伊朗近期加大了对途经霍尔木兹海峡的油轮的袭击力度，这给波斯湾原油出口的微弱复苏势头带来了威胁。
Iran has stepped up its attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile rebound of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
据由美国盟友军队组成的联合海上信息中心称，过去一个月里，近20艘商船——其中大多为油轮——在穿越霍尔木兹海峡、波斯湾或阿曼近海时遭到袭击。该中心负责向商船提供安全信息更新服务。
Nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, have come under attack over the past month while sailing through Hormuz, the Persian Gulf or off the coast of Oman, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, a group of U.S.-allied militaries that provide security updates to merchant vessels.
负责为各国防务部门及政府追踪船舶动态的Windward公司高级海事情报分析师米歇尔·威斯·博克曼指出，第三季度，平均每100艘穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只中就有约两艘遭到伊朗袭击。与此同时，美军正在对伊朗实施封锁，却又协助越来越多的油轮顺利通过该海峡。
Iran attacked roughly two ships for every 100 vessels that crossed the strait in the third quarter, said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, which tracks ships for defense departments and governments. The increased attacks come as the U.S. military has blockaded Iran and aided a growing number of tankers through Hormuz.
鉴于霍尔木兹海峡的安全形势依然严峻，在缺乏谈判协议或伊朗方面做出让步的情况下，原油出口的复苏势头究竟能维持多久尚不可知。
With the security situation in Hormuz still dangerous, it is unclear how long the rebound in crude exports can be sustained in the absence of a negotiated settlement or capitulation by Tehran.
通常情况下，油轮先将原油运至霍尔木兹海峡，随后在阿曼湾将石油转装至其他船只上，再运往亚洲。这种转运模式虽然能降低遭伊朗袭击的风险，却需要更多船只参与运输。
In many cases, tankers are bringing crude through Hormuz and then transferring the oil onto ships in the Gulf of Oman that haul it to Asia. This shuttle system reduces the exposure to attack from Iran but also requires more vessels to move the oil.
“华盛顿方面没人认为这种模式在经济上具有可持续性，”曾担任乔治·W·布什总统能源顾问、现任Rapidan Energy公司总裁的鲍勃·麦克纳利指出。他所说的“这种模式”即指美军在海湾地区的军事投入、船舶间的石油转运以及不断上涨的油轮运费。“这种运输方式效率极低，不仅对石油运输而言如此，对其他商品的运输也同样如此，”麦克纳利补充道。
"Nobody in Washington thinks this is sustainable financially," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, referring to the U.S. military commitment in the Gulf, ship-to-ship transfers and heightened tanker rates. "It's an inefficient way to move commodities, not just oil, out of Hormuz," McNally said.
据专门追踪油轮及全球贸易流向的Kpler公司数据显示，目前经霍尔木兹海峡运输的原油量每日均有波动，有时甚至能达到或超过伊朗战争爆发前的水平。
Crude oil shipments through Hormuz fluctuate daily, sometimes matching or even exceeding levels before the Iran war, according to data from Kpler, a firm that tracks tankers and global trade flows.
在其他时候，出口量低于冲突前的水平。根据周一公布的Kpler数据，截至周六的一周平均日出货量约为1030万桶，比战前1350万桶的基准低约23%。
At other times, exports are lower than volumes seen before the conflict. Shipments averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week ended Saturday, about 23% below a prewar baseline of 13.5 million bpd, according to Kpler data published Monday.
Windward估计，霍尔木兹的原油平均日产量为900万至1000万桶，而战前的基线为1450万桶。
Windward estimates crude through Hormuz is averaging 9-10 million bpd compared to a prewar baseline of 14.5 million bpd.
分析人士说，尽管原油流量不稳定，但与战争早期相比，随着美国军方成功地在阿曼海岸开辟出一条航线，原油流量已经增加。
While crude flows are volatile, they have ramped up compared to earlier in the war as the U.S. military has successfully carved out a shipping route along Oman's coast, analysts say.
但博克曼说，托运人通过霍尔木兹运送原油，船员的生命损失以及运费和保险费率都很高。据联合国机构国际海事组织称，自7月以来，至少有9名水手死亡、18人受伤、3人失踪。
But shippers are ferrying crude through Hormuz at high cost to the lives of their crews and in freight and insurance rates, Bockmann said. Since July, at least nine sailors have died, 18 injured and three are missing, according to the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations' agency.
博克曼说：“阿联酋正在渡过难关，但他们是在海上风险极高的时期渡过难关的。”随着安全局势恶化，从波斯湾向中国运送原油的成本飙升至每艘油轮每天100万美元。
"Volumes are getting through but they're getting through at a time of extremely high maritime risk," Bockmann said. As security has deteriorated, the cost of shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to China has skyrocketed to $1 million per day for each tanker.
总部位于伦敦的海事行业贸易出版物《劳埃德名录》主编理查德·米德（Richard Meade）在上周四的一次简报会上表示：“石油流动已经恢复，因为市场参与者接受了更大的运营复杂性和更高的成本。”
"Oil flows have recovered because the market participants have accepted greater operational complexity and higher costs," said Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd's List, a London-based maritime industry trade publication, in a briefing last Thursday.
但米德说，对油轮的威胁仍然没有改变。尽管有更多原油从霍尔木兹运出，国际基准布伦特油价仍徘徊在每桶100美元附近。
But the threat to tankers remains the same, Meade said. Brent oil prices, the international benchmark, are still hovering near $100 per barrel, even as more crude makes it out of Hormuz.
拉皮丹的麦克纳利表示：“如果市场相信这是可持续的，我认为价格会低得多。”他说，价格仍然居高不下，因为“在设定基准价格的消费地区交付、保险和运送原油的成本仍然很高”。
"If the market believed that this was sustainable, I think you would be seeing much lower prices," McNally at Rapidan said. Prices remain high because "it's still costly to deliver and insure and land crude in consuming regions where benchmark prices are set," he said.
麦克纳利说，虽然更多的石油流出，但霍尔木兹的航行自由尚未恢复。德黑兰继续坚称其控制着该海峡。
And while more oil is getting out, freedom of navigation in Hormuz has not been restored, McNally said. Tehran continues to insist that it controls the strait.
根据英国海上贸易行动中心的一份事件报告，伊朗革命卫队周一拦截了一艘穿越海峡的油轮，并命令该船掉头，否则将面临袭击。船遵守了。
Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Monday hailed down a tanker transiting the strait and ordered the ship to turn around or face attack, according to an incident report from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The vessel complied.
“石油市场并没有变得更加安全，”米德说。“它在持续不安全的情况下运营变得更加高效。"
"The oil market is not becoming more secure," Meade said. "It is becoming more efficient at operating under sustained insecurity."