两个月内，北京对经济形势的判断发生了显著变化。7月，国务院拒绝了出台刺激措施的呼吁，倾向于“充分有效用好现有政策”。周一，李强总理主持召开国务院常务会议，承认出现新问题，并承诺“加强宏观政策逆周期调节”。这一转向值得欢迎。但刺激措施如何实施、由谁实施，与其规模一样重要。
In two months, Beijing’s reading of the economy has changed markedly. In July, the State Council brushed aside calls for stimulus, preferring to make “full and effective use of existing policies”. On Monday, a cabinet meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang acknowledged emerging problems and pledged to “intensify countercyclical adjustment of macro policies”. The shift is welcome. But how the stimulus is delivered, and by whom, matters as much as its size.
紧迫性的理由显而易见。二季度经济增长放缓至4.3%，为近四年来最弱增速，使北京面临5%左右年度增长目标下限的压力。8月社会消费品零售总额仅增长0.4%。前八个月房地产开发投资下降19.9%，侵蚀了中产阶级财富的主要储备，随之而来的是消费信心的丧失。
The case for urgency is plain. Growth slowed to 4.3 per cent in the second quarter, the weakest pace in almost four years, leaving Beijing staring at the floor of its 4.5 to 5 per cent target. Retail sales rose a mere 0.4 per cent in August. Property investment fell 19.9 per cent in the first eight months, eroding the principal store of middle-class wealth and, with it, the confidence to spend.
出口仍是亮点，8月激增25%。然而，这种强势本身正是北京转向的部分原因。去年欧盟对华货物贸易逆差达约3600亿欧元（约合4050亿美元），布鲁塞尔设定10月截止日期要求见到“实质性”成果，并储备了新的贸易防御工具。其他贸易伙伴也在筑起自己的壁垒。因此，扩大内需不仅是周期性修正，更是应对可能不以北京意愿为转移的贸易战的缓冲垫。
Exports remain the bright spot, surging 25 per cent in August. Yet that strength is itself part of the reason Beijing is changing gears. The European Union’s goods deficit with China reached about €360 billion (US$405 billion) last year, and Brussels has set an October deadline for “tangible” results, with new trade defence instruments held in reserve. Other trading partners are raising barriers of their own. Building domestic demand is therefore not merely a cyclical fix but a buffer against a trade war that may come regardless of Beijing’s wishes.
这里的政治局势变得棘手。中央委员会第五次全体会议将于10月26日至29日召开，全国党代会则将于明年秋天举行。维持增长固然重要，但强化党的纪律仍是压倒性的优先事项。这里的纪律不仅指反腐败，还延伸至不负责任和浪费性的支出与投资。这种担忧合情合理，但也带来了后果。长期以来，地方投资一直是国内需求的主要引擎，而变得谨慎和规避风险的官员们并不急于重振它。许多地方仍专注于削减债务，既缺乏资金，也缺乏花钱的政治意愿。
Here the politics becomes tricky. The Central Committee’s fifth plenum meets from October 26 to October 29, and the national party congress follows next autumn. Sustaining growth matters, but strengthening party discipline remains the overriding priority. Discipline in this sense extends beyond corruption to irresponsible and wasteful spending and investment. That concern is legitimate, but it carries consequences too. Local investment was long a principal engine of domestic demand, and officials who have grown cautious and risk-averse are in no hurry to revive it. Many localities remain focused on paring debt and lack both the capital and the political will to spend.
周一的会议部分旨在“松绑”，措施包括加快发债和动用未使用的地方债务限额。短期内，地方行为发生根本性转变的可能性不大。
Monday’s meeting was partly an effort to loosen the leash, with faster bond issuance and the tapping of unused local debt quotas. A fundamental shift in local behaviour is unlikely in the short run.
因此，刺激政策——近年来这已成为政府投资的代名词——将主要依赖中央政府。北京正在加快推进“六大网络”基础设施建设——水网、电网、算力、新一代通信、城市地下管廊和物流——资金主要由中央承担。但鉴于已建成大量铁路、港口和机场，其对居民需求的短期拉动效果尚不确定。
Stimulus, which in recent years has become shorthand for government investment, will therefore rest largely on the central government. Beijing is expediting its “six networks” infrastructure programme – water networks, power grids, computing, next-generation communications, urban underground pipelines and logistics – to be funded mainly from the centre. But with so many railways, ports and airports already built, its short-term effect on household demand is uncertain.
居民最需要的是稳定的房地产市场以及不断增长的收入和就业，这在周一的声明中显著出现，而在7月的声明中却未提及。为此，私营部门至关重要。
What households need most is a stable property market and rising income and employment, which notably featured in Monday’s statement but not in July’s. For that, the private sector is crucial.
私营企业提供了超过80%的城镇就业岗位，且受政治日程的约束较小——当前的政治日程似乎将纪律置于增长之上。北京应给予它们更大空间：进一步放宽监管、公平获得信贷和市场准入、及时偿还地方政府拖欠的款项，以及为财产和企业家提供坚实的法律保护。
Private firms account for more than 80 per cent of urban jobs, and they are less bound by a political calendar that now appears to rank discipline above growth. Beijing should give them more room: further regulatory relaxation, fair access to credit and markets, prompt settlement of arrears owed by local governments, and firm legal protection for property and entrepreneurs.
与此同时，要求中国建立社会安全网的老生常谈已显过时。覆盖范围以空前速度扩大：基本医疗保险覆盖约95%的人口，养老保险参保人数超过十亿。挑战不再在于广度，而在于人口老龄化背景下的可持续性；去年底，60岁及以上居民占比达23%。
Meanwhile, the familiar call for China to build a social safety net is dated. Coverage has expanded at unprecedented speed: basic medical insurance reaches about 95 per cent of the population, and pension enrolment exceeds a billion people. The challenge is no longer breadth but sustainability as the population ages; 23 per cent of residents were aged 60 or above at the end of last year.
兑现这一承诺最终需要彻底的税制改革，这是一项复杂且政治敏感的工程。有迹象显示相关工作已在推进，但信息稀缺。这是中国经济中最不为人所理解的方面之一，更高的透明度将让市场和家庭都更加安心。
Funding that promise will ultimately require thorough tax reform, a complicated and politically sensitive undertaking. There are signs that work is under way, but information is scarce. It is among the least understood aspects of China’s economy, and greater transparency would reassure markets and households alike.
北京在2024年9月展示了其在关键时刻能果断行动。现在应确保纪律与主动性相匹配，并将民营部门视为复苏的全面合作伙伴。南华早报社论
Beijing showed in September 2024 that it can act decisively when the moment demands. It should now ensure that discipline is met by initiative, and that the private sector is treated as a full partner in recovery.