你是否注意到，媒体突然意识到，石油出口受限的压力如今正落在伊朗身上？油轮追踪机构发布的新报告证实了特朗普政府一直在说的事情：布拉德·库珀海军上将和美国中央司令部部队扭转了霍尔木兹海峡的战局。
Did you notice the sudden media realization that the oil export pressure is now working against Iran? New reports from tanker-tracking groups confirm what the Trump Administration has been saying: Adm. Brad Cooper and the forces of U.S. Central Command have turned around the battle of the Strait of Hormuz.
Kpler的数据显示，经海峡运出的石油七日日均量为1419万桶，接近战前1713万桶的基准水平。减少的石油量中，大部分是被美国封锁拦下的伊朗石油出口。沙特绕行管道 recently 恢复输油，随后延布港加快石油装载，以便经红海转运，这将释放更多出口能力。
Data from Kpler indicate that the seven-day average for oil clearing the Strait is 14.19 million barrels a day, approaching the prewar baseline of 17.13 million. Most of what’s missing are Iranian oil exports stopped by the U.S. blockade. The recent resumption of oil flowing through the Saudi bypass pipeline, followed by accelerating loadings at the port of Yanbu to transit the Red Sea, will unlock more exports.
这就是进展的样子：伊朗的石油被拦住了，其他国家的石油却越来越能够顺利通过。这样既可减轻西方及其海湾盟友面临的压力，也让伊朗不得不四处筹措资金。封锁前或两次封锁之间已经运至海上的石油正被迅速消耗，不过款项到账仍会有较长的滞后。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特估计，伊朗方面将在十月中旬将这批石油最后一批交付给中国。
This is what progress looks like: Iran’s oil is blocked while the world’s oil increasingly gets through. The effect is to reduce pressure on the West and its Gulf allies while Iran must scrounge for money. The regime is rapidly running out of oil already on the sea from before or between blockades, though payments will have a longer lag. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates the Iranians will deliver the last of this oil to China in mid-October.
与此同时，贝森特对伊朗其他贸易伙伴的施压比以往任何时候都更猛烈。这一影响在阿拉伯联合酋长国和土耳其最为明显；前者切断了与伊朗的贸易，后者正在关闭伊朗银行。该地区还在暂停航班，切断通往德黑兰的空中通道。伊朗正在一条接一条地失去生命线。
Meanwhile, Mr. Bessent has been squeezing Iran’s other trade partners as never before. This has been felt most acutely in the United Arab Emirates, which responded by cutting off trade with Iran, and Turkey, which is closing Iranian banks. The region is also closing its skies to Tehran by suspending flights. One by one, Iran is losing its lifelines.