多年来，巴基斯坦一直支持阿富汗的塔利班。但如今，巴基斯坦却开始轰炸其邻国。昔日的盟友如何沦为对手？谈判又为何屡屡失败？
For years, Pakistan supported the Taliban in Afghanistan. But now Pakistan is bombing its neighbor. How the former allies became adversaries and why negotiations keep failing.
2026年9月，巴基斯坦空袭科斯特后，塔利班安全部队。周四晚间，巴基斯坦袭击了阿富汗境内的多个目标，但此次袭击的具体结果存在争议。控制着阿富汗的伊斯兰原教旨主义民族主义运动——塔利班称，袭击造成9至10名平民死亡，其中包括妇女和儿童。但巴基斯坦则声称，此次空袭击毙了22名武装分子，并摧毁了武器和弹药库。
Taliban security forces after a Pakistani airstrike in Khost, September 2026 On Thursday night, Pakistan attacked targets in Afghanistan The results of that attack are disputed. The Taliban, the Islamic fundamentalist nationalist movement that controls Afghanistan, says that between nine and 10 civilians were killed, including women and children. But Pakistan claims the strike killed 22 militants and destroyed weapons and ammunition depots.
10月初的这些袭击，只是两国冲突再度升级的最新表现。此前数月相对平静之后，冲突于9月中旬重新爆发。
These early October attacks are just the latest escalation in a conflict between the two countries that reignited mid-September, after months of comparative calm.
冲突的再次爆发，源于一连串针对巴基斯坦安全部队的袭击。9月18日，西北部城市科哈特的一处警察营地遭到袭击，造成31人死亡，超过100人受伤。隶属于巴基斯坦塔利班的一个分裂组织——即“巴基斯坦塔利班运动”（TTP）——宣称对科哈特这起袭击负责。该袭击发生在与阿富汗接壤的开伯尔-普什图省。
The conflict was sparked again after a series of attacks Pakistani security forces On September 18, an attack on a police compound in the northwestern city of Kohat resulted in the d eaths of 31 people and more than 100 injured. A splinter group belonging to the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, claimed responsibility for the attack in Kohat, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, bordering Afghanistan.
巴基斯坦指责阿富汗为TTP提供了避风港。阿富汗予以否认，但边境冲突随后爆发，巴基斯坦也随即发动了空袭。
Pakistan accused Afghanistan of providing the TTP with a safe haven. Afghanistan denies this but clashes at the border and then airstrikes by Pakistan followed.
2026年9月，巴基斯坦安全官员在边境城镇科哈特检查一座被袭击摧毁的清真寺。TTP与塔利班：复杂的关系。巴基斯坦的TTP与阿富汗的塔利班并非同一组织。尽管TTP与阿富汗塔利班在意识形态和人员上存在密切联系，但它是一个独立组织，专门与巴基斯坦政府对抗。
Pakistani security officials inspect a mosque destroyed in an attack in the border town of Kohat, September 2026 TTP and Taliban: A complex relationship The TTP in Pakistan is not the same as Afghanistan's Taliban. Although it does have close ideological and personnel ties to the Afghan Taliban, it is an independent organization that fights the Pakistani state.
在该国长期反抗国际部队和美国军队的叛乱期间，其许多武装分子都站在了塔利班一边。正因如此，在塔利班于2021年重新掌权后，塔利班下属的恐怖组织（TTP）获得了更大的活动空间和更强的影响力。这也意味着，阿富汗——巴基斯坦曾经的盟友——正日益成为其邻国的威胁。
Many of its fighters sided with the Taliban during that country's long-running insurgency against international and US troops. This is why, after the Taliban returned to power in 2021, the TTP gained more room and more leverage. This has meant that Afghanistan — a former ally of Pakistan — has increasingly become a threat to its neighbor.
巴基斯坦已要求塔利班采取行动打击TTP，但两者之间密切的关系使这一要求难以实现。
Pakistan has asked the Taliban to take action against the TTP, but the close connection between the two make this difficult.
“由于这些个人联系和关系网络，阿富汗塔利班要与之割裂开来极其困难，”波恩国际冲突研究中心（BICC）主任康拉德·谢特表示。
"Because of these personal connections and networks, it is extremely difficult for the Afghan Taliban to break away," says Conrad Schetter, director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, or BICC.
塔利班统治五年如何改变了阿富汗 要观看此视频，以及……这些联系并不意味着塔利班对TTP有任何控制力。两者之间确实存在历史渊源，但谢特认为，这并不等同于某种强大而直接的影响力。
How 5 years of Taliban rule have changed Afghanistan To view this video , and The connections don't mean that the Taliban has any control over the TTP. There are certainly historical connections between the two, but Schetter doesn't believe that equals any sort of strong, direct influence.
“塔利班根本不愿意听从伊斯兰堡的命令，”阿富汗分析家网络（一个在喀布尔和柏林之间运作的智库）联合主管托马斯·鲁蒂格补充道。“他们不会允许任何外部势力干涉。”这意味着巴基斯坦通过支持塔利班以在阿富汗获得影响力的政策并未奏效。
"The Taliban are simply not prepared to take orders from Islamabad," adds Thomas Ruttig, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, a think tank working between Kabul and Berlin. "They won't let anyone outside interfere." This means the Pakistani policy of supporting the Taliban in order to gain influence in Afghanistan hasn't worked.
棘手的边界问题 此外，还有一场历史更悠久的冲突对当前局势产生了影响。这涉及所谓的杜兰德线，该线由一名英国外交官和一名阿富汗埃米尔于1893年划定，用以界定英属印度与阿富汗之间的势力范围。
Difficult borders There's also another older conflict that has an impact on the current situation. This involves what is known as the Durand Line, drawn in 1893 by a British diplomat and an Afghan emir to mark spheres of influence between British India and Afghanistan.
阿富汗与巴基斯坦目前的边界沿杜兰德线划分，同时也分割了两侧的一个地区——普什图人的家园。普什图人是阿富汗最大的民族群体，也是巴基斯坦第二大民族群体。因此，这里的边界争端不仅关乎领土，更关乎身份认同。
The current border between Afghanistan and Pakistan follows the Durand Line and also divides an area on both sides, homeland to Pashtuns, who make up the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and second largest in Pakistan. So the border dispute here isn't just about territory, it's also about identity.
“民族主义和民族认同因素在冲突中扮演了重要角色，”舍特告诉德国之声。许多普什图人至今仍拒绝接受杜兰德线所划定的边界。
"Ethnic and nationalist elements play a significant role in the conflict," Schetter tells DW. Many Pashtuns still refuse to accept the border that the Durand Line created.
在巴基斯坦，该国与印度长期存在的竞争关系也起到了一定作用。一个友好的阿富汗本应有利于巴基斯坦。但印度也加强了与塔利班的联系。
In Pakistan, the country's long-running rivalry with India also plays a part. A friendly Afghanistan would have been advantageous for Pakistan. But India has also strengthened its ties to the Taliban.
英国智库查塔姆学院的一份分析指出：“尽管伊斯兰堡过去曾将阿富汗视为其与印度竞争中的‘战略纵深’来源，但现在却越来越将其西北邻国视为一种负担。”
"While Islamabad once viewed Afghanistan as a source of 'strategic depth' in its rivalry with India, it now increasingly views its north-western neighbor as a liability," an analysis by British think tank Chatham House notes.
然而，巴基斯坦仍对阿富汗施加着压力。作为一个内陆国家，阿富汗依赖通过邻国的贸易路线，尤其是巴基斯坦。尽管塔利班政权正试图减少对巴基斯坦的依赖，并寻找新的经济和政治伙伴，巴基斯坦仍可通过关闭边境和限制贸易来施加压力。
Pakistan exerts pressure Pakistan still has power over Afghanistan, though. As a landlocked country, Afghanistan relies on trade routes through neighboring countries, and Pakistan in particular. Pakistan can use border closures and trade restrictions to exert pressure even as the Taliban regime is trying to reduce dependence on Pakistan and find new economic and political partners.
2026年4月，一名塔利班士兵在巴基斯坦边境操作高射炮。如今，贸易与安全考量正交织在一起。巴基斯坦曾与塔利班调解下与塔利班下属组织“塔利班武装组织”（TTP）举行会谈，并达成了停火协议。巴基斯坦与阿富汗之间也进行了对话。但这些临时协议并未解决一个关键问题：如何防止来自阿富汗领土对巴基斯坦的袭击。
A Taliban soldier with an anti-aircraft gun on the border with Pakistan in April 2026 Trade and security considerations are now becoming tangled. Pakistan has held talks with the TTP that were mediated by the Taliban and ceasefires were agreed upon Talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan also took place. But none of the temporary agreements resolved the crucial question of how to prevent attacks on Pakistan from Afghan territory.
因此，在外交努力的同时，巴基斯坦也采取了经济和政治压力手段，例如关闭边境、限制贸易以及将阿富汗难民遣返阿富汗。
So in parallel with diplomacy, Pakistan has also been relying on economic and political pressure, for example, by closing borders and restricting trade and by sending Afghan refugees back into Afghanistan.
美国外交关系委员会的一份分析指出，塔利班担心，如果他们对TTP采取过于严厉的镇压措施，可能会将该组织推向另一个极端武装组织——呼罗珊省伊斯兰国（IS-K）。该组织反对塔利班。
alysis by the US-based Council on Foreign Relations notes that the Taliban are worried that if they crack down on the TTP too hard, they will drive the group towards another extremist militant group, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province or IS-K. This group opposes the Taliban.
冲突最近已升级到新的层面。9月底，喀布尔报告称有28名从巴基斯坦努里斯坦省潜入阿富汗的武装分子被击毙，另有32人被俘。塔利班指责巴基斯坦支持其武装反对派，但巴基斯坦予以否认。
The conflict recently escalated to another level. At the end of September, Kabul reported 28 killed and 32 captured fighters who had infiltrated Afghanistan from Nuristan province, Pakistan. The Taliban accused Pakistan of supporting its armed opponents, something Pakistan has denied.
“过去几十年间，巴基斯坦一直定期支持阿富汗境内的武装组织——例如苏联占领时期的穆贾希丁，以及后来的塔利班，”鲁蒂格指出。“但新的情况是，巴基斯坦显然还支持当前反塔利班武装反对派的部分力量。”局势显著升级 这使得围绕TTP的争端演变成一场更广泛的冲突，双方都互相指责对方支持来自对方领土的武装组织。
"It is known from past decades that Pakistan has regularly supported armed groups on the Afghan side — for example, the Mujahideen during the Soviet occupation and later the Taliban," Ruttig points out. "What's new though is that Pakistan apparently also supports parts of today's armed anti-Taliban opposition." Significant escalation This is turning the dispute over the TTP into a larger conflict in which both sides accuse each other of supporting armed groups from the other's territory.
英国智库查塔姆学院表示，与以往的边境小规模冲突相比，此次局势出现了显著升级。令人担忧的是，围绕武装组织和边境事件的冲突正在演变为两个主权国家之间的直接对抗。
British think tank Chatham House speaks of a significant escalation compared to previous border skirmishes. Worryingly, a conflict over armed groups and border incidents is turning into a direct confrontation between the two nation states.
鲁蒂格认为，如果双方重返谈判，就有可能遏制不断升级的暴力冲突。
Ruttig believes that it would be possible to contain the spiraling violence if both sides return to negotiations.
“如果双方都愿意回到谈判桌前——或许在国际调停下——那么就有办法控制冲突，最重要的是保护双方的平民人口，”他主张道。
"If both sides were willing to return to the negotiating table — perhaps with international mediation —there would be ways to contain the conflict and, above all, to protect the civilian population on both sides," he argues.
武装分子在巴基斯坦杀害数十名安全人员 9月底，巴基斯坦周刊《周五时报》发表评论文章，巴基斯坦分析人士萨基布·阿里·汗提出多项可能缓解紧张局势的建议。其中包括在伊斯兰堡和喀布尔之间建立可靠的沟通渠道、对武装组织采取区别对待，以及加强边境地区民众的参与。
Militants kill dozens of security officers in Pakistan In a late September commentary in Pakistani weekly magazine The Friday Times Pakistani analyst Saqib Ali Khan advocates for several things that could ease the tensions. That includes a reliable channel between Islamabad and Kabul, a separate approach for armed groups and greater involvement of the population along the border.
他认为，这场冲突不仅仅是两个政府之间的争端，更是一场涉及安全、边境、经济和区域问题的冲突。“沿着这一思路，双方都需要转变视角，”舍特总结道。
The conflict, he argues, is not merely a dispute between two governments but also a security, border, economic and regional conflict. "Along those lines, there would have to be a shift in perspective on both sides," Schetter concludes.
他补充说，从长远来看，还需要加强经济一体化，这样巴基斯坦和阿富汗就不会仅仅从安全和权力问题来定义彼此的关系。
In the long term, greater economic integration is also needed, he adds, so that Pakistan and Afghanistan do not define their relationship solely through security and power issues.