汤姆·里斯：根据一项备受关注的调查，英国就业市场正处于自21世纪初以来最长的低迷期，不过这场持续两年的下滑已显现出一些缓解迹象。
Britain’s jobs market is stuck in its longest downturn since the early 2000s, according to a closely watched survey - though the two-year slump is showing some signs of easing.
标普全球的英国采购经理指数显示，雇主已连续第24个月缩减用工，这一持续时间超过了金融危机期间的纪录。
S&P Global’s UK purchasing managers’ index said employers cut back on staff for a 24th consecutive month, surpassing the length of decline during the financial crisis.
服务业裁员人数降至近一年最低水平，这表明市场已有一些改善迹象。此外，英国官方失业率仍远低于全球金融危机后的那段时期。
There were some signs of improvement as job cuts in the services sector were the smallest in almost a year. Furthermore, Britain’s official unemployment rate remains much lower than during the period after the GFC.
尽管能源冲击加剧，人工智能也可能抑制劳动力需求，但这些数据仍将令安迪·伯纳姆领导的政府在本月稍后的预算案公布前深感担忧。自工党政府于2024年重新执政后不久上调工资税和最低工资以来，雇主一直在裁员。
Still, the figures will be a concern for Andy Burnham’s government ahead of the budget later this month with the intensifying energy shock and artificial intelligence threatening to dampen demand for workers. Employers have been shedding staff since the Labour government raised payroll taxes and the minimum wage shortly after returning to power in 2024.
尽管整体经济在今年上半年表现强劲、大幅超预期，就业市场的低迷仍在持续。标普的调查显示，私营部门目前总体上抵御住了能源冲击；随着各行业竞相采用人工智能，消费支出增强和科技服务发展进一步推高了需求。
The jobs downturn has persisted despite the wider economy smashing expectations during a resilient first half of the year. S&P’s survey suggested that the private sector is largely holding up against the energy shock for now, with demand boosted by stronger consumer spending and technology services amid a rush to harness AI.
9月综合采购经理指数由上月的52.5回落至52，但仍高于区分经济扩张与收缩的50荣枯线。这一数据略好于初值估计的51.7。
The composite PMI eased to 52 in September from 52.5 the previous month, remaining above the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction. It was slightly better than the 51.7 reading in the flash estimate.
然而，自上月能源价格再度上涨以来，经济前景已蒙上阴影。这一变化促使交易员加大押注，预计英格兰银行将多次加息，以阻止通胀压力蔓延至整个经济。
However, the outlook has darkened since a resurgence in energy prices last month that has prompted traders to ramp up bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates several times to stop inflationary pressures spreading across the economy.
“需求疲软和通胀压力上升，导致人们对未来一年的商业活动预期减弱，”标普全球市场情报公司经济总监蒂姆·穆尔表示。“超出预期的商业需求似乎帮助遏制了近几个月以来的就业下滑。”该调查显示价格压力正在加剧。企业成本负担以及向客户收取的价格，都以自6月以来的最快速度上涨。
“Subdued demand conditions and rising inflationary pressures contributed to weaker business activity expectations for the year ahead,” said Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Greater-than-expected business requirements seem to have helped to stem the jobs downturn in recent months.”The survey pointed to price pressures growing. Firms’ cost burdens and the prices they charge customers both rose at the quickest pace since June.