals are less than what other regulated exchanges offer.”Traditional exchanges have complained that Kalshi is using the lighter touch CFTC regime intended for commodity producers and banks to bring products to ordinary retail investors, shortcutting stringent SEC protections on investors.
“CFTC监管体系在证券产品的投资者保护方面存在诸多漏洞，”Cboe全球衍生品主管罗布·霍金说。“我们现在就像在西部荒野。”
“The CFTC regime has so many gaps for investor protection for securities products,” said Rob Hocking, global head of derivatives at Cboe. “We’re just in the Wild West.”