距离巴西总统大选中 runoff 还有三周的时间，总统卢伊兹·伊纳西奥·路拉·达席尔瓦发现自己处于比他——或大多数民意调查专家——预期更为弱势的境地。
With three weeks to go until Brazil’s presidential runoff, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva finds himself in a weaker position than he — or most pollsters — had expected.
第二轮投票曾被广泛预测。但最近的民意调查显示，路拉将以第一名的身份进入 runoff，领先对手参议员弗拉维奥·波索纳罗约3个百分点。
A second round of voting was widely predicted. But most recent polls had Lula entering a runoff from first place, putting him about three percentage points ahead of rival Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
然而，波索纳罗在周日获得了约47%的选票，路拉获得45%，这一逆转令分析人士感到意外，并引发了关于竞选最后几天发生了什么，以及民意调查可能遗漏了什么的问题。
Instead, Bolsonaro took about 47 percent of the vote on Sunday to Lula’s 45 percent, a reversal that surprised analysts and raised questions about what happened in the final days of the campaign, and what the polls may have missed.
在竞选的最后几天发生了什么变化？巴西瓜图里奥·瓦尔加斯基金会的政治学家卡尔斯·佩雷拉认为，部分答案在于一些原本计划支持较小的右翼候选人的选民在最后时刻发生了转变。
What changed in the final days Carlos Pereira, a political scientist at the Getulio Vargas Foundation think-tank in Brazil, believes part of the answer lies in a late shift among voters who had planned to support smaller right-wing candidates.
波索纳罗本人曾表示，他正寄希望于这一点。在选举日告诉记者时，他表示，他期望从那些原本可能支持其他候选人但在反对路拉方面保持一致的选民那里获得“抗议性投票”。
Bolsonaro himself had said he was banking on exactly that, telling reporters on election day that he expected a “protest vote” from people who might have otherwise backed another candidate but were united in their opposition to Lula.
“通常情况下，选民在第一轮投票时会投票真情实意，而在第二轮时会进行战略性投票，”佩雷拉告诉《半岛电视台》。
“Usually, voters, they vote [sincerely] in the first round, and they vote strategically in the second round,” Pereira told Al Jazeera.
他说，这一次，有些原本计划为像戈亚斯州前州长罗纳尔多·凯多和右翼“自由巴西运动”创始人兼商人雷南·桑托斯这样的候选人投票的选民，似乎提前做出了战略性选择。
This time, he said, some voters who were planning to cast their ballot for candidates like the former governor of the central state of Goias, Ronaldo Caiado, and businessman and founder of the right-wing Free Brazil Movement, Renan Santos, appear to have made the strategic choice earlier.
“他们想，‘让我们试着现在就解决这场选举，’”佩雷拉说。“如果你在第二轮中无论如何都会投票给弗拉维奥，为什么不直接现在就投票呢？”这种提前的整合也可能在 runoff 中发挥作用。政治分析师拉斐尔·法热蒂告诉路透社社会科学院通讯社，表示，波索纳罗通常只会在第二轮获得的一些支持已经“提前到位”，这可能会让他在扩大联盟时有更少的空间。
“They thought, ‘Let’s try to resolve this election right now,’” Pereira said. “If you’re gonna vote for Flavio anyway in the second round, why not vote for him right now?”That early consolidation could also matter in the runoff. Political analyst Rafael Favetti told Reuters news agency that some of the support Bolsonaro would have usually picked up only in a second round had already been “front-loaded,” potentially leaving him less room to expand his coalition.
另一个因素是，佩雷拉表示，马斯特尔银行丑闻——一桩蔓延的涉及银行欺诈的丑闻——在最后几周震动了双方的竞选活动，牵连到政治 spectrum 各个层面的人物。
Another factor, Pereira said, was the Banco Master scandal a sprawling alleged banking fraud that rattled both campaigns in the final weeks, touching figures across the political spectrum.
其中包括最高法院法官亚历桑德雷·德·莫拉斯，他审理了将前总统希尔瓦·波索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）父亲入狱的案件。莫拉斯被指控与马斯特尔银行业主达尼埃尔·沃卡罗有不当关系，此后有文件出现，似乎显示该银行家向他寻求法律建议。莫拉斯否认了这些指控。
Among them was Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case that sent Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, to prison. De Moraes was accused of improper ties to Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro after documents emerged appearing to show the banker seeking legal advice from him. De Moraes has denied the allegations.
佩雷拉认为，这种联系可能成为一些选民的晚期“触发因素”。波索纳罗的支持者一直视莫拉斯为卢拉的政治盟友，今年早些时候，弗拉维奥在竞选活动中直接将两人联系起来，说：“投票给卢拉的人就是在为亚历桑德雷·德·莫拉斯投票。”一项9月份的Datafolba民调显示，34%的巴西人将马斯特尔银行丑闻更多地与左派联系起来，相比之下，27%的百分比将其更多地与右派联系起来。
Pereira believes that connection may have acted as a late “trigger” for some voters. Bolsonaro’s supporters have seen Moraes as a political ally of Lula, with Flavio making a direct link between the two on the campaign trail earlier this year, saying, “Anyone voting for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes.”A September Datafolha poll found 34 percent of Brazilians associated the Banco Master scandal more with the left, compared with 27 percent who associated it more with the right.
路亚州立大学历史与国际研究教授、《卢拉：人民的总统》及《为巴西的未来而斗争》的作者安德烈·帕利亚里尼也同意这桩丑闻可能伤害了总统。他说，一场以“壮观且持续不断的丑闻”为主导的竞选活动，涉及似乎整个政治阶层，这对波索纳罗作为“反制制度的叛逆者”发挥了优势。
Andre Pagliarini, a professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University and author of Lula: A People’s President and the Fight for Brazil’s Future, agreed the scandal may have hurt the president. A campaign dominated by “spectacular, unceasing scandal involving seemingly the entire political class”, he said, played to Bolsonaro’s strengths as an “anti-institutional insurgent”.
“当然，讽刺的是，弗拉维奥本人在马斯特尔银行丑闻中被直接牵连，其中卢拉并未被卷入其中，”他在接受采访时说。年轻的波索纳罗因涉嫌向沃卡罗寻求资金用于为父拍摄电影的事儿正在接受调查。他否认了不当行为。更为广泛的右转没有一位分析人士将这次结果视为民调的彻底失败。
“The irony, of course, is that Flavio himself was directly implicated in the Banco Master scandal in a way that Lula is not,” he said in an The younger Bolsonaro is under investigation over allegations that he sought money from Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. He denies wrongdoing. A broader shift to the right Neither analyst saw the result as a wholesale failure of the polls.
对于帕利亚里尼来说，更令人惊讶的是右派获得的支持规模，远远超出了总统选举的范围。
For Pagliarini, the bigger surprise was the scale of support for the right, which extended well beyond the presidential race.
博尔索纳罗在2022年第一轮选举中的得票率比他父亲高出近四个百分点，而他的自由党则成为巴西参议院最大的集团。右翼在州长竞选中也表现强劲，并在该国东南部取得了重大进展。
Bolsonaro won nearly four percentage points more than his father did in the first round in 2022, while his Liberal Party emerged with the largest bloc in Brazil’s Senate. The right also came out strong in gubernatorial races and made significant gains in the southeast of the country.
帕利亚里尼说：“弗拉维奥周围显然有一个强大的信息环境，这使得他的竞选团队能够在选民面前传达自己的信息，即使主流媒体曝光了一系列丑闻。”“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是民意调查低估了已经右倾选民的承诺。”但结果也指出了卢拉和巴西左翼面临的更深层次的挑战：许多选民认为政府的行动不够，特别是在经济和公共安全方面。
“There clearly was a powerful information environment around Flavio that allowed his campaign to keep its message in front of voters even as the mainstream press exposed scandal after scandal,” said Pagliarini. “If anything, the polls underestimated the commitment of voters already leaning right.”But the results also point to a deeper challenge for Lula and the Brazilian left: a sense among many voters that the government is not delivering enough, particularly on the economy and public security.
纸面上，卢拉可以指出一些积极的经济指标，例如创历史新低的失业率、不平等现象下降和通胀缓解。但这并不一定意味着生活变得越来越容易，因为巴西人继续感受到高食品价格和家庭债务的挤压。
On paper, Lula can point to a number of positive economic indicators, like record-low unemployment, falling inequality and easing inflation. But that hasn’t necessarily translated into a sense that life is getting easier, as Brazilians have continued to feel squeezed by high food prices and household debt.
9月份的一项民意调查发现，近一半的受访者认为经济比前一年变得更糟，而只有19%的人认为经济有所改善。
A September Quaest poll found nearly half of those surveyed believed the economy had gotten worse over the previous year, compared with just 19 percent who thought it had improved.
帕格里亚里尼说：“选民们可以承认，贫困人口减少了，失业率也很低，但他们仍然感到过度劳累、负债累累、不安全，并厌倦了政治冲突。”“右翼已经找到了如何将这些挫折感转化为一种非常明确的政治认同。”卢拉的一场艰苦的战斗现在有三个星期的时间来缩小大约220万张选票的差距。还有数百万人可能会被抢走。
“Voters can acknowledge that poverty is down and unemployment is low and still feel overworked, indebted, unsafe and fed up with political conflict,” Pagliarini said. “The right has figured out how to turn those frustrations into a very clear political identity.”An uphill battle for Lula Lula now has three weeks to close a gap of about 2.2 million votes. And there are millions potentially up for grabs.
在第一轮中，约有900万张选票投给了其他候选人，而超过3340万巴西人没有投票--28%的选民投票。“这是可能的，但算术很困难，”帕利亚里尼说。
About nine million votes went to other candidates in the first round, while more than 33.4 million Brazilians didn’t vote – 28 percent ofed voters. “It’s possible, but the arithmetic is tough,” Pagliarini said.
卢拉要扭转局面，他需要赢得支持少数候选人的选民，接触一些弃权的选民，并在东北部找到更多支持，东北部已经是他最强大的地区。
For Lula to turn things around, he’d need to win voters who backed minor candidates, reach some of those who abstained and find more support in the northeast, which is already his strongest region.
他的竞选团队正在准备一支新的沟通团队。帕利亚里尼表示，他将关注辩论，卢拉可以直接针对博尔索纳罗而不是针对他的品牌提出理由。
His campaign is preparing a new communications team. Pargliarini said he’ll be watching the debates, where Lula could make a case directly against Bolsonaro rather than against his brand.
“可能性很大，但卢拉仍然是一位非常强大的沟通者，”他说。“本轮对弗拉维奥的努力是他唯一的希望。”
“The odds are steep, but Lula remains an extremely powerful communicator,” he said. “Going hard at Flavio in this round is his only hope.”