安迪·伯纳姆周六乘坐新款“皇家水仙号”默西河渡轮，当时工党正在利物浦举行年度大会。
Andy Burnham travels on the new Royal Daffodil Mersey ferry on Saturday as the Labour party gathers in Liverpool for its annual conference.
式将在可预见的未来持续下去——在伯纳姆意识到合作是关键之前，改革党将从中获益 我上周写道，无论当前面临何种麻烦，改革党（Reform UK）远未消失。与此同时，那些身穿黑衣的准准军事化人员很可能是令人恐惧的眼前未来的又一个预兆。英格兰又一个定居点——诺福克郡的巴纳姆镇——似乎准备举行一场假独立公投，以抗议当地安置寻求庇护者的计划。哦，我们的新任工党首相刚刚与一位美国总统进行了友好会谈，后者不仅将现代事实上的法西斯主义带到了祖国，还想将其输出到欧洲。 但请暂时搁置那些令人愉快的念头，让我们看看工党在利物浦集会的情况。其大会到处张贴的口号是“重燃希望”——这不像去年可怕的“重振英国”，表明高层少数人或许已迟迟领悟了简练政治叙事的基本功。
Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images John Harris Our fragmented political model will endure for the foreseeable future – and Reform will benefit from it until Burnham learns that cooperation is key I wrote last week whatever its current troubles, Reform UK has hardly disappeared. Meanwhile, those black-clad quasi-paramilitaries may well be another augury of a frightening immediate future. One more English settlement – the town of Barnham, in Norfolk – is seemingly poised to stage a pretend independence referendum in protest at plans to locally accommodate asylum seekers. Oh, and our new Labour prime minister has just held cordial talks with a US president who has not only brought a modern de facto fascism to his homeland, but wants to export it to Europe But hold all those cheerful thoughts for a moment, and let us have a look at the Labour party as it gathers in Liverpool. The slogan plastered all over its conference is “Hope Again” – which, unlike last year’s dreadful “Renew Britain”, suggests that a few people at the top might have belatedly learned the basics of pithy political storytelling.
两个被公认为现代经典的口号——“夺回控制权”和“让美国再次伟大”——的影响显而易见。就工党而言，“再次”不仅暗示斯塔默的执政有多糟糕，还回望了一个更美好的过去，并暗示类似的成就完全可能实现。你可以将其视为对新工党时期最佳面貌、哈罗德·威尔逊得意之时或艾德礼时代神奇辉煌的回溯。
The influence of the two slogans that are accepted modern classics – “Take back control” and “Make America Great Again” – is obvious. In Labour’s case, “again” not only implies how badly Starmer’s reign went, but looks back to a better past and implies that something comparable is eminently possible. You might take it as a reference to the best aspects of the New Labour period, Harold Wilson in his pomp or the magical glories of the Attlee years.
这一口号也呼应了安迪·伯纳姆在成为领袖时发表的某些言论，关于梅克菲尔德选民对“他们曾熟知的工党承诺回归”做出的积极反应。不得不说：这些话语和大会标语触动了该党根深蒂固的怀旧情结，以及一种观念——即只要付出足够努力，工党或许能重回赢得压倒性选票份额的时代，那时足球运动员还连抽烟、圆顶礼帽仍是寻常景象（1951年虽败给保守党，工党却赢得创纪录的48.8%选票，威尔逊在1966年也曾逼近这一数字）。抛开数字不谈，工党仍在很大程度上认为，按理说它理应垄断进步阵营的半壁江山。保守党对右翼阵营也持有同类想法，这最近助长了一个诱人念头，为两大“主流”政党及众多评论家所共享：随着扎克·波兰斯基的公关失误、奈杰尔·法拉奇陷入麻烦，我们或许正在见证舒适、惬意、简单的两党政治的重生。
The slogan also echoes some of the pronouncements made by Andy Burnham when he became leader, about the positive response of the voters of Makerfield to “the promised return of the Labour they once knew”. And it has to be said: those words and the conference tagline tap into his party’s ingrained nostalgia, and the idea that with enough effort, Labour might return to winning a commanding share of the vote, as it did back in the days when footballers chain-smoked and bowler hats were still a common sight ( in 1951 although it lost to the Tories, Labour won a record 48.8%, and Wilson came very close to the same figure in 1966 Numbers aside, Labour still largely believes that by rights it should monopolise the progressive half of politics. The Tories have the same idea about the right of the spectrum, which has recently fed into a seductive notion held by both “main” parties and many pundits that with Zack Polanski’s PR slip-ups and the trouble that has engulfed Nigel Farage, we may be witnessing the rebirth of comfy, cosy, simple two-party politics.
这简直是一派胡言。英国向多党制的演进，深深植根于一个其复杂性早已无法被我们荒谬的投票制度所掩盖的社会与经济之中。看看选举机制不同的地方发生了什么。工党最近失去了对威尔士的控制权，威尔士党（Plaid Cymru）上台，而工党仅获得了微薄的11%选票。苏格兰民族党（SNP）在苏格兰的统治地位虽有削弱，但基本盘依然稳固。与此同时，即便领先者胜出制（first past the post）仍勉强维持运转，曾被视为“中部英格兰”核心地带的大片地区——尤其是伦敦周边郡县——已从保守党转向自由民主党。撰写本文时，最新的YouGov民调显示工党支持率为23%（若属实，所谓的“伯纳姆反弹”更像是一次微不足道的小跳），保守党与改革党（Reform）并列21%，绿党和自民党分别为14%和12%。同一民调机构还进行了多层回归与后分层（MRP）建模，描绘了若今日举行大选，下院的席位分布图景。预测结果为悬浮议会，工党席位跌至241席，面临跨党合作的必然性。这显然进一步证明了一种碎片化的政治模式将在可预见的未来长期存在。而在利物浦，这主要只会在边会上被谈论，且远远谈得不够。
What utter rot that is. The UK’s passage into a multiparty system is deeply rooted in a society and economy whose complexity can no longer be smothered by our ludicrous voting system. Look at what has happened where the electoral machinery is different. Labour recently lost control of Wales to Plaid Cymru, attracting a mere 11% of the vote. The SNP’s dominance in Scotland may have weakened, but it is more than intact. Meanwhile, even with first past the post still creakingly in place, whole swathes of what used to be considered middle England – particularly in the home counties – have switched from the Tories to the Lib Dems At the time of writing, the latest YouGov poll puts Labour on 23% (if that’s accurate, the “Burnham bounce” looks more like a modest bunny-hop), the Tories level with Reform at 21%, and the Greens and Lib Dems on 14% and 12% respectively. The same polling group has also done a multi-level regression and post-stratification – or– that offers a picture of the House of Commons that would be elected if a contest were held today. It forecasts a hung parliament, with Labour dropping to 241 seats, and facing the inevitability of cross-party cooperation. Here, clearly, is further evidence of a fragmented model of politics that will endure for the foreseeable future. And in Liverpool, mostly at fringe meetings, it will be talked about, but not nearly enough.
在成为领袖之前，伯纳姆似乎是唯一一位积极回应这些变化的资深工党政治家。他多次支持比例代表制（他坚称至今仍支持），并表示接受这一制度将“为与其他政党在更广泛改革上达成协议铺平道路”。他说，随之而来的将是“一种更诚实、更合作的政治方式”，这与他承诺大幅减少“指责推诿”和“争夺政治分数”的说法一脉相承。除了与保守党和自民党就社会护理进行的会谈外，这种做法的具体面貌尚不清晰；我们所知道的只是，伯纳姆推动英格兰权力下放必定意味着向其他政党让渡权力，并极可能在国家层面大幅改变政治格局。
Before he became leader, Burnham seemed to be the only senior Labour politician positively responding to these shifts. He has repeatedly backed proportional representation (which he insists he still supports), and said that embracing it would pave the way “for agreement with other parties on wider reforms”. With that, he said, would come “a more honest and collaborative way of doing politics”, a phrase that chimes with his promises of a lot less “finger-pointing” and “point-scoring”. Aside from his talks with the Tories and Lib Dems about social care, what this might look like is unclear; all we know is that Burnham’s drive for English devolution will definitely mean ceding power to other parties, and probably substantially change politics at a national level.
接下来是真正关键的部分。工党大会开幕十一天后，霍尔本和圣潘克拉斯选区将举行补选。至少公开场合上，工党似乎在进行一场内容单薄的竞选，尽管它抨击绿党所谓的“财政不可行性”，并向党员发出通讯，将此次竞争定性为为五月地方选举中绿党获胜“报仇雪恨”的机会。绿党领袖兼候选人波兰斯基激烈指责工党在巴勒斯坦问题上可悲地缺乏团结，而其盟友也指控伯纳姆领导的工党选择竞选人——前儿童难民萨加尔·阿卜迪-瓦利——是基于投机取巧的“身份政治”。一切看起来都像是寻常政治操弄——而随着极右翼在国内外获得越来越多支持，伦敦这个角落正在发生的事情，应让我们对下一次英国大选感到深深的不安。
And so to the really important bit. Eleven days after the start of Labour conference comes the Holborn and St Pancras byelection. Publicly at least, Labour seems to be running a content-lite campaign, though it has attacked the Greens’ alleged fiscal impossibilism and sent members a communique framing the contest as a chance to “get our revenge” for Green triumphs in May’s local elections. The Green leader and candidate, Polanski, is aggressively accusing Labour of a miserable lack of solidarity with Palestine, while an ally also charged Burnham’s party with choosing its contender – the former child refugee Sagal Abdi-Wali – on the basis of opportunistic “identity politics”. It all looks like politics as usual – and as the far right gains more and more traction here and abroad, what is happening in this corner of London should make us feel very nervous about the next UK general election.
倾向左翼的跨党派压力团体“指南针”即将召开“进步多数委员会”的首次会议，届时将汇聚英国各进步政党的领军人物——包括威尔士党和苏格兰民族党——共同商讨如何联手击败改革党。引用“指南针”近期的一份声明：“这个国家存在着进步多数……然而我们过时的政治体制却让我们分裂……分散选票，为极端声音铺平道路，使其在缺乏公众支持的情况下获胜。”这种紧迫的警告将在下届大选前夕变得愈发清晰，届时竞选活动将充斥着谎言、深度伪造和更糟糕的手段——无论伯纳姆新成立的“国家信息防御中心”如何努力。
The left-leaning cross-party pressure group Compass is about to convene the first meeting of a “council for the progressive majority”, which will bring together leading figures from each of the UK’s progressive parties – including Plaid and the SNP – to firm up how they might collectively defeat Reform. To quote from a recent Compass statement“There is a progressive majority in this country … yet our outdated political system divides us … splitting the vote and clearing a path for extremist voices to win with little public backing.” This is the kind of urgent warning that will become very vivid in the buildup to the next election, amid campaigning – whatever the efforts of Burnham’s new National Centre For Information Defence– festooned with lies, deepfakes and worse.
跳过通讯推广 跳过通讯推广 我们许多人仍不确定，面对自信、精通科技且可能团结一致的右翼，分裂的左翼究竟有何对策。选举联盟往往显得像是暗箱操作；各党同意在特定边缘选区限制竞选活动，效果可能好得多。无论如何，我们数百万人——包括新任首相在内——越来越感到文化变革迫在眉睫，尤其是为了阻止最基本的文明价值观在我们眼前崩塌。
skip past newsletter promotion after newsletter promotion A lot of us remain unsure of the exact solutions to a split left taking on a confident, tech-savvy and possibly united right. Electoral pacts tend to look like stitch-ups; parties agreeing to limit their campaigning in certain marginal seats can work much better. Whatever, millions of us – including, it seems, the new PM – increasingly feel that a cultural change is overdue, not least to stop the most basic civilisational values buckling before our eyes.
说到这儿，讽刺的是，二十一世纪支离破碎的政治格局中，获益最多的依然是法拉奇——这位自诩为复古派的人物，永远笼罩在罗思曼香烟的烟雾之中。那么，聚集在利物浦旧码头边的各位，问题来了：如何才能彻底击败他？尤其是当他可能通过与保守党、甚至鲁珀特·洛的“复兴英国党”达成协议（选前或选后），来弥合右翼内部的分裂时。难道靠荒谬地坚持无论选民身处何种政治境况都必须投工党一票？还是通过与其他政党某种形式的合作来确保他的落选？那些政党当然也需要改变。但工党一党独大、垄断霸权的时代已经结束了。放手吧。我们需要共同应对当下最关键的战斗，让希望的前景真正变得触手可及。再一次。约翰·哈里斯是《卫报》专栏作家
Talking of which, it’s grimly ironic that the man still benefiting most from the fractured politics of the 21st century is Farage, a self-styled throwback permanently surrounded by a cloud of Rothmans smoke. Here, then, is a question for everyone gathered by the old Liverpudlian docks: how can he be comprehensively beaten, possibly when he may end up healing divisions on the right by striking a deal (pre- or post-election) with the Tories, and even Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain? By ludicrously insisting that people must vote Labour whatever their political circumstances? Or somehow cooperating with other parties to ensure his defeat? Those parties also need to change, of course. But the age of monopolistic Labour hegemony is over. Let it go. We need to fight today’s most important battles together, so the prospect of hope might actually start to feel real. Again. John Harris is a Guardian columnist