巴西周日公布的选举结果清楚地表明了一件事：该国正在进一步右倾，即使是拉丁美洲左翼的老狮子路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦也无法再阻挡它了。
Brazil’s election results Sunday make one thing clear: The country is turning further to the right, and not even the old lion of Latin America’s left, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, can stand in its way anymore.
作者：Juan Pablo Spinetto你可以从弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗强于预期的表现中看出这一点。这位45岁的前总统Jair Bolsonaro的长子在巴西第一轮选举中以47%对45%击败卢拉，使民意调查人员感到惊讶，以建立10月25日的决选。但当你看国会和地方选举时，这种转变更加引人注目：自该国通过1988年宪法以来，Bolsonaro的自由党准备在立法机构开始时在参议院拥有最大的集团，而他的盟友赢得或保留了包括圣保罗，米纳斯吉拉斯和巴拉那在内的关键州。
By Juan Pablo Spinetto You can see it in the stronger-than-expected performance of Flávio Bolsonaro. The 45-year-old eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro surprised pollsters by beating Lula, 47% to 45%, in Brazil’s first round to set up an Oct. 25 runoff. But the shift is even more striking when you look at congressional and local races: Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party is poised to have the largest bloc in the senate at the start of a legislature since the country adopted the 1988 constitution, while his allies won or retained key states including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná.
博尔索纳罗家族现在不仅有真正的机会重返总统宝座--没有一位候选人在提前完成第一轮后输掉了巴西的决选--而且还选举贾尔的另外两个儿子、他的妻子和兄弟进入国会。
The Bolsonaro family now not only has a real shot at returning to the presidency — no candidate has lost a runoff in Brazil after finishing the first round ahead — but also elected two other sons of Jair, his wife and his brother to congress.
如何解释一个族长因密谋政变而被软禁的家庭如此强势的表现？卢拉领导的工人党（PT）肯定可以想出几种解释：年近81岁的卢拉看起来和听起来都像昨天的人;总统低估了他的对手，包括在投票前几天拒绝参加与博尔索纳罗的一场关键辩论;现任者到处都在苦苦挣扎;经济并不完全繁荣，负担能力正在伤害巴西人;卢拉政府的支持率一直低于竞争力所需的50%门槛;围绕最高法院的丑闻进一步削弱了他的支持率。此外，总统很容易忘记了他曾承诺不再竞选连任。
What explains such a strong showing by a family whose patriarch is under house arrest for plotting a coup? Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) can surely come up with several explanations: At almost 81, Lula looks and sounds like yesterday’s man; the president underestimated his rival, including by refusing to attend a crucial debate with Bolsonaro days before the vote; incumbents are struggling everywhere; the economy isn’t exactly booming, and affordability is hurting Brazilians; the Lula government’s approval rating has remained consistently below the 50% threshold needed to be competitive; the scandals surrounding the Supreme Court have further eroded his popularity. Plus, the president has conveniently forgotten that he had promised not to run for reelection again.
这些因素都多少存在。但这次投票也意味着对卢拉、劳工党（PT）及其左翼理念的根本性否定。巴西历史上一直是一个保守国家，如今正变得越来越右倾。这个国家人口更老龄化、更富裕、更虔诚，独立劳动者更多，而支撑卢拉政治生涯的工会影响力则有所减弱。犯罪、腐败和毒品贩运始终位列巴西人最担忧的问题之中，而劳工党在这些问题上一直难以给出令人信服的答案。
There is a bit of all that. But this vote also amounts to a fundamental rejection of Lula, the PT and its left-wing ideas. Brazil, historically a conservative nation, is becoming increasingly right-wing. The country is older, wealthier and more religious, with more independent workers and less influence from the unions that underpinned Lula’s political career. Crime, corruption and drug trafficking consistently rank among Brazilians’ biggest concerns, issues on which the PT has struggled to provide convincing answers.
此次竞选活动暴露出该党被困在自身意识形态的泡沫中，难以吸引赢得选举所需的独立选民。直到最后几天，其策略家们才如梦初醒，推出了一系列充满民粹主义和绝望气息的措施。
The campaign exposed a party trapped in its ideological bubble, struggling to attract the independent voters it needs to win. Its strategists only woke up in the final days, unveiling measures that reeked of populism and desperation.
没有比看到现代巴西最具影响力的政治人物，却难以击败一位同样深陷丑闻和腐败指控的毫无魅力的参议员，更能体现这种结构性变化的了。“如果你必须在我和一位天才之间做出选择，那另当别论。但现实并非如此，”卢拉在投票前对商界人士说道，并轻蔑地贬低了对手。然而，这位所谓的“非天才”似乎即将终结自己长达50多年的政治生涯。
There is no better symbol of this structural change than seeing the biggest political figure in modern Brazil struggling to beat an uninspiring senator who has himself been tarred by scandals and corruption allegations. “If you had to choose between me and a genius, that’s one thing. But that is not what is on the table,” Lula told businesspeople before the vote, dismissing his opponent. Well, this supposed non-genius is seemingly about to put his 50-year-plus political career to sleep.
巴西向右转的趋势，与近期整个拉丁美洲出现的意识形态转变相一致。如果博索纳罗在第二轮选举中获胜，这将是过去一年该地区右翼总统候选人连续第七次获胜，证明除了现任领导人所面临的问题之外，一场更深层次的哲学性转变正在发生。这一趋势将令唐纳德·特朗普的白宫感到高兴，尽管意识形态上的相似性并不必然意味着经济或战略上的重新调整。
Brazil’s turn to the right matches the ideological switch we have seen across Latin America recently. A Bolsonaro triumph in the runoff would mark the seventh consecutive win by a right-wing presidential candidate in the region in the past year, proof that beyond the problems facing incumbents, a deeper philosophical shift is afoot. That’s something that will please Donald Trump’s White House, even if ideological affinity doesn’t guarantee economic or strategic realignment.
与此同时，投资者和市场将为周日的结果欢呼，因为特别是考虑到反对派在国会的强劲表现，这些结果使巴西更接近该国所需的财政调整和监管改革。弗拉维奥更年轻，看起来比他奢侈的父亲更务实;他已表示愿意以他父亲从未认真对待的方式缩小国家规模，即使他没有提供有关他计划的明确细节。但不要误会：同样的国会支持将帮助小博尔索纳罗。
推进他的经济议程可能会产生重大的制度冲突，因为他的参议员推动弹劾最高法院法官，而最终的弗拉维奥总统则寻求一种方法来释放贾尔·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）27年的刑期。
Investors and markets, in the meantime, will cheer Sunday’s results because, particularly given the opposition’s strong showing in congress, they put Brazil closer to the fiscal adjustment and regulatory overhaul that the country needs. Flávio is younger and appears more pragmatic than his extravagant father; he has signaled a willingness to shrink the state in ways his father never took too seriously, even if he hasn’t provided clear details on his plans. But don’t be mistaken: The same congressional support that will help Bolsonaro Jr. advance his economic agenda is likely to produce a major institutional clash, as his senators push to impeach Supreme Court judges and an eventual Flávio presidency seeks a way to free Jair Bolsonaro from his 27-year sentence.
随着卢拉高耸的政治影响力逐渐消退，巴西正在进入一个由右翼人物和思想主导的新时代。在决选前的三周里，候选人为每一张选票而战，这肯定会带来惊喜。如果博索纳罗在第二轮比赛中取得胜利，真正的考验将是该国的右翼能否为普通巴西人带来比左翼更好的结果。
As Lula’s towering political influence fades, Brazil is entering a new era dominated by right-wing figures and ideas. The next three weeks until the runoff will surely produce surprises as candidates fight for every vote. If Bolsonaro seals his victory in the second round, the real test will be whether the country’s right can deliver better results for ordinary Brazilians than the left ultimately did.
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