在周五的联合国大会上,伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪发表讲话,谈及在美国与伊朗持续交战期间伊拉克所面临的挑战。
In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Friday, Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi spoke about the challenges his country has faced amid the ongoing war between the United States and Iran.
霍尔木兹海峡的关闭切断了伊拉克的海上贸易,包括石油出口——这是该国的生命线。
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off Iraq’s sea-based trade, including oil exports – a lifeline for the country.
自战争爆发以来,伊拉克一直无法通过海湾出口约90%的石油,已损失600亿美元的石油收入。
Iraq has been unable to export about 90 percent of its oil via the Gulf and has lost $60bn in oil revenues since the war began.
“我们正关切地注视着霍尔木兹海峡航运和海上自由所受到的冲击,这引发了全球油价上涨的危机,”扎伊迪对大会表示。
“We are watching with concern the fallout over shipping and maritime freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, which has triggered a crisis of rising global oil price,” al-Zaidi told the assembly.
显而易见,石油收入损失引发的财政危机给伊拉克政府带来了堆积如山的挑战。
It is evident that the financial crisis caused by lost oil receipts has presented the Iraqi government with a mountain of challenges.
石油收入约占伊拉克联邦预算的90%,出口下降已影响政府支付薪资的能力,并在巴格达引发了抗议活动。
Oil revenues make up about 90 percent of Iraq’s federal budget and the decline in exports has impacted the government’s ability to pay salaries and prompted protests in Baghdad.
伊拉克总理阿里·扎伊迪周五在第八十一届联合国大会上发表讲话 [联合国大会] 伊拉克政府正在考虑一系列紧缩措施以应对赤字,但这些措施不受民众欢迎。
Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi addresses the 81st United Nations General Assembly on Friday [UNGA] The Iraqi government is looking at a range of austerity measures to deal with the deficit, but they are unpopular with the population.
扎伊迪提出,未来几年提高石油产量并实现出口路线多元化,可能增加政府收入。这可以通过开发现有的出口渠道来实现,例如伊拉克-土耳其管道(ITP),或与约旦和叙利亚建立新的出口通道。
Al-Zaidi suggested that boosting oil production in the coming years and diversifying export routes could increase government revenues. That could be achieved by developing existing export channels, such as the Iraq–Turkiye Pipeline (ITP), or establishing new ones with Jordan and Syria.
但这些提议都无法为伊拉克的经济困境提供快速解决方案,因为霍尔木兹海峡——长期以来是伊拉克石油通往世界其他地区的主要门户——在可预见的未来仍将实际上处于关闭状态。
But none of the proposals provide a quick solution to Iraq’s economic woes, with the Strait of Hormuz – for long the main gateway for Iraqi oil to the rest of the world – remaining effectively closed for the foreseeable future.
伊拉克政治与安全分析师萨尔马德·贝亚提告诉半岛电视台,伊拉克石油出口难题缺乏快速解决方案,是该国面临的重大问题。
Iraqi political and security analyst Sarmad Al-Bayati told Al Jazeera that the lack of quick solutions for Iraq’s oil export conundrum is a major problem for the country.
“目前,唯一的选择是通过霍尔木兹海峡出口,而这主要取决于海峡的局势,”阿尔-巴亚提对半岛电视台表示。
“At present, the only option is to export through the Strait of Hormuz, which depends primarily on the situation in the strait,” Al-Bayati told Al Jazeera.
“其他替代方案,例如通过叙利亚或土耳其的石油出口路线,甚至未来通过约旦延伸管道的计划,目前都不现实也不可行,如果海峡局势维持现状,这些方案无法解决伊拉克的危机。”霍尔木兹海峡伊拉克一直依赖效率低下的船对船转运,通过巴士拉和其他海湾港口输出部分石油,小型船只在美国军事保护下穿越霍尔木兹海峡运送货物。
“Other alternatives, such as oil exporting routes through Syria or Turkiye, or even future plans to extend a pipeline through Jordan, are unrealistic and impractical at the moment, offering no real solutions to Iraq’s current crisis if the situation remains as it is in the strait.” Strait of Hormuz Iraq has relied on inefficient ship-to-ship transfers to get some oil out via Basra and other Gulf ports, with small boats carrying cargo through the Strait of Hormuz under US military protection.
伊拉克石油营销组织(SOMO)负责人阿里·纳扎尔在伊拉克议会最近的一次会议上表示,伊拉克9月份的石油出口能力为420万桶,但实际平均出口量远低于此,仅为250万桶。在霍尔木兹海峡危机之前,伊拉克每天出口350万桶。
Ali Nazar, the head of Iraqi Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO), told a recent session in the Iraqi parliament that Iraq’s oil export capacity was 4.2 million barrels in September, but actual average exports were much lower at 2.5 million barrels. Before the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq was exporting 3.5 million barrels per day.
他补充说,SOMO正在为中质油提供每桶26.5美元的折扣,为重质油提供约28美元的折扣。尽管如此,由于过境海峡的船只持续遭到袭击,该公司仍难以找到买家。
SOMO is offering discounts of $26.5 for each barrel for medium oil and about $28 for heavy oil, he added. Despite that, the company is struggling to find buyers due to continued attacks on vessels transiting the strait.
“这不是一项容易的任务。极其困难。需要与航运公司进行高层协调,”纳扎尔说。“竞争非常激烈。科威特和卡塔尔提供了更大的折扣,高达每桶35美元。”伊拉克石油部发言人萨利姆·阿尔-里卡比表示,8月份伊拉克出口了7000万桶石油,收入约为45亿美元。
“It isn’t an easy task. It is extremely difficult. It requires high-level coordination with shipping companies,” Nazar said. “The competition is very intense. Kuwait and Qatar have offered larger discounts, reaching up to $35 per barrel.” Iraqi oil ministry spokesman Salim al-Rikabi said that 70 million barrels of oil were exported from Iraq in August, with revenues of around $4.5bn.
一位石油部消息人士告诉半岛电视台,这只是从伊拉克南部油田经霍尔木兹海峡出口的石油。
An oil ministry source told Al Jazeera that this was only oil exported from Iraq’s southern oil fields that went through Hormuz.
伊拉克继续通过伊拉克-土耳其管道(ITP)经土耳其出口原油。巴士拉石油公司经理巴西姆·阿卜杜勒·卡里姆近日表示,每天有25万桶石油通过公路从伊拉克南部油田运往伊拉克北部基尔库克的储存设施。
Iraq continues to export crude through Turkiye using the Iraq–Turkiye Pipeline (ITP). Basra Oil Company manager Bassem Abdul Karim recently said that 250,000 barrels of oil were being transported daily by road from Iraq’s southern oil fields to a storage facility in Kirkuk in northern Iraq.
由于海上航线仍基本受阻,目前有计划将运输量提升至每天75万桶。
With sea routes still largely blocked, there are plans to raise volumes to 750,000 barrels.
上个月,伊拉克与土耳其签署了一项可续签一年的协议,计划通过ITP每天向土耳其地中海港口杰伊汉出口至少75万桶石油,这标志着伊拉克在出口路线多元化方面迈出了重要一步。
Last month, Iraq and Turkiye signed a one-year extendable agreement to export at least 750,000 barrels per day through the ITP to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, marking a significant step in diversifying Iraq’s export routes.
但行业专家表示,霍尔木兹海峡仍是伊拉克摆脱财政负担的唯一可行长期方案。
But industry experts say the Strait of Hormuz remains the only viable long-term solution for Iraq to overcome its financial burden.
“说实话,在霍尔木兹危机开始之前,伊拉克在寻找出口替代方案方面已经远远落后,而且未能考虑到有朝一日可能失去通过霍尔木兹海峡出口能力的可能性,”前欧佩克发言人、石油和天然气事务专家哈桑·哈菲兹对半岛电视台表示。
“Honestly, Iraq has lagged far behind in finding export alternatives before the crisis in Hormuz began and failed to account for the possibility that it might one day lose its ability to export through the Strait of Hormuz,” Hassan Hafidh, a former OPEC spokesman and specialist in oil and gas affairs, told Al Jazeera.
“伊拉克人正在讨论的所有其他替代方案都无法解决其出口危机,目前霍尔木兹海峡仍是伊拉克运送足以保障其所需收入的石油量的唯一途径。”伊拉克石油部长巴西姆·穆罕默德·胡达伊尔上周对议会表示,霍尔木兹海峡的局势仍然高度不稳定和紧张。
“All the other alternatives the Iraqis are discussing will not solve their export crisis and the Strait of Hormuz remains at the current time the only way for Iraq to ship the quantities that secure the revenue that Iraq needs.” Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair told parliament last week that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable and tense.
由于伊朗和美国在达成结束战争、重新开放海峡的协议方面仍无进展,伊拉克随时可能面临其有限原油出口能力遭受突然打击的局面。
Iraq could face a sudden blow to its ability to export limited amounts of crude at any time with Iran and the US no closer to reaching a deal to end the war and reopen the strait.
“即使我们现在每天能出口300万桶,由于霍尔木兹海峡不可预测的未来,我们也无法保证能维持这一水平,”胡达伊尔说。
“Even if we can export three million barrels a day right now, there are no guarantees we can sustain this level due to the unpredictable future of the Strait of Hormuz,” Khudhair said.
“如果战争持续下去,出口将会下降。整个进出口业务都取决于一个关键因素——海峡的安全。”
“If the war drags on, exports will drop. The entire import and export operations hinge on one vital factor, safety in the strait.”