几年前，由于抵押贷款利率处于历史低位，许多美国人得以实现拥有自己房子的梦想。如今，这一梦想却愈发难以实现。截至10月8日这一周，30年期固定利率平均值达到了7.4%，这对首次购房者和想要换房的房主来说都构成了巨大挑战。房价、水电费以及其他与购房相关的开支也都在不断上涨。CNBC与SurveyMonkey联合开展的季度调查显示，约三分之一的租房者希望拥有自己的房子，但由于经济负担过重，他们觉得这根本不可能实现。
A few years ago, Americans were able to check off their goal of becoming homeowners thanks to historically low mortgage rates. It's harder to achieve that dream these days. The average 30-year fixed rate was at 7.4% for the week ending October 8, making it challenging for both newcomers and homeowners looking to move. Home prices, utilities, and other homeownership-related costs have increased. A CNBC/SurveyMonkey quarterly survey found that about a third of renters want to own a home but don't think that will ever be possible due to affordability.
诸多因素共同导致了购房难度加大。你认为自己永远都买不起房吗？或者你想卖房却因受低利率抵押贷款的约束而无法行动？欢迎通过mhoff@businessinsider.com与本记者联系，分享你的住房状况。亚特兰大联邦储备银行会追踪购房所需的家庭收入水平。该银行将“合格收入”定义为：用于支付购房相关费用（包括本金与利息、房产税、房屋保险、10%的首付金以及私人房贷保险）的金额不超过家庭总收入的30%。
Multiple factors are making it tough to purchase a place. Do you think you'll never be able to buy a home? Do you want to sell your home, but can't because you are locked into a low mortgage rate? Reach out to this reporter to share your housing situation at mhoff@businessinsider.com. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tracks the household income required for homeownership. The bank defines "qualified income" to be no more than 30% of income spent on costs, including principal and interest payments, property taxes, property insurance, a 10% down payment, and private mortgage insurance.
这一“合格收入”水平——即在不造成经济负担的前提下能够负担得起购房费用所需的收入——自2021年起便开始高于实际的中位收入水平，截至7月份，这一数值约为实际中位收入的1.5倍。亚特兰大联储监管与规制部门的多米尼克·珀万斯指出：“从历史上看，只要收入达到或低于中位水平，人们依然有能力购房。但如今，这种情况已不太可能出现了。”"
That qualified income — what you need to actually afford a home without breaking the bank — darted away from actual median income in 2021 and remains elevated, at about 1.5 times the actual median income as of July. "Our country, historically, if you made the median income or you made below the median income, you could still be a homebuyer," said Domonic Purviance of the Atlanta Fed's Supervision and Regulation Division. "Well, that's less likely today.
很可能的情况是，拥有住房主要只是高收入家庭的选择，这纯粹是基于负担能力的现状。" "如果房价保持不变、利率保持不变，而你只调整收入，那么收入需要增加46%才能让住房变得负担得起，" Purviance表示，并补充说，导致差距扩大的主要因素是过去几个月抵押贷款利率的飙升。考虑到自负担能力追踪器最近的7月估算以来利率已上升，Purviance表示，差距很可能已经扩大。
What's likely to be the case is owning a home is primarily an option for higher-income households just based on where affordability is." "If home prices are held constant and interest rates are held constant, and the only thing you adjusted was incomes, then incomes would have to increase by 46% in order to make housing affordable," Purviance said, adding that the main factor behind the widening is the jump in mortgage rates over the past few months. Given how rates have climbed since the affordability tracker's most recent July estimate, Purviance said it's likely the gap has increased.
平均30年期固定抵押贷款利率已升至2023年以来的最高水平。Purviance表示，有些房地产市场，如奥斯汀，房价已有所回落，但幅度不足以在"住房负担能力图景"上造成"显著凹陷"。他说，人们不应指望等到房价回到疫情前水平再买房，因为这不太可能发生。"真正能创造更大负担能力的，至少是自然市场力量层面的，只有利率调整至低于其长期平均水平，"他说。
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to its highest level since 2023. Purviance said there are some housing markets, like in Austin, where home prices have softened, but not enough to make "a significant dent in the housing affordability picture." He said people shouldn't think they'll buy when prices return to pre-pandemic levels, because that's unlikely to happen. "Really, the only thing that can really create greater affordability, at least natural market forces, is if you see interest rates adjust below their longer-term average," he said.
如果出现这种情况，锁定在较低利率的人可能更愿意出售房产，Purviance表示这可能会给价格带来一些下行压力。尽管如此，人们仍在购房；新建独栋住宅销售从7月到8月有所增加，尽管二手房销售下降了。Redfin首席经济学家Daryl Fairweather表示，想买房的人可能会发现一些交易机会，因为现有房主变得更加急于出售。
People who have been locked into lower rates may be more willing to sell their home if that were the case, which Purviance said could create some downward pressure on prices. Still, people are buying; new single-family house sales increased from July to August, although existing home sales fell. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, said people looking to buy might be able to find some deals as existing homeowners become more desperate to sell.
Redfin的数据显示，8月降价的活跃挂牌占比接近20%的系列高位，尽管平均降价幅度较2012年数据开始时的6.2%有所下降，为4.1%。
Redfin's data showed the share of active listings with a price drop in August was near the series high of 20%, although the average size of the drop is down from its level at the start of the data in 2012 — 4.1% versus 6.2%.
“在大量新建房屋的市场中，建筑商尤其渴望达成交易，因此会降价并提供优惠，例如降低抵押贷款利率或在交易完成时提供现金补贴，”Fairweather说道。“所以，住房负担能力仍然是一个巨大的问题，但买家在这个市场中至少能以稍好的条件购房。”
"Markets where there's a lot of new construction, builders are especially eager to make deals and lower their prices and offer concessions like mortgage rate buydowns or cash at closing," Fairweather said. "So affordability is still a huge problem, but there are ways that buyers are getting at least a slightly better deal in this market."