唐纳德·特朗普总统站在联合国面前，向伊朗提出了一个选择：达成一项协议，允许该国重建，否则将面临伊斯兰共和国的毁灭。第二天，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安拒绝投降，同时为谈判敞开大门。
President Donald Trump stood before the United Nations and presented Iran with a choice: reach an agreement that would allow the country to rebuild or face the destruction of the Islamic Republic. The following day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rejected surrender while leaving the door open to negotiations.
战争已过去七个多月，华盛顿仍然没有回答自1979年以来一直困扰美国政策的问题：美国试图实现什么政治结果？军事力量将如何实现这一结果？
More than seven months into the war, Washington still has not answered the question that has dogged American policy since 1979: What political outcome is America trying to achieve, and how will military force bring it about?
1979年11月4日，伊朗武装分子占领了我们驻德黑兰的大使馆，我是一名在西德服役的陆军军官。52名美国人被囚禁了444天。这场危机引发了一种敌对关系，这种关系的持续时间超过了八位美国总统。
I was an Army officer serving in West Germany when Iranian militants seized our embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979. Fifty-two Americans endured 444 days of captivity. That crisis began a hostile relationship that has outlasted eight American presidents.
特朗普在伊朗打长期游戏时继续谈判美国一直缺席1988年4月，继塞缪尔·B号驱逐舰之后。罗伯茨击中了伊朗矿井，罗纳德·里根总统授权了祈祷螳螂行动。一天之内，美军击沉了两艘伊朗船只，并摧毁了两个监视平台。然而对抗仍在继续。
TRUMP KEEPS NEGOTIATING WHILE IRAN PLAYS THE LONG GAME AMERICA KEEPS MISSING In April 1988, after USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine, President Ronald Reagan authorized Operation Praying Mantis. In a single day, American forces sank two Iranian ships and wrecked two surveillance platforms. Yet the confrontation continued.
2015年核协议试图通过谈判限制和国际检查来限制德黑兰。特朗普于2018年退出该协议并恢复经济制裁。这两种方法都没有解决更广泛的对抗。
The 2015 nuclear agreement sought to constrain Tehran through negotiated restrictions and international inspections. Trump withdrew from that agreement in 2018 and restored economic sanctions. Neither approach settled the wider confrontation.
特朗普的伊朗战争现在归结为一个残酷的问题：接下来会发生什么？
TRUMP’S IRAN WAR NOW COMES DOWN TO ONE BRUTAL QUESTION: WHAT COMES NEXT?
特朗普走得更远。2025年6月，美国的空袭击中了三个关键的核设施。然后，2026年2月28日，美国和以色列发起了“史诗狂暴行动”，开始了当前的战争。最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊在第一天去世。
Trump went much further. American strikes in June 2025 hit three key nuclear facilities. Then, on Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, beginning the current war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on the first day.
正如特朗普在9月11日强调的那样，七个月后，伊朗遭受了广泛的军事损失。22联合国地址。但损害伊朗军队并不等同于实现竞选活动的政治目标。
Seven months later, Iran has sustained extensive military losses, as Trump emphasized in his Sept. 22 U.N. address. But damaging Iran’s forces is not the same as achieving the campaign’s political objectives.
如果特朗普想击败伊朗，他有三条道路可以定义胜利，但无一容易。作为一名退役陆军军官和前五角大楼战略家，我职业生涯的大部分时间都致力于研究军事行动与国家目标之间的关系。摧毁对手部队是一种军事成果，而胜利则是这些军事行动本应实现的政治结果。在伊朗问题上，这一区别的重要性再明显不过了。
TRUMP HAS 3 CHOICES TO DEFINE VICTORY IF HE WANTS TO BEAT IRAN. NONE OF THEM ARE EASY As a retired Army officer and former Pentagon strategist, I spent much of my career on the relationship between military operations and national objectives. Destroying an adversary’s forces is a military result. Victory is the political outcome those operations were meant to produce. Nowhere does that distinction matter more than in Iran.
如今，三个选项定义了特朗普的伊朗战争，而每个选项都伴随着代价。特朗普政府试图实现什么？战争部长皮特·赫格塞斯今年三月直言不讳地表示：“没有核武器，没有海军，并彻底摧毁他们的导弹计划和国防工业基础。”后来，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡也被加入这一清单。政府从未明确将政权更迭列为目标，但总统如今却谈论要摧毁伊斯兰共和国。
THREE CHOICES NOW DEFINE TRUMP'S IRAN WAR AND ALL OF THEM HAVE A COST What is the Trump administration trying to accomplish? Secretary of War Pete Hegseth put it bluntly in March: "no nukes, no navy, and a complete dismantling of their missile program and defense industrial base." Reopening the Strait of Hormuz joined the list later. The administration has never explicitly declared regime change a goal, yet the president now speaks of destroying the Islamic Republic.
这些是军事任务，而非政治最终目标，甚至核目标本身也出现过动摇。今年四月，特朗普谈到伊朗深埋的铀矿时表示：“我不在乎那些。”两周后，他又承诺：“我们会把它拿下来。”专家称，伊朗核协议的关键在于国际原子能机构能否进入长期被封锁的核武器设施。这一点至关重要，因为美国已经失去了了解伊朗核计划的最佳窗口。
Those are military tasks, not a political end state, and even the nuclear goal has wavered. In April, Trump said of Iran’s buried uranium, "I don’t care about that." Two weeks later he promised, "We’re going to take it." IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL HINGES ON IAEA ACCESS TO LONG-BLOCKED ATOMIC WEAPON SITES, EXPERTS SAY That matters because America has lost its best window into Iran’s program.
直到2月28日，国际原子能机构的检查员仍在伊朗境内开展工作，该机构也在追踪德黑兰储存大量浓缩铀的伊斯法罕隧道内的活动。伊朗曾禁止检查员进入2025年6月被炸毁的设施，但该机构此前仍能在伊朗境内进行监测。自战争爆发以来，检查员除了布什尔核电站外，无法访问任何核设施。
Until Feb. 28, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors were still working inside Iran, and the agency was tracking activity at the Isfahan tunnels where Tehran stored much of its enriched uranium. Iran had barred inspectors from the sites bombed in June 2025, but the agency still had eyes in the country. Since the war began, inspectors have been unable to visit any nuclear facility except the Bushehr power plant.
在2025年6月空袭之前，该机构估计伊朗持有440.9公斤（972磅）浓度为60%的浓缩铀，若进一步提纯，足以制造约10枚核武器。国际原子能机构无法核实这些材料如今的下落。9月9日，该机构理事会将伊朗提交联合国安理会。没有核查员，没人能确认轰炸取得了什么成果。战事持续六个月后，美国必须为伊朗政府倒台后的未来做准备除核问题外，政治目标更加模糊。华盛顿是想改变政权的行为，还是要终结政权本身？这是两场不同的战争。
Before the June 2025 strikes, the agency estimated Iran held 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%, enough for about 10 weapons if refined further. The IAEA cannot verify where that material is today. On September 9, the agency’s board referred Iran to the U.N. Security Council. Without inspectors, no one can confirm what the bombing achieved. AFTER 6 MONTHS OF WAR, US MUST PREPARE FOR A FUTURE AFTER IRAN’S GOVERNMENT FALLS Beyond the bomb, the political objective is murkier. Is Washington trying to change how the regime behaves, or to end the regime itself? Those are different wars.
改变政府行为需要明确的让步及核实手段。更换政府则需知晓此后由谁执政。伊拉克提供了教训：击败萨达姆·侯赛因的军队，远比建立持久的政治秩序容易得多。随着特朗普称德黑兰“想会谈”，伊朗政权更迭论调重燃伊斯兰共和国依然掌权。路透社4月报道称，革命卫队已收紧对军事战略和重大政治决策的控制。战争强化了最致力于延续战争的机构。
Changing a government’s conduct requires defined concessions and a means of verifying them. Replacing a government requires knowing who governs afterward. Iraq taught that lesson: defeating Saddam Hussein’s military proved far easier than establishing a durable political order. IRAN REGIME CHANGE TALK RESURFACES AS TRUMP SAYS TEHRAN 'WANTS TO MEET' AMID US STRIKES The Islamic Republic remains in power. Reuters reported in April that the Revolutionary Guards had tightened their grip on military strategy and major political decisions. The war has strengthened the institution most committed to continuing it.
时间站在德黑兰一边。伊朗领导层已为长期对抗做好准备，而美国总统依赖公众支持，但这种支持微乎其微。伊朗“误判”押注中期选举，三小时会谈后特朗普官员警告经历过冷战的美国人无需简报即知苏联威胁。数千枚核弹头瞄准美国城市。伊朗的威胁更难看清。政府先引用迫在眉睫的危险，随后多次更换理由。
Time favors Tehran. Iran’s leadership is prepared for a prolonged confrontation, while American presidents depend on public support, and that support is thin. IRAN ‘MISCALCULATING’ BY BETTING ON MIDTERMS AFTER 3-HOUR TALKS, TRUMP OFFICIALS WARN Americans who lived through the Cold War needed no briefing on the Soviet threat. Thousands of nuclear warheads were aimed at our cities. Iran’s threat is harder to see. The administration first cited an imminent danger, then shifted its rationale more than once.
6月路透社/益普索民调显示，仅24%的美国人认为这场战争值得其代价。7月，大多数人表示特朗普未能清晰阐明战争目标。
A June Reuters/Ipsos survey found that only 24% of Americans considered the war worth its costs. In July, most said Trump had not clearly explained its objectives.
美国人真正理解的是加油站的价格。4月份汽油价格自2022年以来首次突破每加仑4美元，目前AAA的全国平均价格约为4.43美元。霍尔木兹海峡有助于解释原因。该海峡的石油流量从去年年底的每天2160万桶下降到今年春天的490万桶。此后，原油出货量已反弹至接近战前水平，但汽油和柴油等精炼燃料的出货量仍远低于战前水平，这有助于推动燃料价格上涨。
What Americans do understand is the price at the pump. Gasoline topped $4 a gallon in April for the first time since 2022, and AAA’s national average is about $4.43 today. The Strait of Hormuz helps explain why. Oil flows through the strait fell from 21.6 million barrels per day late last year to 4.9 million this spring. Crude shipments have since rebounded to near prewar levels, but shipments of refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel remain far below their prewar volume, helping keep fuel prices elevated.
特朗普本人告诉联合国，他认为伊朗正在等待11月的中期选举结果，然后才能达成协议。九月29日，革命卫队发表了一封长达25页的公开信，敦促美国选民拒绝特朗普的政策。德黑兰正在美国后方工作。
Trump himself told the U.N. he believes Iran is waiting for the November midterm results before making a deal. On Sept. 29, the Revolutionary Guards issued a 25-page open letter urging American voters to reject Trump’s policies. Tehran is working the American home front.
重新的谈判暴露了差距。德黑兰提议重新开放霍尔木兹，以换取解除制裁和海军封锁，而华盛顿继续要求限制伊朗的核计划。之前的停火安排未能维持。任何持久的解决方案都将取决于核查，这将使检查人员回到中心。
Renewed negotiations have exposed the gaps. Tehran has proposed reopening Hormuz in exchange for relief from sanctions and the naval blockade, while Washington continues to demand restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. Previous ceasefire arrangements have failed to hold. Any durable settlement will depend on verification, which brings the inspectors back to the center.
单击此处了解更多福克斯新闻观点人质危机发生近半个世纪后，美国的军事能力发生了面目全非的变化。战略问题却没有。军事成功可以通过摧毁目标来衡量。一个持久的政治解决方案需要不同的会计。
Nearly half a century after the hostage crisis, America’s military capabilities have changed beyond recognition. The strategic question has not. Military success can be measured in destroyed targets. A durable political settlement requires a different accounting.
冷战一代经历了一场漫长而代价高昂的斗争，因为总统们用简单的语言解释了其中的利害关系。特朗普现在欠美国人同样的坦率谈话。他必须告诉他们在伊朗的胜利是什么样子的，为什么它值4美元以上的汽油。
The Cold War generation sustained a long and costly struggle because presidents explained the stakes in plain terms. Trump owes Americans the same plain talk now. He must tell them what victory in Iran looks like, and why it is worth $4+ gasoline.