字号 ·· | 护眼
南华早报

胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击考验了麦加地区安全协议的极限Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia test limits of Mecca regional security pact

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

就在沙特阿拉伯与巴基斯坦、土耳其签署区域共同防御协议仅一个月后,也门胡塞武装对该王国能源基础设施和军事设施的袭击,正在考验该协议的极限。

Just a month after Saudi Arabia signed a regional mutual defence deal with Pakistan and Turkey, attacks by Yemen’s Houthis against the kingdom’s energy infrastructure and military sites are testing the pact’s limits.

据沙特通讯社报道,周五在利雅得召开的麦加共同防御协议紧急会议上,三方军方首脑重申了对集体防御的承诺。

At a hastily convened meeting of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Riyadh on Friday, military chiefs of the three parties reaffirmed their commitment to collective defence, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

该通讯社称,会谈重点在于“情报合作、军事协调和能力整合,以加强威慑和集体防御”。

The agency said the talks focused on “intelligence cooperation, military coordination, and capability integration to strengthen deterrence and collective defence”.

但对于巴基斯坦和安卡拉将向沙特提供何种军事支持,通讯社只字未提。

But there was no word on what military support Pakistan and Ankara would give Saudi Arabia.

中国分析人士表示,此次袭击是对8月签署协议的初步压力测试,但结果不太可能导致土耳其和巴基斯坦直接介入沙特与胡塞武装的冲突。

Chinese analysts said the attacks were an initial stress test for theagreement signed in August, but the outcome was unlikely to be direct Turkish and Pakistani intervention in the Saudi-Houthi conflict.

至于中国,观察人士指出,北京支持地区国家更多地掌握自身安全主导权,并希望避免冲突升级。

As for China, observers noted that Beijing supported countries in the region taking greater ownership of their security and wanted to avoid a wider conflict.

近几周,伊朗支持的胡塞武装分子已从沙特支持的也门政府军手中夺取了也门红海海岸,并实际控制了曼德海峡——这一连接红海与亚丁湾及更广阔印度洋的海上咽喉要道。

In recent weeks, Iran-backed Houthi militants have seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast from Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces and taken effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a maritime chokepoint connecting the sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean.

利雅得以空袭作为回应,而胡塞武装则向沙特领土上的目标发射了无人机和导弹。

Riyadh has responded with air strikes, while the Houthis have launched drones and missiles at targets on Saudi territory.

根据麦加协议,针对三方中任何一方的武装攻击均被视为对所有缔约方的攻击,这很像北约的第五条款。

Under the Mecca pact, an armed attack against any one of the three would be regarded as an attack against all, much like Nato’s Article 5.

但该协议并未具体说明在何种情况下需要军事干预,以及此类援助将采取何种形式。

But the agreement does not specify what circumstances would require military intervention or what form such help would take.

复旦大学中东研究中心副主任张楚楚表示,胡塞武装的袭击是对麦加协议的首次考验。

Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, said the Houthi attacks were the first test of the Mecca pact.

张某表示,巴基斯坦和土耳其不愿直接干预也门局势或被卷入冲突,这可能会削弱该协议的“实际威慑效果”。

Pakistan and Turkey did not want to directly intervene in Yemen or be drawn into the conflict, Zhang said, which could undermine the pact’s “actual deterrent effect”.

她说:“如果在沙特面临首次重大威胁时,其他国家未能挺身而出,利雅得未来可能会以牙还牙”,这可能会使该协议下的军事合作变得“非常松散”。

“If others fail to step up during Saudi Arabia’s first major threat, Riyadh may respond in kind in the future,” she said, which would potentially make their military cooperation under the deal “very loose”.

张某补充道,周五的会议主要旨在“将协议转化为一个更具体的框架”以及“防止其沦为一个松散结构的倡议”。

The meeting on Friday was aimed mainly at “turning the pact into a more concrete framework” and “preventing it from becoming a loosely structured initiative”, Zhang added.

她说:“各国可能会讨论建立联合秘书处、工作组或委员会等机构,以落实协议。”

“The countries are likely to discuss establishing institutions such as a joint secretariat and working groups or committees to implement the agreement,” she said.

它们还可能深化情报共享和军事技术合作,以及在防空和海上安全方面的合作。

They could also deepen intelligence sharing and military-technical cooperation, as well as cooperation on air defence and maritime security.

张某表示:“这种合作并不意味着土耳其和巴基斯坦会直接干预沙特与胡塞武装的冲突。”

“Such cooperation would not mean Turkey and Pakistan would directly intervene in the Saudi-Houthi conflict,” Zhang said.

上海国际问题研究院研究员李伟建表示,该协议的“象征意义大于实际意义”,部分原因在于其条款未明确界定何为“武装袭击”。

Li Weijian, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the agreement’s “symbolic significance is greater than its practical significance”, partly because its provisions were not clear on what constituted an “armed attack”.

李伟建说,土耳其和巴基斯坦不太可能派兵,但可提供政治支持、情报或防御援助,同时推动沙特与胡塞武装进行谈判。

Turkey and Pakistan were unlikely to send troops, Li said, but could provide political support, intelligence or defensive help while pushing for negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

李伟建表示,对北京而言,麦加协议反映了地区国家承担更大自身安全责任的更广泛推动。李伟建说,北京视麦加协议为“代表着正确的方向”。

For Beijing, the Mecca pact reflected a broader push for regional countries to take greater responsibility for their own security, Li said. Li said Beijing viewed the Mecca agreement as “representing the right direction”.

他说:“过去,外部势力在中东扮演的角色——往往以提供安全和保护为幌子——实际上并未发挥积极作用。”他补充称,中国支持该协议的开放性质以及其他地区国家加入的可能性。

“In the past, the role played by external forces in the Middle East – often under the guise of providing security and protection – has actually not been a positive one,” he said, adding that China supported the pact’s open-ended nature and the possibility of other regional states joining.

中国不希望沙特与胡塞武装的冲突进一步升级并牵涉更多国家,他说。

China did not want the Saudi-Houthi conflict to expand further and draw in more countries, he said.

本月初在北京会晤时,中国外交部长王毅告诉卡塔尔首相穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼,中国支持地区国家“将自己的未来和命运牢牢掌握在自己手中”。他还呼吁建立“公正合理的新地区安全架构”。

When they met in Beijing earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani that China supported countries in the region “holding their own future and destiny firmly in their hands”. He also called for “just and equitable new regional security architecture”.

路透社援引伊朗消息人士报道称,上周,在沙特向北京求助后,中国曾私下要求伊朗帮助约束胡塞武装。

Reuters, citing Iranian sources, reported last week that China had privately asked Iran to help restrain the Houthis after Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing.

李某表示,霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡的动荡不仅会损害中国的能源和航运利益,也会冲击全球经济。

Disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would hurt not only China’s energy and shipping interests but the global economy, Li said.

“中国作为世界大国,必将在这一问题上发挥建设性作用,”他说。

“China, as a major global power, will certainly play a constructive role in this issue,” he said.

王毅上周在北京还会见了伊朗外长阿拉格齐,呼吁通过政治途径解决伊朗与美国的冲突。

Wang also met his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in Beijing last week, and called for a political settlement to the country’s conflict with the United States.

中国外交部引述王毅的话说,地区紧张局势绝不能进一步外溢至也门。

Regional tensions must not further spill over into Yemen, the Chinese foreign ministry quoted Wang as saying.

华盛顿似乎也不愿在其对伊朗的博弈中开辟新战场,尽管沙特是美国的亲密盟友。

Washington also appears reluctant to open another front in its war on Iran, even though Saudi Arabia is a close US ally.

《纽约时报》报道称,在利雅得呼吁美方干预后,特朗普总统最初授权准备打击胡塞武装,但上周末改变了主意。

The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump had initially authorised preparations for strikes against the Houthis after Riyadh appealed for US intervention, but reversed course last weekend.

张某表示,华盛顿热衷于“避免直接卷入”,且不愿在11月美国中期选举前重演去年对胡塞武装的打击行动。

Zhang said Washington was keen to “avoid direct involvement” and reluctant to repeat last year’s strikes against the Houthis ahead of the US’ midterm elections in November.