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美国消费者新闻与商业频道

高利率正在断送美国人翻新房屋的梦想High interest rates are foreclosing on the American home remodeling dream

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由于房贷利率对大多数美国人而言依然高得难以承受,许多人只能继续住在现在的房子里。但这并不意味着房屋无需修缮和维护。一些房主认为,既然无法搬进新家,那就把旧房“翻新”一下——比如建个新露台,或者打造一个步入式衣帽间。

With mortgage rates continuing to stay untenably high for most Americans, many are staying put. But that doesn't mean homes don't need improving and upkeep. And some homeowners figure that if they can't move into a new home, they'll make their old home "newer" — a new deck or perhaps a walk-in closet.

传统上,房主们首先会考虑申请房屋净值贷款或房屋净值信贷额度。但如今就连这些贷款也因成本过高而让房主望而却步。结果就是,房主们被困在日渐老旧的房子里,既难以脱身,也无法对房屋进行改善。

Traditionally, a home equity loan or home equity line of credit would be the first tool to reach for. But even those are getting too expensive for homeowners. This leaves homeowners effectively trapped in aging homes with no easy way out, or way to improve them.

即便有些房主确实申请了房屋净值贷款——今年第二季度,申请二次抵押贷款或房屋净值信贷额度的房主数量较第一季度增长了近20%——他们很可能并未将这笔资金用于房屋修缮。专家指出,他们申请贷款只是为了维持基本生活。

And even when homeowners are tapping into home equity loans — homeowners did originate nearly 20% more second mortgages or HELOCs in the second quarter of this year compared with the first quarter — they likely aren't using the equity for improvements. Experts say they are using them to stay afloat. Untapped or expensive, Americans are sitting on a record amount of home equity.

无论是因为贷款渠道受限还是成本过高,如今美国人的房屋净值总额已创下历史新高。

"As rates keep rising, tapping into home equity will become more and more expensive for homeowners.

“随着利率持续上升,房主们申请房屋净值贷款的成本也会越来越高。这总体上会抑制消费支出,尤其是对房屋装修这类大额消费的影响更为显著,”理财规划与财富管理公司Facet的首席投资官汤姆·格拉夫说道。在格拉夫看来,这种困境其实是加息政策带来的必然结果。

This will generally hold back consumer spending, but it will hit big-ticket items, like home renovations, particularly hard," said Tom Graff, chief investment officer of Facet, a financial planning and wealth management firm. This struggle is something built into the rate hikes, according to Graff. "The Fed is hiking interest rates in an attempt to control inflation.

“美联储加息旨在控制通胀,其手段之一就是抑制消费支出。因此,消费者难以筹措资金进行大额消费其实正是政策设计的效果,”他说道。不过,美联储的货币政策对以消费为主导的经济体也暗藏风险。

One of the ways that is supposed to work is by pushing down consumer spending. So the fact that consumers will struggle to finance large purchases is by design," he said. But the Fed policy also comes with risks for a consumer-driven economy.

“目前消费对GDP增长的拉动作用已经明显减弱,”格拉夫指出。

"Consumer spending is already lagging way behind as a driver of GDP growth," Graff said.

他补充道,当前经济缺乏缓冲空间:就业市场疲软、工资增长持续放缓、汽油与柴油价格居高不下,再加上净移民数量为负,种种因素都加剧了经济压力。目前,对经济发展贡献最大的领域当属数据中心。

And he added there is little cushion in the economy, given the soft jobs market, wage growth that has been declining, high gas — as well as diesel — prices, and net negative immigration. The biggest economic driver right now is data centers.

“数据中心领域的支出确实在推动GDP增长,并维持着经济的稳定。如果这一势头稍有放缓,经济就很容易陷入衰退,”格拉夫补充道。

"Spending on data centers is really driving GDP growth and holding the economy together. If that were to slow even mildly, the economy could easily fall into recession," Graff added.

Angi是一家连接房主与承包商及其他服务专业人士的家居服务平台,其联合创始人兼首席客户官安吉·希克斯表示,由于房屋净值贷款和房屋净值信贷额度的成本变得难以承受,许多房主都暂时搁置了大型装修计划。

Angie Hicks, co-founder and chief customer officer of Angi, the home services marketplace that connects homeowners with contractors and other service professionals, says homeowners are holding back on big projects as HELOCs and equity loans get priced out of reach.

希克斯指出,人们会尽可能长时间地维持2%至3%的房贷利率水平。

Hicks says that people are going to hold on to that two to three percent mortgage rate as long as they can.

“那种低利率再也不会出现了,如今6%到7%的利率水平才属于正常范畴,”希克斯说道。正因如此,许多房主都希望把目前的住所打造成“终身居所”。

"And it's never coming back, this six to seven percent is a more normal range," Hicks said. So that has owners wanting to turn their home "for right now" into a "forever home."

“我们发现,人们居住在同一套房子里的时间比原先预期的要长大约五年,”希克斯说,“大家普遍感到经济压力很大。”她表示,人们现在更重视房屋维护,宁愿给暖气系统做保养,也不愿进行大规模的厨房翻新。

"We are seeing people living in their houses about five years longer than they thought," Hicks said. "People are feeling a squeeze." Hicks says people are prioritizing maintenance, doing a furnace tune-up rather than a major kitchen remodel.

“谁也不想在冬天最冷的那天早上醒来,发现暖气坏了吧,所以大家才愿意花钱做保养,”希克斯解释道。这种消费行为其实与经济动荡时期的情形如出一辙。

"You don't want to wake up on the coldest morning of the year in the winter to a furnace that doesn't work, so people are spending for the tune-up," Hicks said. This is consumer behavior that is on par with other times of economic angst.

“每当出现通货膨胀或经济冲击时,人们并不会停止在房屋上的开支,只是会重新调整支出优先级——比如选择更换热水器而非修建新露台,”希克斯说道。

"When inflation kicks in or there is a shock to the economy, people don't stop spending on their homes, they just reprioritize what they are spending on, for instance, a water heater instead of a new deck," Hicks said.

至于房屋装修方面,人们往往倾向于动用积蓄,或者选择那些可以分阶段实施的工程,比如庭院美化等。

And when it comes to home improvement, people tend to tap into savings or take on projects, like landscaping, that lend themselves to being done in phases.

Angi的数据显示,目前有60%的消费者都在推迟装修计划,转而优先进行房屋维护。

Angi data shows 60 percent of consumers are now putting off projects and switching to maintenance.

厨房和浴室是最常进行改造的房间,但根据希克斯(Hicks)的说法,即使不进行昂贵的升级,也有很多方法可以让这些空间焕然一新。她指出,更换新橱柜是厨房改造中最昂贵的部分,因此房主们通常会选择更换水龙头或重新粉刷墙面。

Kitchens and bathrooms are the most popular projects, but there are lots of ways those spaces can be given a fresh look, according to Hicks, without the big-ticket upgrades. She says new cabinetry is the biggest cost of a kitchen remodel, so owners are looking at swapping out the handles or applying new coats of paint instead.

“数据显示,消费者们选择继续居住在自己的房子里,但推迟了大规模的装修项目,”零售数据分析公司 Datavations 的首席执行官菲利普·奥德尔费尔特(Philip Odelfelt)表示。该公司负责追踪家居建材制造商的销售数据。

"The data points to a consumer who is staying in their home but deferring major projects," said Philip Odelfelt, CEO of Datavations, a retail analytics firm that tracks point-of-sale data for home improvement manufacturers.

根据 Datavations 的统计,从 2025 年 9 月到 2026 年 8 月,Home Depot 和 Lowe's 的高端装修产品销量相比去年同期下降了 10% 至 28%。

From September 2025 through August 2026, big-ticket renovation categories declined in a range of 10% to 28% at Home Depot and Lowe's compared with the prior year, according to Datavations.

Lowe's 的首席财务官布兰登·辛克(Brandon Sink)在最近的一次财报电话会议上表示,消费者的购买力仍然是公司面临的主要问题;这一趋势体现在消费者更倾向于优先进行维修和保养工作,以及选择一些成本较低的装修项目。淋浴间改造产品受到的影响最为严重:根据 Datavations 的数据,从 2025 年 9 月到 2026 年 8 月,Home Depot 和 Lowe's 的淋浴间产品销量下降了 21%,其中淋浴间套件的销量降幅甚至达到了 28%。

Lowe's CFO Brandon Sink said on the home improvement chain's most recent earnings call that affordability remains a major concern, and he added that it is "really translating to prioritization of repair and maintenance spend and the projects that our consumers are engaging in, and this ongoing trend of caution around big ticket discretionary." Shower remodel products were among the hardest hit. From September 2025 through August 2026, sales of shower stalls, kits, and enclosures fell 21% at Home Depot and Lowe's compared to the same period a year earlier, with unit sales down even more sharply, 28%, according to Datavations.

浴缸的销量也下降了 10%(虽然幅度较小,但仍相当明显)。由于这种下降趋势同时出现在两家零售商身上,而非仅限于某一家公司,奥德尔费尔特认为这反映了消费者行为的普遍变化,而非个别公司的特殊情况。

Bathtub sales dropped a smaller but still notable 10%, with units down 12%. Because the declines show up at both retailers, not just one, Odelfelt said it points to a broader shift in consumer behavior, not a one-chain fluke. The decline also steepens as ticket size rises.

此外,随着装修产品价格的上涨,这种下降趋势变得更加明显:淋浴间产品的平均售价约为 700 美元,而浴缸的平均售价为 309 美元;价格较低的拉下式厨房水龙头的平均售价为 147 美元,其销量仅下降了 3%。

Shower stalls and kits average roughly $700 in sales price, while bathtubs are roughly $309. Pull-down kitchen faucets, with a much lower $147 average selling price, have seen sales decline about 3%.

“过去12个月里,我们的门店销售数据呈现出明显的梯度特征,”奥德尔费尔特说道。“像厨房水龙头这类低价商品,其销量同比仅出现小幅下滑。但一旦价格区间升至300至700美元——比如浴缸、淋浴房等产品——销量降幅便明显加快。……房主们并未减少日常维护支出,但那些规模较大的装修工程则被纷纷推迟。”据Datavations分析,表面上的数据其实低估了市场的萎缩程度。

"There's a clear gradient in our in-store data from the past twelve months," Odelfelt said. "Lower-ticket items like kitchen faucets ... are down just a few percent year-over-year. But as you move into the $300-to-$700 range — bathtubs, shower stalls — declines accelerate. ... Homeowners aren't pulling back on maintenance, but the bigger renovation projects are getting deferred." The surface-level numbers actually understate the pullback, according to Datavations.

考虑到过去一年中各品类商品结构的变化因素后可以发现,几乎所有与装修相关的品类的单店产出都在下降。格雷夫指出,低价维护类商品的销量相对稳定,这虽有助于维持整体营收水平,但即便在整体销售额看似持平的门店中,单店产出依然有所下滑。“零售商们不断增加商品品类并扩大分销渠道,但这掩盖了一个事实:真正带着装修需求进店的顾客正越来越少,”他补充道。

Normalizing for assortment changes over the past year, per-location productivity is declining across nearly every renovation-related category. Lower-ticket maintenance items have held steadier in sales, which can help to prop up the top line, but the per-store productivity weakened even where top-line sales looked flat, Graff said. "Retailers are adding SKUs and distribution, which masks the fact that the customer walking in with a renovation project is increasingly absent," he added.

杜兰大学商学院教授马克·拉奇福德长期研究与房屋净值相关的消费者行为。他表示,如今许多人都会在心里算一笔账,一旦发现借贷成本过高,便会选择放弃装修计划。拉奇福德本人如今也切身感受到了这种压力。

Mark Ratchford, a business school professor at Tulane University who studies consumer behavior related to home equity, says that a lot of people are doing the calculation in their head, and they are noting that if the cost of borrowing is that high, they just won't do it. Ratchford says he is among those now feeling the pain as a consumer.

“我的厨房确实需要翻新,但一看到报价单和利率水平,我就知道自己负担不起。只能再等等了——现在的房地产市场就是如此,”拉奇福德说道。“大家现在都只做必要的维修,那些纯属美观性的改造则统统省了。”高昂的借贷成本同样重创了那些需要翻修的房产市场。

"I need to remodel my kitchen, but when I look at the price and the interest rates, I can't afford that. I'll just wait, that is the whole housing market now," Ratchford said. "People are skipping cosmetic improvements and only doing the work they need to do." The high cost of borrowing has squashed the fixer-upper market too.

“五到十年前,人们常通过购买待修缮的房产、完成装修后再转手获利,如今这种情况已少见了。如今没人愿意买下需要翻修的房子,因为借贷成本与装修费用实在高得让人难以承受,”拉奇福德说道。

"Five to 10 years ago, people would flip houses, they would buy properties, do the work and then sell it for a profit, but that is less of a thing now. People are not buying fixer-uppers. The cost of borrowing and doing upgrades has gotten so high they can't do it," Ratchford said.

即便消费者确实有房屋净值贷款或房屋净值信用额度可用,他们也不会把这些钱投入新橱柜。拉奇福德说:“如果你动用房屋净值或房屋净值信用额度,并不是为了改善住宅,而是用来偿还信用卡债务。”

Even when consumers do have home equity or HELOCs available, they aren't pouring that money into new cabinets. "If you are using home equity, HELOCs, you are not using it for home improvements, you are using it to cover credit card debt," Ratchford said.

HomeHero Roofing公司联合所有人兼总裁安德烈·卡齐米尔斯基亲眼看到,房主在尝试升级住宅时,正苦于资金流动性不足和房屋净值匮乏。长期以来,人们通常会动用房屋净值来支付大规模住宅翻修费用。

Andre Kazimierski, co-owner and president of HomeHero Roofing, is seeing firsthand the lack of liquidity and equity that homeowners are battling when trying to make upgrades. Historically, it's been very common for people to tap into their home equity to pay for major home renovations.

卡齐米尔斯基说:“作为一家屋面工程公司,我们的客户一直很常利用房屋净值信用额度或房屋净值贷款来支付更换屋顶的费用。”

"As a roofing company, it's always been a very common occurrence for our customers to utilize HELOCs or home equity loans to pay for roof replacements," Kazimierski said.

更换屋顶、更换窗户和更换暖通空调系统等大型改造项目,往往费用高昂,却又无法避免。当人们花钱进行改造时,往往是因为别无选择,因为住宅的这些部分已接近使用寿命终点。

Major renovations like roof replacements, window replacements, and HVAC replacements are among the kinds of projects that tend to be very expensive yet unavoidable. When people spend, it is often because they have no other choice as those parts of their home reach the end of their lifespan.

卡齐米尔斯基说:“因此,当这些无法避免的费用出现时,许多人手头没有足够现金一次性支付,所以就会选择动用房屋净值。总的来说,由于人们现在连这样做都很困难,我们可能会开始看到大型翻修项目数量下降。”

"So, when those unavoidable costs come up, many people don't have the cash on hand to pay for them outright, which is why they'll take advantage of tapping into their home equity. All that to say, with people struggling to be able to do this now, we could start to see a decline in major renovations," Kazimierski said.

翻修项目减少将给DIY装修市场和专业人士带来冲击;如果这种情况持续太久,还可能对房主造成更长期的影响。

The lack of renovations will mete out pain to the DIY renovations market and pros, and if the situation lasts too long, also potentially to the homeowners in more lasting ways.

卡齐米尔斯基说:“随着年份推移,我们似乎会遭遇越来越极端的天气,因此许多住宅都面临强风、暴雨和极端气温等挑战。如果必要的翻修因人们无力动用房屋净值支付而被推迟,这可能使住宅更容易受到日益多变天气的侵害,并造成本可避免但代价高昂的损失。”对房地产市场造成的损害则更容易预判。

"As each year passes we seem to encounter more and more extreme weather, so lots of homes are dealing with things like high winds, heavy rain, and extreme temperatures. If necessary renovations are put off because people are unable to tap into their home equity to pay for them, that could leave homes even more vulnerable to increasingly volatile weather, potentially resulting in avoidable, costly damage," Kazimierski said. The damage to the real estate market is more predictable.

“当动用房屋净值变得成本高昂时,自主性资本项目往往会成为最先被推迟的事项,无论对家庭而言,还是对管理投资组合的业主而言都是如此。”Praxis Rock Advisors是一家房地产资本咨询公司,其资本形成与投资者关系董事总经理吉妮·法隆表示。“如果这些资金多年仍被锁定,这对更广泛的住房经济意味着:交易减少,翻修支出减少,市场上的现有房主会选择继续持有,而不是出售或改善房产。”他补充道。

"When tapping equity gets expensive, discretionary capital projects are often the first thing deferred, both for households and for owners managing a portfolio," said Genine Fallon, managing director of capital formation and investor relations at Praxis Rock Advisors, a real estate capital advisory firm. "What this means for the broader housing economy if that equity stays locked up for years: less turnover, less renovation spend, and a market where existing owners simply hold rather than transact or improve," he added.