查尔斯·戈里万、格兰特·史密斯和亚历克斯·朗利报道。主要石油高管警告称，随着伊朗战争进入第八个月，世界应对其影响的权宜之计即将耗尽。
By Charles Gorrivan, Grant Smith and Alex Longley Leading oil executives warned that the world is running out of stopgaps to manage the impact of the Iran war as the conflict extends into an eighth month.
自2月以来，战争扰乱了通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运，该海峡是关键的咽喉要道，正常情况下承载全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气。尽管如此，基准原油期货的涨幅非常有限，周二布伦特原油交易价格低于每桶100美元。
Since February, the war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas in normal times. Despite that, gains in benchmark crude futures have been remarkably limited, with Brent oil trading below $100 a barrel on Tuesday.
部分原因是生产者和消费者几乎动用了所有可用的手段来适应减少的流量。这包括广泛的需求减少、世界其他地区供应增加以及战略石油储备的大量释放。最近几周，通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮过境量也急剧增加。
That’s in part because producers and consumers have pulled virtually every lever available to adjust to the diminished flows. That includes widespread reductions in demand, higher supplies from other parts of the world and large releases from strategic petroleum reserves. In recent weeks, there has also been a sharp increase in tanker transits through Hormuz.
在伦敦举行的能源情报论坛上，几位高管对这些变通措施的长期有效性发出警告。
Several senior executives at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London warned about the long-term effectiveness of those workarounds.
壳牌公司首席执行官瓦埃尔·萨万表示：“这些减震器能承受的限度是有限的。我们或许已经缓和了危机的最严重影响，但只能持续这么久，否则就会出现进一步的中断。”尽管市场的缓冲已经变薄，但此前也有过类似的警告。在冲突初期，市场观察人士警告说，破坏的规模意味着供应将在几周内耗尽。
“There’s a limit to how much those shock absorbers can continue to take,” said Wael Sawan, chief executive officer of Shell Plc. “We have maybe softened the worst impact of the crisis, but there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging.”Though the market’s buffers have been thinned, there have been similar warnings before. In the early days of the conflict, market watchers cautioned that the scale of the disruption meant that it would be barely weeks before supplies ran out.
这些变通措施最终意味着那种情况从未在大范围内出现，尽管世界上一些较贫穷国家的需求和供应受到了打击。
The workarounds ultimately meant that never materialized on a widespread basis, though there have been hits to demand and supply in some of the world’s poorer nations.
据与会高管称，目前通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油数量正接近战前水平，但每天流量受损意味着仍需在其他维多集团首席执行官拉塞尔·哈迪（Russell Hardy）表示：“我们需要大约1000万、1200万、1400万桶石油通过航线运出，以便在冬天期间保持平衡。”“因为西方已经没有更多的库存可供消耗了。”石油市场的大部分压力仅限于两个特定行业：精炼燃料和航运。
Now, volumes of crude transiting Hormuz are approaching pre-war levels, according to executives at the conference, but each day flows are impaired means there are still solutions that need to be found elsewhere. “We need about 10, 12, 14 million barrels to come out via the shipping route in order to keep things in balance as we go through the winter,” said Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group. “Because there aren’t any more inventories to drain in the West.”Much of the pressure in oil markets is confined to two specific sectors: refined fuels and shipping.
上周，一些国家宣布了一项新计划，将向全球市场释放1亿桶石油，以缓解价格压力。此前，今年早些时候宣布释放4亿桶石油。
Last week, a group of nations announced a fresh plan to release 100 million barrels of oil onto the global market to tame price pressures. That comes after the release of 400 million barrels was announced earlier this year.
尽管如此，这意味着未来几个月全球库存将继续减少，特别是柴油等精炼燃料，这些燃料最近几周仍然异常紧张。
Still, it means global stockpiles will continue to dwindle in the coming months, particularly refined fuels like diesel that have remained exceptionally tight in recent weeks.
沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔表示：“虽然原油紧缩严重，但成品燃料价格上涨幅度甚至更大。”“紧急储备可能会为我们带来一个冬天。他们无法解决长期供应问题。”
“While the squeeze on crude is serious, refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said. “Emergency reserves may buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply.”