工党上台以来的两年里，英国经济的增长速度已超过欧洲主要经济体。然而，这并未帮助到正在寻找工作的180万人。
The UK economy has outpaced its major European peers in the two years since Labour came to power. That’s not helping the 1.8 million people looking for work.
英国正陷入一种“无就业复苏”的困境：自2024年初以来，经济虽增长了2.5%，几乎是德国、法国和意大利增速的两倍，但却未能创造新任首相安迪·伯纳姆所期望的就业岗位。
Britain is stuck in a jobless recovery, with an economy that has grown 2.5% since early 2024 — almost double the pace of Germany, France and Italy — failing to generate the employment that new Prime Minister Andy Burnham needs.
事实上，根据税务数据，企业已削减了25万个工作岗位，其中仅今年就减少了9.5万个。长期失业人数已接近四年来的最高水平，青年失业率则已演变为全国性危机。从某项指标来看，英国正经历着自21世纪初以来持续时间最长的就业衰退。
In fact, firms have cut quarter of a million payrolls, 95,000 of them this year alone, according to tax data. Long-term unemployment is at a near four-year high and youth joblessness has spiraled into a national crisis. On one measure, Britain is in the longest jobs downturn since the early 2000s.
这些数据凸显了伯纳姆在本月预算案发布前所面临的挑战：能源冲击和人工智能的威胁，正冲击着一个仍因前任首相基尔·斯塔默执政期间劳动力成本上升而备受打击的就业市场。
The figures highlight the challenge facing Burnham ahead of his budget this month, with the energy shock and artificial intelligence threatening to hit a jobs market still reeling from the increases in employment costs under his predecessor Keir Starmer.
上周在工党大会上，伯纳姆承诺将打造一种“新经济”，让更具竞争力的企业创造就业岗位，并更广泛地分享繁荣。然而，面对艰难的形势，各公司选择通过提高生产力来应对——即以更少的人员完成更多的工作。
Speaking at the Labour conference last week, Burnham promised a “new economy” where stronger businesses create jobs and spread prosperity more widely. Companies, however, are choosing to navigate a difficult outlook by boosting productivity — doing more with fewer people.
根据彭博社对官方数据的分析，贡献经济增长最大的四大行业——信息技术、专业服务业、制造业和零售业——自12月以来已流失近12万个就业岗位。这些岗位的减少仅被公共部门或行政服务等生产力较低甚至萎缩的经济领域所吸纳的就业部分抵消。
The four biggest growth contributors - IT, professional services, manufacturing and retail — have shed almost 120,000 jobs since December, according to a Bloomberg analysis of official data. These declines were only partly offset by hiring in less productive, or even shrinking, parts of the economy like the public sector or administrative services.
英国企业正在改进管理方式，竞争力较弱的企业正在退出市场，而人工智能则在推动生产力提升。
British firms are improving their management practices, weaker businesses are dropping out and artificial intelligence is boosting productivity.
这一趋势在信息技术和通信行业尤为明显：该行业上半年增长了4.1%，但裁员幅度达1.4%，7月和8月的进一步裁员使今年总失业人数达到2.5万人。自2023年初以来，该行业的每位工人产出已增加了三分之一。
That pattern is especially visible in IT and communications, which grew 4.1% in the first half and axed 1.4% its payrolls with further cuts in July and August taking total job losses this year to 25,000. Output per worker in the sector is up by a third since early 2023.
麦肯锡公司高级顾问Tera Allas表示：“尽管人工智能的采用仍处于早期阶段，但企业似乎正在为未来的收益提前调整招聘计划。”
Although AI adoption is still in its early stages, “firms appear to be adjusting their hiring in anticipation of future gains,” said Tera Allas, senior adviser at McKinsey and Company.
OneHive公司首席执行官Rushab Shah警告称，企业目前仍将人工智能主要视为一种削减成本的工具。该公司致力于为青年技能培养和就业计划构建数字基础设施。他在9月伦敦国王学院组织的一场在线讨论中表示：“在英国，我们必须对这种思维模式保持高度警惕。”
Rushab Shah, chief executive officer at OneHive, a company that builds digital infrastructure for youth skills and employability programs, warned that businesses still see AI primarily as a tool to cut costs. “We’ve got to be really careful in the UK with the mindset,” he said, speaking on an online panel organized by King’s College London in September.
此类趋势对英国以及所有发达经济体而言都预示着不利前景。截至7月的三个月内，英国失业率维持在4.9%，接近疫情以来的最高水平。这一数据略高于美国和德国，但低于法国的8.2%、西班牙的10%和意大利的6.2%。
Such trends bode ill for Britain and advanced economies everywhere. Unemployment in the UK held at 4.9% in the three months through July, close to its highest level since the pandemic. That’s slightly above the US and Germany but below France’s 8.2%, Spain’s 10% and Italy’s 6.2%.
然而，青年失业率现已超过欧盟平均水平：5月至7月期间，16至24岁劳动年龄人口中，有16.4%的人处于失业状态。在所有失业者中，有26%的人失业时间已达12个月或更久。对于Burnham而言，这是一个令人担忧的数据，因为失业时间越长，找到工作就越困难。
However, youth unemployment has now overtaken the European Union average with 16.4% of active 16 to 24-year-olds out of work between May and July. Twenty-six percent of all unemployed had been jobless for 12 months or more, a worrying statistic for Burnham as finding employment is harder the longer a person is out of work.
英国并非唯一一个经济增长与就业脱节的国家。过去两年，美国经济扩张了近5%，但平均求职时间已超过六个月，这是2010年代中期以来（排除新冠疫情因素）的最长纪录。
Britain is not alone in its disconnect between growth and jobs. The US economy has expanded by almost 5% over the past two years, yet the average job search has stretched beyond six months, the longest since the mid-2010s outside of Covid.
危险在于，随着更多劳动者被边缘化，经济复苏可能会失去动力。英国预算责任办公室已经模拟了一种情景：人工智能对GDP没有影响，但由于所得税和增值税收入的减少，公共财政状况反而会更糟。
The danger is that the recovery runs out of steam as more workers are pushed to the sidelines. The Office for Budget Responsibility has already modeled a scenario in which AI has no impact on GDP, but leaves public finances in a worse state due to lost income tax and VAT revenues.
过去两年，企业一直在适应雇主更高的薪资成本、最低工资的大幅上涨，以及病假和非法解雇方面更严格的法规。其结果是，企业正转向投资，以自动化更多任务。
Businesses have spent the past two years adapting to higher employer payroll costs, large increases in the minimum wage and stricter rules around sick pay and unfair dismissal. The result is a shift toward investment as firms seek to automate more tasks.
第二季度，企业的资本支出比一年前高出5.2%，英格兰银行的代理人员报告称，9月份的投资意愿有所上升。波士顿咨询集团最近的一项调查显示，企业信心达到了四年来的高点，但仍有更多高管计划裁员而非扩招。
Firms’ capital spending was 5.2% higher in the second quarter than a year earlier and Bank of England agents reported an uptick in investment intentions in September. A recent BCG survey found business confidence at a four-year high, yet more bosses plan to shrink headcount than hire more.
“英国企业已经开始投资，而且他们喜欢这种方式，”摩根士丹利英国首席经济学家布鲁娜·斯卡里卡表示。“也许经济正在学会在资本略微增加、劳动力略微减少的情况下运行，而且这种情况将会持续下去。”
“UK businesses started to invest and they like it,” said Bruna Skarica, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley. “Maybe the economy is learning to live with slightly more capital and slightly less labor, and that will persist.”