乌克兰官员认为，俄罗斯上周对基辅电网的袭击标志着克里姆林宫发动了第一波攻势，旨在将乌克兰拖入开战近五年来最寒冷的冬天。《纽约时报》周五报道称，乌克兰能源部长德尼斯·什米加尔两周前向欧洲官员展示了相关文件。两位熟悉此次会谈的官员表示，什米加尔向他们展示了他所称的被截获的俄罗斯计划，该计划旨在摧毁乌克兰的能源电网。
Ukrainian officials believe that a Russian attack on Kyiv's power grid last week marks the Kremlin's opening salvo to plunge Ukraine into its coldest winter since the war began nearly five years ago. The New York Times reported Friday that the country's energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed European officials two weeks ago. Two officials familiar with the talks said that Shmyhal presented the officials with what he described as an intercepted Russian plan to collapse the country's energy grid.“Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, by this cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy sector,” Shmyhal told Ukrainian national news last week.
什米加尔上周在接受乌克兰国家新闻采访时说：“我们的伙伴和我们一样，被其冷酷无情所震惊，被这种如何摧毁我们能源部门的冷酷恐怖计算所震惊。”《纽约时报》查阅了该文件的副本，其中详细列出了一项针对乌克兰电力基础设施的战役，计划使用超过1000架无人机、炸弹和导弹。该战役的总体目标是切断乌克兰主要城市的电力、供暖和供水。
The NYT viewed a copy of the document, which details a campaign to target Ukrainian power infrastructure with over 1,000 drones, bombs, and missiles. The overall goal of the stated campaign is to cut off power, heat, and water in major Ukrainian cities.
俄罗斯计划在冬季攻势中袭击乌克兰主要城市该计划的第一阶段据称将摧毁乌克兰西部边境附近的变电站。第二阶段将干扰乌克兰水电站的服务。最后阶段将切断乌克兰四座核电站中三座的电力供应。该计划将基辅、哈尔科夫和敖德萨列为首要目标，并计划将上述城市的电力和供暖供应削减高达90%，同时严重破坏污水处理系统。
Russia plans to target Ukrainian major cities in winter assaultThe first stage of the plan would allegedly knock out power substations near Ukraine's western borders. The second stage would disrupt services at Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants. The final stage would knock out power to three of Ukraine's four nuclear power plants. The plan lists Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa as its top targets, and plans to cut electricity and heat supplies in the cities by up to 90%, as well as severely disrupt sewage treatment.
该计划还指出，据报道，克里姆林宫将袭击乌克兰三座核电站的电气开关场，这些开关场是该国电力基础设施的骨干。俄罗斯对乌克兰水利设施的袭击规模扩大该文件还指出，俄罗斯还将使用数十枚滑翔炸弹和弹道导弹袭击乌克兰的水利系统。
The plan also states that the Kremlin reportedly will attack the electric switchyards to Ukraine's three nuclear power plants, which act as the backbone of the country's power infrastructure. Russian attacks on Ukrainian water facilities increase in scaleThe document also states that Russia will target Ukraine's water system as well with dozens of glide bombs and ballistic missiles.
报告指出，乌克兰官员私下表达了担忧，如果该国的污水处理设施和泵站遭到袭击，他们将面临有限的备选方案。报告还指出，俄罗斯此前从未以如此规模袭击乌克兰水利设施。但乌克兰脆弱的电网刚刚开始从去年冬天恢复，据联合国人权办公室称，当时俄罗斯的袭击导致乌克兰至少17个地区断电。破坏极为严重，一些街区因附近发电厂被毁而失去了区域供暖。整个冬季数百万乌克兰人每天仅有几小时供电。
Ukrainian officials, the report noted, have expressed fears privately that they have limited backup options if the country's wastewater treatment facilities and pumping stations are attacked. The report noted that Russia has not attacked Ukrainian water facilities on such a scale before. But Ukraine's weakened power grid is just beginning to recover from last winter, when Russian attacks knocked out the power in at least 17 regions of Ukraine, according to the UN's Human Rights Office. Damage was so extensive that some neighborhoods were left without district heating because nearby power plants were destroyed. Millions of Ukrainians were left with only hours of electricity per day through the winter months.
什梅加尔在8月向议会发表讲话时显得乐观，认为乌克兰将能达到21吉瓦的可用发电容量，刚好超过去年冬天18吉瓦的峰值需求。
Shmyhal, for his part, seemed optimistic in an address to parliament in August that Ukraine would be able to reach 21 gigawatts of available capacity, just enough to surpass the peak demand of 18 gigawatts from last winter.
然而，俄罗斯的计划直白地表明，其目标是消除15吉瓦的发电容量，而这正是基辅截至8月底所拥有的容量。
However, the Russian plan bluntly stated that it aims to eliminate 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, which is what Kyiv had by the end of August.
《纽约时报》指出，无法核实什梅加尔向欧洲官员展示的文件。但这份文件出现在乌克兰官员关于今冬的反复警告以及俄罗斯总统普京关于摧毁该国电网野心的言论之后。
The NYT noted it could not verify the document Shmyhal presented to European officials. However, it comes after repeated warnings from Ukrainian officials about this winter as well as statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin about his ambitions to knock out the country's power grid.
普京周末表示，俄罗斯对黑海航运路线和俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭击给予了“镜像回应”，并声称后者是民用目标。
Putin said over the weekend that Russia gave Ukraine a “mirror-image response” to attacks on Black Sea shipping routes and Russian oil refineries, claiming that the latter was a civilian target.
乌克兰总统泽连斯基周六在接受路透社采访时似乎证实了《纽约时报》的报道。“我们看到了文件，我们知道这些文件允许他们袭击基础设施、后勤，特别是袭击城市、村庄，到处袭击，道路、学校、医院，”泽连斯基告诉路透社。
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to verify the NYT report in an interview with Reuters on Saturday." We saw documents , and we know that they allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics, and especially to attack in the cities, in the villages, everywhere, roads, schools, hospitals," Zelensky told Reuters.
“向民众施压，迫使他们离开首都，离开不同的城市：这就是此次行动的目标。”泽连斯基指出，乌军将对俄罗斯战术的转变作出回应，但强调乌克兰不会针对任何民用基础设施。“我们必须以任何方式（能够做到的）作出回应。他们攻击我们的能源设施，我们就必须攻击他们的能源设施。首先是炼油厂等：这些是什么为他们提供了这场战争的资金，”泽连斯基说。
"To pressure people to leave the capital, leave different cities: this is the goal of the operation." Zelensky noted that his army would respond to Russia's shift in tactics, but emphasized that Ukraine would not target any civilian infrastructure." We have to respond in any way (we can). With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners, etc.: what gives money to them for this war," Zelensky said.
“但我们当然不会像他们那样，针对任何民用目标作出回应。”乌克兰领导人多次向本国公民及国际官员发出警告，称俄罗斯打算在今年冬季针对该国的电网。泽连斯基在九月底的联合国大会上表示：“乌克兰人明白，这个冬天对我们来说可能非常严酷。但作为回应，我们别无选择，只能让俄罗斯也感到痛苦。”“正因如此，我们才说需要在冬季之前采取降级措施。”
"But we will not respond, of course, just like them, on any civilian objects." Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly warned citizens of the country as well as international officials that Russia intends to target the country's power grid this winter." Ukrainians understand that this winter could be very harsh for us. But in response, we will have no choice but to make it painful for Russia too," Zelensky told the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September." That's exactly why we say that de-escalation steps are needed before winter.”