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伯纳姆充满激情的个人表演让工党欣喜若狂,但他的承诺尚需时日才能兑现。Burnham’s emotional solo act had Labour in raptures but his promises will take time to come good

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杰西卡·埃尔戈特 政治副主编 “再次看到希望”是本次大会的口号。但感觉更贴切的是“再试一次”。

Jessica Elgot Deputy political editor Hope Again is the conference slogan. But what felt even more apt was Try Again.

忘掉过去两年吧——此前该党赢得了历史性的多数席位,但其士气却从未与这一成就相匹配。如今,当党代会代表和议员们听完安迪·伯纳姆作为首相的首次演讲,鱼贯走出大厅时,气氛近乎狂热。你们到底去哪儿了?我们以前都在干什么——明明你一直都在那里?

Just forget about the last two years, after the party won a historic majority but where the mood never matched the achievement. Now, as conference delegates and MPs filed out of the hall after Andy Burnham’s first speech as prime minister it was close to euphoria. Where the hell have you been all our lives? What have we been doing – when you were right there all along?

这种感觉很难持久:伯纳姆本人警告称,他将做出的抉择会给工党的这股高涨热情泼一盆冷水。但这位“讨人喜欢”的首相表示,他准备经受最严酷的政治痛苦来改变这个国家。

That feeling rarely lasts: Burnham himself warned he would make choices that would be a harsh comedown from this Labour high. But the “people pleaser” prime minister said he was prepared to weather the worst political pain to change the country.

他盯准的是英国政治中最不可触碰的一些议题——社会护理、养老金三重锁定机制、英国脱欧、水务和地方政府公房的公共控制权以及改变选举制度。

In his sights are some of the most untouchable topics in British politics – social care, the triple lock, Brexit, public control of water and council homes and changing the voting system.

这篇演讲几乎完全由伯纳姆一人独立撰写,他一直修改到最后一分钟。内阁大臣们讲述了许多关于这位新首相开会如何经常超时的事,他们不得不为多出来的半小时空出日程,因为他渴望闲聊、渴望理解、渴望争论、渴望说服。

Burnham wrote the speech almost entirely alone, working on it until the very last minute. Cabinet ministers have been full of tales of how often meetings overrun with the new prime minister, clearing their diaries for the extra half an hour, because of his desire to chew the fat, to understand, to argue, to persuade.

就在演讲前一晚,当伯纳姆重新修改时,密友们才看到了这篇演讲。但唐宁街的战略家们非常清楚,这位新首相确实需要向这个几乎不了解他的国家介绍他自己以及他的故事。

Close friends saw the speech just the night before, as Burnham reworked it. But strategists in Number 10 were very clear that the new prime minister did need to introduce himself, his story, to the country who barely know him.

他讲述的每一个故事都源自他的个人经历,这些故事旨在说明他推动根本性变革的决心。他提到了祖母基蒂在默西塞德郡购买的房子——那栋房子曾为他的家庭带来安定与保障,而这种保障是年轻一代如今无法再拥有的;他说,那栋房子被卖掉了,用来支付基蒂的护理费用。他还承诺,未来的政府绝不会再让这种情况发生(即不会再让家庭为了支付护理费用而卖掉房产)。他还提到了刚刚去世的父亲罗伊,以及他对护理工作者的承诺:他会提升他们的职业地位。

Each judicious choice of an anecdote from his past drew on his personal history to explain his desire to make fundamental change. The home in Old Roan in Merseyside bought by his grandmother Kitty, which gave his family security that the younger generation cannot now experience: sold, he explained, to pay for Kitty’s care, which he will promise future generations will never happen under a new national care service. The care of his dad, Roy, who died two weeks ago, and his promise to his care workers that he would elevate their profession.

当谈到父亲时,伯纳姆情绪激动得难以自控,停顿了很久,以至于现场有一位听众忍不住喊道:“你能做到的,安迪!”人们希望支持他,相信他。

Burnham was overcome with emotion at the moment he spoke about his father, pausing for so long it caused one member of the audience to cry out: “You can do it Andy.”They want to back him, they want to believe.

与一般的演讲不同,伯纳姆在演讲中并没有攻击自己的对手,也没有提到凯米·巴德诺克或奈杰尔·法拉奇。然而,当伯纳姆以最鲜明的言辞划清了与保守派的界限(特别是关于公共所有权的问题时,现场响起了最热烈的掌声)。

Unusually for a conference speech, Burnham did not use the speech to attack his opponents. There were no reference to either Kemi Badenoch or Nigel Farage. But one of the loudest cheers came from the crowd as Burnham drew the dividing line with the right in the starkest terms on public ownership.

“英国的保守派总是喊着‘要夺回控制权’,但别忘了,其实是他们自己首先放弃了控制权,”他说。这番话深深触动了欢呼雀跃的工党听众。

“The British right talk about ‘taking back control’. Never let them forget, they are the ones that gave it away in the first place,” he said, the reddest of red meat to a jubilant Labour crowd.

那么,伯纳姆——以及工党——真的获得了自由去推行改革吗?并没有。因为首相仍然受到自己党派宣言以及公共财政状况的制约。“我非常希望改革能更快推进,”他说,“但我必须说实话,国家目前的财政状况不允许我这么做。”他提出的那些最激进的改革计划都被暂时搁置了。工党计划到2030年对现有的福利制度进行全面改革;而新的国家护理服务体系只有在放弃某些税收承诺的情况下才能得以实施;至于加入关税同盟或单一市场(甚至重新加入欧盟),这些也都超出了党派宣言所规定的“红线”范围。

So, was it Burnham – and Labour – unleashed? No, because the prime minister is still constrained by his own party manifesto and the state of the public finances. “I would love to go quicker,” he said. “But I have to be honest about what the country can afford.”His most radical promises are promises deferred. The party will overhaul the triple lock by 2030, the national care service can only be paid for if the party ditches its tax pledges, it can only explore a customs union, the single market, even rejoining, outside the manifesto’s “red lines”.

即便在这场二十年来工党最团结的全国代表大会上,工党的一个自豪传统依然存在——悲观主义。而且,当内阁大臣们坦诚相见时,令人担忧的原因也随之潜滋暗长。第一个原因是民众对变革的急切渴望——仅仅告诉他们“再等等”是远远不够的。

Even at this most united Labour conference the party has seen in two decades, there remains a proud Labour tradition – pessimism. And there are causes for concern, which creep in when cabinet minsters are at their most candid. The first is the impatience of the country for change – and that being told to wait will not be enough.

他们说,人们现在正处于水深火热之中。预算案需要表明,任何残存的紧缩资金都必须用于减轻民众的日常生活成本负担。

People, they say, are suffering now. The budget will need to show that any sparse funds that remain must be delivered to giving people relief from everyday costs.

一位内阁大臣表示:“人们需要在明年就切实体会到实际益处。我们拥有的时间比想象的要少。”

“People need to start feeling actual benefits next year. We have got less time than we might think,” one cabinet minister said.

第二个原因是担心工党未能覆盖足够广泛的基本盘,尽管利物浦的大会将其声望推向了新高。尽管存在明显的“伯恩姆效应”,但民调结果依然变幻莫测。在伯恩姆发表演讲的前夕,YouGov的一项民调显示,英国改革党以微弱优势重返第一的位置。

The second is a fear that Labour is not speaking to a broad enough base, no matter the elevation in Liverpool. Though there has been a discernible “Burnham bounce”, the polls are volatile. A YouGov poll on the eve of Burnham’s speech put Reform UK back in first place by a tiny margin.

工党正借助右翼的分裂来重新聚合进步联盟,这是一个优势,但不太可能让他们获得多数席位。很少有内阁大臣对自身既定竞选宣言的局限性感到如此沮丧,以至于愿意用它去换取自民党宣言的局限性。在对工党组建多数派政府至关重要的威尔士或苏格兰,目前还没有看到复苏的迹象。

Labour is reuniting a progressive coalition with a divided right, which is an advantage but which is unlikely to put them in majority territory. There are few cabinet ministers who are so frustrated with the constraints of their own legacy manifesto who want to swap that for the constraints of a Lib Dem manifesto. There is no sign of revival yet in Wales or Scotland, so crucial to a Labour majority government.

当尘埃落定,工党战略家们开始剖析伯恩姆在演讲中誓言要打破的那些陈规陋习时,许多人可能会想,他当初为什么不选择一条轻松的路。

When the dust clears and Labour strategists pick over the bodies of the sacred cows that Burnham promised to slay in his speech, many will probably wonder why he didn’t choose an easier life.

但或许正因为伯恩姆为竞选首相等了这么久——并眼看着那么多其他人挥霍了这一崇高职务——他深知自己别无选择,只能武装起来迎接这场战斗。

But perhaps now Burnham has waited this long to be prime minister – and watched so many others squander the office – he knows he has no choice but to tool up for the fight.