法国在明年总统选举之前正在应对重大债务危机和社会动荡。为什么重要:人们对欧洲及其他地区蔓延的担忧日益加剧,人们将这种情况与2010年代震撼欧盟的主权债务危机进行比较。
France is dealing with a major debt crisis and social unrest ahead of its presidential election next year. Why it matters: Worries are rising about contagion in Europe and beyond, and the situation is drawing comparisons with the sovereign debt crisis that rocked the European Union in the 2010s.
“法国政府债券收益率正在失控。对欧洲其他高负债国家的蔓延正在迅速展开,”布鲁金斯学会的罗宾·布鲁克斯最近写道。
"Government bond yields in France are spiraling out of control. Contagion to the rest of high-debt Europe is unfolding rapidly," Brookings' Robin Brooks wrote recently.
现状:欧洲和美国的政府债务收益率正在上升,但法国的情况更糟。
Where it stands: Yields on government debt are rising across Europe and in the U.S., but the situation in France is worse.
与德国债券相比,投资者要求持有法国债券更高的收益率,德国债券被视为更安全的替代方案。
Investors are demanding higher yields to hold French debt, compared with bonds from Germany, which are seen as a safer alternative.
周五,两国债券收益率之间的差异或利差达到了债务危机以来的最大水平。
On Friday, the difference, or spread, between the two countries' bond yields, was the widest it has been since the debt crisis.
麦格理(Macquarie)的蒂埃里·维兹曼(Thierry Witzman)周四在一份题为“法国吐司吗?”的报告中写道,由于“法国主权违约风险较高”,利差正在扩大。“比赛状态:法国正在应对美国人应该熟悉的挑战:赤字膨胀、人口老龄化推高成本以及政治两极分化加剧。
The spread is widening due to "higher sovereign default risk in France," Macquarie's Thierry Wizman wrote in a note Thursday titled: "Are the French Toast?" State of play: France is dealing with challenges that should have a familiar ring to Americans: a ballooning deficit, an aging population driving up costs, and rising political polarization.
这些压力在伊朗战争之前就在积累。这场冲突推高了能源成本并减缓了经济增长,使情况变得更糟。上周,法国各地高中生的抗议活动演变成暴力事件。
Those pressures were building before the war in Iran. The conflict has made things worse by driving up energy costs and slowing economic growth. Last week, protests by high school students across France turned violent.
威胁级别:越来越高。Evercore的一份报告称:“投资者担心迫在眉睫的财政危机可能会破坏欧盟的法律框架。”
Threat level: It's getting higher. "Investors are apprehensive about a looming fiscal crisis that could undermine the European Union's legal framework," per a note from Evercore.
“新出现的蔓延迹象,特别是对意大利的蔓延,令人担忧,因为它们预示着更广泛的不稳定。“缩小:法国政府正试图削减预算以安抚投资者,但在明年大选之前,它基本上处于搁置状态。这就是让投资者感到不安的地方。洛桑大学经济学教授吉安卢卡·贝尼奥(Gianluca Benigno)表示:“政治瘫痪是导火索。”市场正在评估法国控制支出的能力。
"Emerging signs of contagion, particularly to Italy, are concerning as they signal a broader instability." Zoom out: The French government is trying to cut its budget to reassure investors, but it is essentially in a holding pattern until next year's election. And that's what has investors antsy.
法国极右翼候选人马琳·勒庞在民意调查中领先,并提议将“黄金法则”写入宪法,限制赤字、限制支出以及减税。
"Political paralysis is the trigger," says Gianluca Benigno, an economics professor at University of Lausanne. The markets are pricing in France's ability to rein in its spending.
与此同时,极左翼总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)建议该国央行应取消其持有的约18%的法国债务:“拿走它并烧毁它。“字里行间:这样的行为就像放火烧你的房子来修复破裂的管道一样。
France's far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is leading in the polls and has proposed writing a "golden rule" into the constitution, limiting the deficit, to constrain spending, as well as tax cuts. Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, meanwhile, has suggested that the country's central bank should cancel the roughly 18% of French debt it holds: "Take it and burn it."
但弗吉尼亚大学法学院教授米图·古拉蒂(Mitu Gulati)表示,随着债务危机加剧,政策制定者往往会抓住更极端的想法,他研究主权债务,并于2012年帮助制定了希腊债务重组计划。“糟糕的财务状况催生了疯狂的解决方案,”他说。
Between the lines: An action like that would be like setting fire to your house to fix the broken pipes. But as debt crises intensify, policymakers tend to grab for more extreme ideas, says Mitu Gulati, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, who studies sovereign debt and helped develop a restructuring plan for Greek debt in 2012. "Bad financial conditions give birth to loony solutions," he says.
摩擦点:2010年代危机期间,投资者涌向美国寻求安全--购买美国国债,这里的收益率大幅下跌。
Friction point: During the 2010s crisis, investors ran to the U.S. for safety — buying up U.S. Treasury debt, and yields here fell sharply.
这一次,美国作为避风港的地位不太确定--目前尚不清楚这种情况是否会再次发生。事实上,美国10年期政府债券的收益率目前高于法国债务。现实检验:现在还为时过早,欧洲央行可能会介入提供帮助。
This time around, the U.S. status as a safe haven is less assured — it's unclear if that would happen again. In fact, the yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds is currently higher than on French debt. Reality check: It's still early days and likely that the European Central Bank will step in to help.
当前危机的原因与十多年前发生的情况不同--现在,发达国家在经历了多年的超低利率借贷后,已经适应了一个新时代。
The causes of the current crisis are different from what happened more than a decade ago — now, developed countries have adjusted to a new era after years of being able to borrow money at ultra-low rates.