特朗普第二任期初期，其经济顾问提出了一个简单的理论：向债券市场展示华盛顿认真对待缩减巨额赤字，长期利率便会自行下降。特朗普可以不干预美联储。事与愿违。
In the early days of President Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits, and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Federal Reserve alone.
通胀上升，美联储加息，10年期美债收益率远高于就职日水平，当时新团队将高利率归咎于拜登时代的失控支出。上周，该收益率升至2007年以来最高水平，因投资者权衡经济韧性、长期能源中断加剧价格压力的威胁，以及央行等待通胀消退耐心耗尽。
It hasn’t worked out that way. Inflation is rising, the Fed is raising rates and the 10-year Treasury yield is well above where it stood on Inauguration Day, when the new team blamed high rates on runaway Biden-era spending. Last week, that yield reached the highest level since 2007 as investors weighed a resilient economy, prolonged energy disruptions that threaten to aggravate price pressures and a central bank losing patience waiting for them to fade.
白宫理论建立在从未到来的财政紧缩之上，且忽视了特朗普自身议程在多大程度上助推了当前推高利率的价格压力。关税推高进口商品成本。与伊朗的冲突推高油价和柴油价格。移民限制缩减了劳动力。
The White House theory rested on fiscal restraint that never arrived and overlooked how much of Trump’s own agenda would feed the price pressures now pushing rates higher. Tariffs raised the cost of imported goods. The war with Iran sent oil and diesel prices soaring. Immigration restrictions shrank the labor force.