圣保罗——本周巴西大选中右翼势力的强势崛起,有望为目前总统选情领先的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗提供筹码:他不仅能解救身陷囹圄的父亲、前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗,还能赦免那些参与了类似“1月6日事件”的袭击首都行动的追随者,甚至能够弹劾那些试图追究其责任的最高法院大法官。
SÃO PAULO — A right-wing surge in Brazil’s elections this week could give presidential front-runner Flávio Bolsonaro the leverage not only to free his imprisoned father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, but also to pardon supporters convicted in a Jan. 6-style assault on the capital and impeach the Supreme Court justices who have sought to hold them accountable.
分析人士、民意调查专家及预测市场均指出,作为参议员的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在周日举行的首轮投票中得票率超出预期、位居第一,因此极有可能在10月25日的第二轮投票中胜出。他将与获得第二名的左翼总统卢拉展开对决,争夺这个拉丁美洲最大民主国家的领导权。
After outperforming polls to finish first in Sunday’s opening round, Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator, is the favorite in the runoff Oct. 25, analysts, pollsters and prediction markets say. He is challenging left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who came in second, to lead Latin America’s largest democracy.
博索纳罗将父亲在2022年大选中败给卢拉,以及因企图发动军事政变以继续掌权而被判刑一事视为不公,还将此次大选描绘成复仇的良机。他承诺将为正在服刑27年的父亲及其支持者实施大赦。
Bolsonaro has portrayed his father’s 2022 defeat to Lula and conviction for attempting a military coup to stay in power as an injustice — and cast the election as an opportunity for revenge. He has promised amnesty for his father, now serving 27 years in prison, and for his supporters.
如果成功当选,周日各州及国会选举中右翼候选人出人意料地大获全胜也将助力他的计划。其所属政党将获得81个参议院席位中的28个,创下三十多年来的最高纪录;在众议院的513个席位中也将占据121个,这一数字为1985年巴西结束军事独裁统治以来最高水平。
If elected, his efforts will be boosted by the unexpected success of right-wing candidates in state and congressional races on Sunday. His party will hold 28 of the 81 Senate seats, its largest caucus in more than three decades, and 121 of the 513 seats in the House of Deputies, the most since the end of Brazil’s military dictatorship in 1985.
由于中右翼及右翼盟友同样赢得了大量席位,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗有望组建一个规模足以单方面修改宪法的联盟,从而历史上首次实现对最高法院大法官的弹劾。
With center-right and right-wing allies also winning seats, he could build a coalition large enough to unilaterally amend the constitution and, for the first time in the country’s history, impeach justices.
“弗拉维奥从未在自己拟推行的政策议程上误导过选民,”Quaest民意调查机构的负责人、政治学家费利佩·努内斯说道,“一旦当选,他将拥有足以推动这些举措的国会基础。极右翼势力将得以推行比以往更为全面的施政纲领。”博索纳罗本人也作过类似表态。
“Flávio has never misled voters about the agenda he intends to pursue,” said political scientist Felipe Nunes, director of the Quaest polling institute. “If elected, he will have a congressional base that will allow him to take these steps. The far right will be able to implement a much more sweeping platform than before.”Bolsonaro has said as much.
“巴西已经让我拥有了一个比现在右得多的国会,”他周二在戈亚尼亚竞选时说道。“这样我们就能修改宪法,重新实现这个国家的民主,让各机构再次尊重宪法。”雅伊尔·博索纳罗当时远没有如今这般有影响力。2019年他上任时,其政党仅有4名参议员和52名众议员。由于拒绝与在立法机构中至关重要的中右翼政党进行谈判,他难以推进自己的议程。
“Brazil has already given me a Congress that is much further to the right than it is today,” he said Tuesday while campaigning in Goiânia. “So that we can change the constitution, so that we can redemocratize this country, so that institutions once again respect the constitution.”Jair Bolsonaro never enjoyed anywhere near as much clout. When he took office in 2019, his party had four senators and 52 deputies. Refusing to negotiate with the center-right parties whose support is essential in the legislature, he struggled to advance his agenda.
罗德里戈·马亚在雅伊尔·博索纳罗总统任期初期担任众议院议长,他表示,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗将比他的父亲拥有更大的权力,因为他的政党将在国会中占据更多席位,而且他更愿意与其他政党进行谈判。
Rodrigo Maia, who was speaker of the House at the start of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, said Flávio Bolsonaro would enjoy more power than his father because his party will hold more seats in Congress and because he is more willing to negotiate with other parties.
“如果弗拉维奥想要推行一个复仇式的政府,他就必须与这些政党妥协,”马亚在接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时说。“如果他不能给予他们具有重要政治价值的职位,就没人会支持这种复仇。”
“If Flávio wants to run a government of revenge, he has to accommodate those parties,” Maia told The Washington Post. “Nobody is going to vote for revenge if he doesn’t give them positions of significant political value.”
卢拉曾警告选民,不要将权力重新交还给博索纳罗家族。在周六的一场竞选集会上,他将这次选举描述为“民主与主权”与“野蛮与腐败”之间的选择。博索纳罗家族仍在沿用其盟友兼朋友——总统唐纳德·特朗普的策略。
Lula has warned voters against giving back power to the Bolsonaros. At a campaign rally on Saturday, he framed the election as a choice between “democracy and sovereignty” and “barbarism and corruption.”The Bolsonaros continue to follow the playbook of their ally and friend, President Donald Trump.
与特朗普一样,雅伊尔·博索纳罗错误地将自己连任失败归咎于选举舞弊,随后目睹支持者袭击、占领并破坏总统府、国会和最高法院。
Jair Bolsonaro, like Trump, blamed the failure of his reelection bid falsely on fraud, then watched as supporters assaulted, occupied and vandalized the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court.
与特朗普一样,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗将这些支持者描绘成爱国者,并承诺会赦免他们。他宣称起诉其父亲的人都是腐败分子,并誓言利用总统权力惩罚他们。
Flávio Bolsonaro, like Trump, has cast those supporters as patriots and promised to pardon them. He has declared those who prosecuted his father corrupt and pledged to use the powers of the presidency to punish them.
博索纳罗多次呼吁弹劾负责起诉其父亲的亚历山大·德·莫赖斯大法官及其他人。
Bolsonaro has called repeatedly for the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw his father’s prosecution, and others.
重塑最高法院已成为他最清晰的项目之一,旨在结清过去的账并防止未来的挑战。 巴西总统博索纳罗本人正面临腐败调查,此前他向一名被控在多十亿美元诈骗案中作案的监禁银行家索取数百万美元。
Reshaping the Supreme Court has become one of his clearest projects, aimed at settling past scores and preventing future challenges. Bolsonaro is under investigation himself over allegations of corruption after he sought millions of dollars from a jailed banker accused in a multibillion-dollar fraud.
右翼候选人否认有任何不当行为,银行家丹尼埃尔·沃卡罗的律师表示他们不会评论。
The right-wing candidate denies wrongdoing, and lawyers for banker Daniel Vorcaro have said they will not comment.
博索纳罗在任总统期间任命了两名大法官。 考虑到空缺和退休情况,他的儿子可能会任命四名大法官。 有一席之位已经空缺了一年。 参议院拒绝了卢拉的提名,这是132年来首次此类拒绝。 另外三名大法官将在2030年前达到75岁的强制退休年龄。
Jair Bolsonaro appointed two justices during his presidency. Given vacancies and retirements, his son could appoint four. One seat has been vacant for a year. The Senate rejected Lula’s nominee, the first such rejection in 132 years. Three other justices reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 by 2030.
在接下来的三周里,博索纳罗和卢拉将竞逐约900万在第一轮投票中支持其他候选人的巴西人,以及约3300万没有出席投票的人。
Over the next three weeks, Bolsonaro and Lula will compete for the roughly 9 million Brazilians who voted for other candidates in the first round, and the roughly 33 million who stayed home.
在这个因持续高涨的物价和日益增长的家庭债务而感到沮丧的国家中,博索纳罗把自己塑造为变革的候选人。 卢拉表示,他没有得到应有的赞誉——对于巴西的经济增长和失业率下降。 他提醒选民注意腐败调查。 他说,弗拉维奥·博索纳罗有一个“黑暗的传记”。
In a country frustrated by stubbornly high prices and growing household debt, Bolsonaro has cast himself as the candidate of change. Lula, who says he has not received proper credit for Brazil’s economic growth or declining unemployment, is reminding voters of the corruption investigation. Flávio Bolsonaro, he said, has a “dark biography.”
“弗拉维奥是目前的热门人选,”努德斯说。 “但卢拉仍有机会吸引那些在2022年首次支持他、如今感到失望并选择不投票的选民。”
“Flávio is the favorite today,” Nunes said. “But there is still room for Lula to reach out to voters who backed him for the first time in 2022, are now frustrated and chose not to vote.”