也门胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击,正在对土耳其与沙特阿拉伯新签署的防务协议进行首次重大考验——这迫使安卡拉在支持盟友与避免卷入冲突的风险之间做出抉择。
Attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia are putting Turkey's new defence pact with the kingdom to its first major test – forcing Ankara to weigh support for its ally against the risk of being drawn deeper into the conflict.
土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦于8月7日签署了《麦加联合防务协议》,承诺“对其中任何一国的攻击都等同于对所有国家的攻击”。
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 7 August, committing themselves to the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.
这三国的军事领导人于周五在沙特首都会面;就在此前一天,得到伊朗支持的胡塞武装发动了新一轮导弹袭击,目标包括利雅得以及位于延布的沙特阿美石油设施。
The three countries' military chiefs met in the Saudi capital on Friday, a day after the Iran-backed Houthis launched their latest barrage of missiles targeting Riyadh and Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu.
沙特方面表示,近几周来他们多次拦截了来自邻国也门的无人机和弹道导弹袭击。
In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has reported intercepting numerous Houthi drone and ballistic missile attacks from neighbouring Yemen.
根据沙特和巴基斯坦的声明,三国领导人讨论了情报共享、军事协调以及如何整合各自军事力量。土耳其国防部并未对此次会议发表评论。
The military chiefs discussed intelligence sharing, military coordination and integrating their capabilities, Saudi and Pakistani statements said. Turkey's defence ministry did not comment on the meeting.
埃尔多安暗示土耳其可能与俄罗斯建立更紧密的核能合作关系,这令沙特等盟国感到不安。不过到目前为止,土耳其尚未明确表示会采取任何军事行动。
Erdogan hints at larger nuclear partnership with Russia, unsettling Turkey's allies Saudi expectations Turkey has so far stopped short of committing itself to military action.
土耳其外交部长哈坎·菲丹本月表示,土耳其正在考虑提供所谓的“技术支持”,但并未详细说明具体内容。
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this month that Ankara was looking into providing what he called “technical support”, without elaborating on what that could involve.
总部位于华盛顿的N7基金会的阿梅德·库扎伊认为,鉴于土耳其军队的专业能力和国防工业的实力,沙特阿拉伯可能会向土耳其寻求防空系统、反无人机技术、雷达以及海上安全保障。
Saudi Arabia could look to Turkey for air defence systems, counter-drone technology, radars and maritime security, given the expertise and capabilities of the Turkish military and defence industry, said Amed Khuzaie of the Washington-based think tank N7 Foundation.
库扎伊对RFI电视台表示:“只有当《麦加联合防务协议》真正得到有效执行时,其重要性和生命力才能得到证明。”
“The Mecca Agreement pact will prove its vitality and importance only if it's deemed to be functional,” Khuzaie told RFI.
此次利雅得会议是在周四于纽约举行的会谈之后举行的;会谈期间,沙特和土耳其的外交部长以及巴基斯坦的副总理兼外交部长在联合国大会期间进行了磋商。
The Riyadh meeting followed talks in New York on Thursday involving the Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers and Pakistan's deputy prime minister and foreign minister on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
土耳其媒体援引外交部消息称,此次会议主要讨论了正在进行的“技术性谈判”。
Turkish media citing foreign ministry sources said the meeting focused on ongoing “technical negotiations”.
然而,如果土耳其向沙特阿拉伯提供支持,可能会招致胡塞武装的报复。
But providing support to Saudi Arabia could expose Turkey to retaliation from the Houthis.
“以真主之名发誓,如果土耳其和巴基斯坦卷入其中,我们将用铁拳予以打击,”胡塞武装的高级成员穆罕默德·阿尔-布凯希在伊拉克电视台的采访中表示。
“By God, if Turkey and Pakistan become involved, we will strike them with an iron fist,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of the Houthis, said in an Iraqi television interview.
随着袭击事件的不断发生,土耳其迫切希望达成黑海航运协议,以避免影响其粮食贸易。国际危机组织(International Crisis Group)的也门问题专家阿梅德·纳吉指出:“鉴于胡塞武装在连接红海和亚丁湾的关键通道——曼德布海峡(Bab al-Mandeb Strait)附近的军事存在,这一警告必须被认真对待。”
Turkey seeks Black Sea shipping deal as attacks threaten grain trade Risk of retaliation The warning should be taken seriously given the Houthis' military presence around the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical waterway linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, explained Amed Nagi, a Yemen expert at the International Crisis Group. “[The Houthis] targeted US and UK shipping in the Red Sea,” Nagi said.
纳吉补充说:“胡塞武装曾袭击过红海上的美国和英国船只;他们完全有可能在亚丁湾采取同样的行动,因为土耳其在该地区非常活跃。”
“They could do the same beyond [that] to the Gulf of Aden, because we know Turkey is very active in the Horn of Africa. "So I think these are the areas that the Houthis will think about if there is any sort of retaliation against Turkey.”
库扎伊(Khuzaie)认为,如果沙特阿拉伯的新合作伙伴无法提供所需的支持,沙特也可能向以色列寻求帮助。他问道:“如今,谁在该地区的情报收集能力比以色列更强呢?通过多元化资源来源,一旦某个合作伙伴失灵,还可以有其他国家提供援助。”
In 2024, the Houthis attacked US military and commercial shipping in the Red Sea, damaging the Gibraltar Eagle bulk carrier with a cruise missile and sinking the British-linked cargo ship MV Rubymar. Saudi Arabia could also look to Israel for support if its new partners do not provide what it needs, Khuzaie said. “Who has better intelligence in the region than the Israelis today?” he said.
对土耳其来说,面临的威胁不仅限于胡塞武装的报复;它还必须处理好与伊朗的关系——因为伊朗一直在支持胡塞武装。伊斯坦布尔马尔马拉大学(Marmara University)的国际关系教授比尔杰汉·阿拉戈兹(Bilgehan Alagoz)表示:“土耳其无意与该地区的任何一方发生直接冲突,而胡塞武装已经成为伊朗的代理人;土耳其当然也不希望与伊朗发生直接对抗。”
“Diversifying resources, if one fails you, you have another side that could assist.”The risks for Ankara go beyond possible Houthi retaliation. Turkey must also manage its relationship with Iran, which backs the Yemeni group. “It is not in the interest of Turkey to have a direct confrontation with any actor in the region, and the Houthis have become a proxy of Iran; Turkey doesn't want a confrontation with Iran directly," said Bilgehan Alagoz, an international relations professor at Istanbul's Marmara University.
“土耳其正试图从外交角度解决这一问题。”上周,土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、巴基斯坦和埃及在一份联合声明中表示,对话与外交是解决该地区冲突的唯一可持续途径,同时重申沙特阿拉伯有权依据国际法维护自身。周五,菲丹在纽约会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐。
"Turkey is trying to solve the issue from a diplomatic point of view.”In a joint statement last week, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt said that dialogue and diplomacy were the only sustainable way to resolve the region's conflicts, while affirming Saudi Arabia's right to defend itself under international law. Fidan met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in New York on Friday.
菲丹随后表示,双方讨论了伊朗与美国之间的谈判,以及恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航的条件,但外交努力尚未取得突破。
Fidan later said they discussed Iran's negotiations with the United States and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but that diplomatic efforts had yet to produce a breakthrough.
叙利亚民主军的解散对叙利亚库尔德人和邻国土耳其意味着什么 伊朗平衡术 这些外交努力是在土耳其与伊朗的关系面临其他紧张局面之际展开的。
What the SDF’s dissolution means for Syria’s Kurds and neighbouring Turkey Iran balancing act The diplomatic efforts come as Turkey's relationship with Iran faces other strains. Turkey-based international relations analyst Soli Ozel said Ankara has for decades walked a “fine line” between rivalry and cooperation with Tehran while balancing its relationships with Iran and Western allies, particularly the United States.
总部设在土耳其的国际关系分析师索利·厄泽尔说,数十年来,安卡拉在竞争与合作之间同德黑兰谨慎地走钢丝,同时权衡与伊朗及西方盟友、尤其是美国之间的关系。
Turkey's banking regulator recently revoked the operating licence of Iran's Bank Mellat branch in Istanbul, although the official notice did not say the move was intended to enforce US sanctions. The US Treasury also said Ankara had agreed after talks with Washington to stop flights by Iran's Mahan Air as part of efforts to comply with US measures against Tehran.
土耳其银行业监管机构 recently? Need no English. "最近吊销了..." "recently" = 最近. official notice = 官方通告"did not say move intended to enforce US sanctions" = 没有称此举旨在执行美国的制裁措施. US Treasury = 美国财政部Ankara had agreed after talks with Washington = 安卡拉在与华盛顿会谈后同意stop flights by Iran's Mahan“我们在土耳其看到过,那些在情报收集方面拥有强大能力的伊朗人确实存在;一旦这种情况发生,无论是在热战还是冷战中,相关国家都会陷入复杂的局势中。”他说。
Three Turkish airlines also suspended flights to Iran. Turkish authorities have also repeatedly accused Iran of hostile operations inside the country, including assassinations and abductions of Iranian dissidents. In January, security forces arrested six people suspected of spying for Iran and gathering information about the Incirlik air base, which is used by US forces. Becoming involved in the conflict against the Houthis could upset Ankara's already delicate relationship with Tehran, Ozel told RFI. “The Iranians who actually have a lot of [intelligence] capabilities in Turkey, we’ve seen that before, then you find yourself in a hot or cold war,” he said.