很少有人，甚至可以说没有人，能像查理·库克那样长期且深入地追踪美国大选。自1984年创办以他名字命名的政治通讯以来，库克和他那支杰出的非党派分析师团队深入剖析了数以千计的竞选——总统、国会、州长——追踪资金流向、考察候选人、观察他们的广告，并以颗粒级的精度分析竞选形势。
There are few people, if any, who've tracked U.S. elections for longer or in greater depth than Charlie Cook. Ever since 1984, when he started his eponymous political newsletter, Cook and his stellar crew of nonpartisan analysts have plumbed many thousands of races — for president, Congress, governor — following the money, sussing out the candidates, watching their ads and assaying the campaign landscape at a granular level.
库克称这次中期选举是他见过的最奇怪的一次。本应是一场相当正常的中期选举——现任总统执政半途，不满的选民倾泻不满，执政党大概率遭遇挫折——但库克表示，这有可能演变成共和党的灾难。
Cook calls this midterm election the strangest he's ever seen. What appeared to be a fairly normal election for a president halfway through his term — a probable setback, as unhappy voters their discontent — has the potential, Cook said, to turn into a disaster for Republicans.
执政党在中期选举中大败并不罕见。2018年特朗普总统任内的上一次中期选举中，民主党赢得了41个众议院席位。库克指出，不寻常的是，共和党在本选举季初拥有如此多优势的情况下，民主党却有望大获全胜。（这还没算上应特朗普之命，共和党开启的疯狂选区划分行动。）11月参议院改选席位中，约三分之二位于特朗普2024年赢下的州。
Big losses aren't rare for the party in the White House. Democrats picked up 41 House seats in President Trump's last midterm election, in 2018. What's unusual, Cook suggested, is the prospect of big Democratic gains when Republicans started out this election season with so many advantages. (And that was before the GOP set off on a gerrymandering jag at Trump's behest.) Roughly two-thirds of the Senate seats up in November are in states Trump carried in 2024.
七个胶着州中的五个是特朗普获胜的州，其中几个州的领先优势达到两位数。众议院方面，共和党仅以极微弱优势维持控制权，这意味着民主党缺乏容易拿下的“软柿子”选区。正如库克敏锐指出的：“一个政党不可能失去他们原本就没有的席位。”
Five of the seven toss-up races are in states Trump won, several by double digits. On the House side, Republicans maintain control by an exceedingly narrow margin, meaning there aren't a lot of low-hanging districts for Democrats to aim for. As Cook rightly noted, "A party cannot lose a seat they don't have."
但特朗普下滑的支持率、一场不得人心的战争、持续的通胀以及总统的自我陶醉，让一些本应是共和党囊中之物的席位陷入险境，其中包括阿拉斯加、佛罗里达、爱荷华、俄亥俄甚至德克萨斯等共和党铁票仓的竞选。“我不是气象学家，但这有点像三个竞争性天气锋面相撞，”库克说。“一个是伊朗局势导致汽油、柴油价格飙升……”接下来是贸易、关税、整体非能源生活成本，以及关税对农户的影响。
But Trump's deteriorating approval rating, an unpopular war, persistent inflation and the president's egotistical indulgences have jeopardized a number of GOP-held seats that normally would be automatic wins, including contests in such Republican strongholds as Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and even Texas. "I'm not a meteorologist, but it's kind of like three competing weather fronts collided," Cook said. "One was Iran and gasoline, diesel prices going sky high ... Then there's trade, tariffs, overall non-energy cost of living, tariff impact on farmers.
第三类则有点像包罗万象，其中包括舞厅、反射水池、拱门、疫苗以及削减医疗补助等项目。”我们稍后再谈预测。（亲爱的读者，请稍耐心。）首先，请听 Nathan Gonzales 介绍情况。他是另一位长期从事选举形势研判的专家，追踪全国政治竞选已超过25年，并编辑、出版无党派竞选指南《Inside Elections》，该刊前身为《Rothenberg Political Report》。
And then the third is kind of the catch-all and it's everything from ballrooms, reflecting pools, arches, vaccines, Medicaid cuts." We'll get to predictions in a moment. (Patience, dear reader.) First, let's hear from Nathan Gonzales, another longtime election handicapper. He's been tracking political contests nationwide for more than 25 years and edits and publishes Inside Elections — formerly the Rothenberg Political Report — another nonpartisan field guide to campaigns.
和 Cook 一样，他提供的是清醒、不带个人情绪的分析，而不是党派一厢情愿的猜测或政治包装。Gonzales 同样认为，共和党正面临不祥的前景。特朗普的表现——他的支持率正逼近历史低点——“激发了民主党人的热情，打消了独立选民的积极性，也催生了一批无动于衷的共和党人，”Gonzales 说，“这些正是民主党迎来大好年份、甚至取得卓越成绩的要素。”
Like Cook, he traffics in clear-eyed, dispassionate analysis, not partisan wish-casting or political spin. Gonzales, too, sees a bad moon rising for Republicans. Trump's performance — his approval rating is flirting with record lows — "has inspired Democrats, turned off independents and created a group of apathetic Republicans," Gonzales said, "and those are the ingredients for a good or great Democratic year."
他指出，民主党无需掀起一股政治浪潮就能夺回众议院控制权。只要多拿下3个席位，就足以改变众议院的力量对比，这也将是连续第七次在中期选举中由一个或另一个议院改换执政党归属。（需要说明的是，对于“浪潮选举”并没有权威定义，但人们普遍认为，这一说法是指某个政党在众议院和参议院赢得大量且优势悬殊的席位的选举。）
He noted Democrats don't need a big wave to seize control of the House. A pickup of just three seats would flip the House, marking the seventh straight midterm election in which one chamber or the other changed partisan hands. (For the record, there is no authoritative definition of a wave election, though it's generally agreed the term applies to an election in which one party or the other gains a large and lopsided number of House and Senate seats.)
Gonzales 说，如今越来越有2006年的感觉。“当时，我们拥有一位不受欢迎的共和党总统，中东战争推高了汽油价格，国会山还有一些行为恶劣的议员，”Gonzales 回忆道。“我记得事后和共和党人交谈时，他们承认，虽然他们掌握着关于民主党候选人的大量扎实资料，在筹款方面也占据优势，但选民根本不买账。
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2006, Gonzales said. "We had an unpopular Republican president, a war in the Middle East that drove up gas prices. Some members on Capitol Hill that were behaving badly," Gonzales recalled. "I remember talking to Republicans after the fact and they admitted that, while they thought they had great research on Democratic candidates and they had a fundraising advantage, voters just didn't care.
选民根本无心听他们谈论民主党，因为他们对现状以及国家前进的方向深感不满。”在那场选举中，时值乔治·W·布什总统第二任期过半，民主党在参议院多赢六席，夺取了控制权，并在众议院净胜31席，使南希·佩洛西得以成为美国历史上首位女性众议院议长。布什称之为“一场惨败”。再看2026年，冈萨雷斯及其专家团队认为，共和党很可能将失去众议院控制权；他们预计民主党将增加7至15个席位，除非共和党遭遇溃败，损失大幅高于这一数字。
Voters weren't in the mood to listen to what they were saying about Democrats because they were so frustrated with what was going on with the status quo and the direction of the country." In that election, at the midpoint of President George W. Bush's second term, Democrats gained six seats to take control of the Senate and netted 31 in the House, allowing the installation of Nancy Pelosi as the first female speaker in history. "A thumpin'," Bush called it. So, 2026. Gonzales and his team of experts believe the House is most likely gone for Republicans, forecasting a Democratic gain of seven to 15 seats, unless the bottom falls out for the GOP and their losses climb much higher.
参议院方面，民主党需要多赢四席才能夺取控制权；冈萨雷斯认为，该院正处于刀锋般的微妙平衡之中，并预计民主党将增加三至五席。冈萨雷斯说：“现在要从根本上改变这场选举的走势，已经太晚了。但如果共和党能够提高选民的投票率，或许仍足以挽救参议院。”库克也同意，迈克·约翰逊担任众议院议长的日子可能已接近尾声。
In the Senate, where Democrats need to pick up four seats to take control, Gonzales sees the chamber teetering on a knife's edge, forecasting a Democratic gain of three to five seats. "It's too late to fundamentally change the trajectory of this election," Gonzales said. "But if Republicans can boost Republican turnout, it might be enough to save the Senate." For his part, Cook agrees that Mike Johnson may be nearing the end of his speakership.
库克说，对共和党而言，最理想的情况是将众议院损失控制在25席或以内，而这大致相当于过去半个多世纪中期选举的平均损失水平。库克说：“如果损失超过35席，就值得引起警惕了，因为以我们目前仅有的几个竞争激烈的选区，这种情况本不应发生。”至于参议院，他认为共和党最乐观的结果也只是净丢两席，仅能勉强维持对参议院的控制。
The best-case scenario for the GOP would be keeping its losses to 25 House seats or less, Cook said, which is right around the average for midterm elections going back well over half a century. "It starts getting into eyebrow-raising territory if it gets north of 35," Cook said, "because that shouldn't be possible with the few competitive districts we have now." As for the Senate, he suggested the best Republicans can hope for is a net loss of two seats, keeping the GOP barely in control. (A loss of three would mean a 50-50 split, leaving Vice President JD Vance poised to be the tiebreaker on close votes — and wouldn't he love having to drop off the 2028 campaign trail to be on hand, just in case.)
（若损失三席，参议院将出现50比50的平分，副总统JD·万斯将准备好在票数接近时投出决定性的一票——而且，他一定很乐意暂时离开2028年的竞选活动，专程到场以防万一。）当然，这场选举仍待举行，选票仍待投出，投票结果也仍有待统计。会是蓝色浪潮、海啸，还是一小洼淡蓝色的水？再过四个多星期我们就会知道了。
Of course, there's still an election to be held, votes to be cast and ballots to be counted. Blue wave, tsunami or a pale sapphire puddle? We'll know in a little more than four weeks.