新加坡：总理黄循财周三（9月30日）表示，价格管制短期内可能有利于消费者，但长期来看，供应商生产或投资的动力可能会减弱。
SINGAPORE: Price controls may benefit consumers at first, but suppliers may have less incentive to produce or invest over time, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said on Wednesday (Sep 30).
他在经济师服务处成立25周年晚宴上表示，人为压低价格的短期效果看似很有吸引力，但相关成本往往要到后来才会显现。
Speaking at the Economist Service's 25th anniversary dinner, he said the immediate effects of holding prices artificially low can look attractive, but the costs often emerge only later.
“供应将无法满足需求，短缺将会出现，原有问题也会变得更难解决。”他补充说，并举租金管制抑制租赁住房供应、食品价格上限导致短缺为例。
“Supply will fall short of demand, shortages will emerge and the original problem becomes even harder to solve,” he added, citing rent controls that discourage the supply of rental units and food price caps that lead to shortages.
黄循财还表示，成本也会以其他方式显现——财政负担可能不断累积，投资可能转向其他地区，人们也会寻找规避规则的办法。他同时也是财政部长。
Costs can also surface in other ways – fiscal burdens can accumulate, investments can move elsewhere and people find ways around the rules, said Mr Wong, who is also the finance minister.
他补充说，新加坡政府在许多领域进行干预，以纠正市场失灵、分散风险并实现“重要目标”。“但恰恰因为政府会进行干预，我们就必须正确地进行干预。
The Singapore government intervenes in many areas to correct market failures, pool risks and achieve “important objectives”, he added. “But precisely because government intervenes, we need to intervene correctly.
“我们必须准确诊断问题，理解我们所造成的激励效应，认识其中的成本和权衡，并深入思考二阶和三阶后果。”他说。黄循财表示，坚持这一原则是经济师服务处最重要的职责之一。
“We have to diagnose the problem well, understand the incentives we are creating, recognise the costs and trade-offs, and think through the second- and third-order consequences,” he said. Mr Wong said maintaining this discipline is one of the most important responsibilities of the Economist Service.
总部设在贸工部的经济师服务处由公共部门的经济学家组成，负责开展经济研究与分析，为政策制定提供支持。
The Economist Service, headquartered at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, comprises public-sector economists who conduct economic research and analysis to support policymaking.
工人党此前曾呼吁政府通过减轻包括租金在内的成本压力，“间接”支持中小企业。
The Workers’ Party has previously called on the government to support small- and medium-sized enterprises “indirectly” by easing cost pressures, including rents.
今年8月，议会就反对党提出的新加坡经济增长动议进行辩论时，工人党议员林子文提议将年度租金涨幅上限设定在历史平均水平约3%。他说，这将为企业留出时间，以适应固定成本的上涨。
During a parliamentary debate in August on a motion on Singapore’s economic growth tabled by the opposition party, its Member of Parliament Jamus Lim proposed capping annual rent increases around the historical average of 3 per cent. He said this would give businesses time to adjust to increases in fixed costs.
“这只是对涨幅的限制，而非对租金水平的限制。从长远来看，市场租金仍将占据主导地位，”他当时说道，并指出许多国家都有类似的限制措施。他认为，即使仅将这一措施限制在政府或机构房东范围内，也将是向前迈出的重要一步。对“简单解决方案”的压力黄循财先生表示，新加坡也无法免受寻求“简单解决方案”的压力，在充满不确定性的全球环境和即将到来的技术颠覆背景下，这种压力在未来几年将会增加。
“This is a limit on the rate, not the level. Market rents will still prevail in the long run,” he said at the time, noting that many countries have similar restrictions. He argued that even limiting this measure to government or agency landlords would be a major step forward. PRESSURE FOR "EASY SOLUTIONS" Singapore is not immune to pressures for "easy solutions" and this pressure will grow in the coming years amid an uncertain global environment and looming technological disruption, said Mr Wong.
他说，经济学家经常讨论“创造性破坏”，即旧事物如何被新事物取代，以及这对创新和增长为何至关重要。
Economists often discuss “creative destruction”, or how old activities give way to new ones, and how it is essential for innovation and growth, he said.
“对于整个经济而言确实如此。但对于那些工作岗位被取代和摧毁的个体劳动者来说，这种颠覆绝非抽象的概念。他们所承受的代价是直接且切身的。”
“That is true for the economy as a whole. But for the individual worker whose job is being displaced and destroyed, there is nothing abstract about the disruption. The costs are immediate and personal.”
“当生计受到影响，人们对未来感到焦虑时，他们寻求政府提供解决方案是可以理解的。”黄先生表示，政府必须回应这些关切，帮助那些受变革负面影响的人，确保增长的红利得到共享。
“And when livelihoods are affected and people feel anxious about their future, it is understandable that they will look to the government for solutions.”The government must respond to these concerns and help those adversely affected by change, ensuring that the benefits of growth are shared, said Mr Wong.
“但我们也必须清醒地认识到什么行得通，什么行不通，”他补充道。
“But we also have to be clear-eyed about what works and what does not,” he added.
他指出，仅有良好的意愿并不能制定出好的政策，而将一切交给市场也不是答案，因为市场可能会失灵。他补充说，新加坡还关心其他市场无法单独提供的、至关重要的事物。
Good intentions alone do not make good policies, and leaving everything to the market is also not the answer because markets can fail, he said, adding that Singapore cares about other important things that markets alone cannot provide.
黄先生是2001年经济服务署正式成立时团队中的五位经济学家之一，他感谢该署多年来的工作。
Mr Wong was one of the five economists on the team when the Economist Service was formally established in 2001, and he thanked the service for its work over the years.
他敦促经济学家在政府各部门的决策中保持严谨，并利用当今更先进的工具提供辅助。
He urged economists to uphold discipline in policymaking across government agencies, aided by the more advanced tools available today.
“我们试图解决什么问题？权衡取舍是什么？我们正在创造什么样的激励机制？接下来可能会发生什么，包括我们未曾预料到的后果？”他问道。
“What problem are we trying to solve? What are the trade-offs? What incentives are we creating? And what might happen next, including the consequences we did not intend?” he asked.
黄先生表示，做好这一点需要判断力和知识诚实。“当分析指向一个令人不安的结论时，需要有专业信念敢于直言。”
Doing this well takes judgment and intellectual honesty, said Mr Wong. “It takes the professional conviction to speak up when the analysis points to an uncomfortable conclusion.”