抵押贷款利率飙升至近三年来最高水平，持续攀升并突破7%的门槛。
Mortgage rates spiked to their highest level in nearly three years, continuing their climb above the 7% threshold.
为何重要：由于库存不足和利率高企，房屋销售本就疲软，这增加了市场进一步冻结的风险。
Why it matters: Housing sales were already slow due to a lack of inventory and elevated rates, creating a risk that the market could further its freeze.
细节聚焦：据房地美（Freddie Mac）报告，截至周四，30年期固定抵押贷款利率的周平均值为7.28%。
Zoom in: The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28% as of Thursday, Freddie Mac reported.
这一水平较一年前上升了0.94个百分点，较上周上升了0.25个百分点。
That's up 0.94 points from a year ago, and up 0.25 points from last week.
抵押贷款利率与10年期美国国债收益率紧密相关，自2月伊朗战争爆发以来，国债收益率已上升超过1.25个百分点。影响：抵押贷款申请量正在急剧下降。
Mortgage rates closely track 10-year Treasury yields, which have risen by over 1.25 percentage points since the start of the Iran war in February. The impact: Mortgage applications are plunging.
美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）周三报告称，截至9月25日当周的抵押贷款申请量较前一周下降了6%。
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday that applications during the week ended Sept. 25 fell 6% from a week earlier.
随着利率升至2023年11月以来的最高点，购房者开始转向可调利率抵押贷款。
With rates at their highest point since November 2023, home buyers are beginning to turn to adjustable-rate mortgages.
根据MBA的数据，在最新统计周期内，可调利率抵押贷款（ARMs）占抵押贷款申请的比例为10.3%，创下2025年10月以来的最高纪录。
ARMs made up 10.3% of mortgage applications in the most recent period, marking the highest point since October 2025, according to MBA.
MBA首席执行官鲍勃·布罗克斯米特（Bob Broeksmit）在一份声明中表示：“随着高利率环境持续给潜在购房者和寻求再融资的房主带来压力，近几周的可负担性和借款人需求有所减弱。”
"Affordability and borrower demand have weakened in recent weeks as the higher-rate environment continues to put pressure on both prospective homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance," MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit said in a statement.
关注焦点：有早期迹象表明，随着卖家试图吸引买家，利率上升可能会对房价造成下行压力。
What we're watching: There are early signs that rising rates could put downward pressure on prices as sellers look to attract buyers.
KB Home高级副总裁威廉·霍林格（William Hollinger）上周在财报电话会议上表示：“市场状况疲软和可负担性压力加大，导致我们许多市场的定价压力增加。”他指出，这家房屋建筑商“已对价格进行了调整”。现实检验：利率可能不会长期维持高位。"我们预计明年情况会有所改善，因为能源价格回落，且已被货币市场定价的激进美联储紧缩周期并未完全兑现，导致抵押贷款利率回吐了大部分近期涨幅，" Capital Economics 高级北美经济学家托马斯·瑞安周二写道。
"Softer market conditions and greater affordability pressures have contributed to increased pricing pressures across many of our markets," KB Home senior VP William Hollinger said last week on an earnings call, noting the home builder had "made pricing adjustments." Reality check: Rates may not remain elevated for long. "We expect the situation to improve next year, as energy prices drop back and the aggressive Fed tightening cycle which has been priced into money markets does not fully materialise, causing mortgage rates to retrace most of their recent increases," Capital Economics senior North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote Tuesday.
Capital Economics 预测，到 2027 年底，30 年期固定抵押贷款利率将平均为 6.25%。
Capital Economics projected that 30-year fixed mortgage rates would average 6.25% by the end of 2027.