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国会山报

赫格塞斯需要的是一个全新的“日光室计划”What Hegseth needs is a new ‘Project Solarium’

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上周,国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯宣布了六项重大国防举措,如果执行得当,可能会改变国防部对未来战场的预测和反应方式。前两个最相关。首先是创建一个新的四星自主作战司令部,该司令部将在国防创新部队的协助下建立和利用阿金库尔计划,该部队将“彻底改革美军购买、测试和使用无人机和其他尖端武器的方式”。

Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced six major defense initiatives that, if properly executed, could transform how the Department predicts and reacts to future battlefields. The first two are the most relevant. The first is creation of a new four star Autonomous Warfare Command, which will build on and exploit Project Agincourt, assisted by the Defense Innovative Unit that will “overhaul the way the U.S. military buys, tests and uses drones and other cutting-edge weapons.”

第二个被称为“子午线计划”,可能被证明更有想象力。在子午线,他委托亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)、帕尔默·拉基(Palmer Luckey)以及前众议院议长纽特·金里奇(Newt Gingrich)(佐治亚州共和党人)“研究未来的战场,确定作战人员需要利用哪些武器和技术才能在这些环境中占据主导地位,并提出可行的解决方案,在1月28日(即120天后)之前开始开发、测试和部署这些能力。”

The second, known as "Project Meridian," which may prove to be the more imaginative. In Meridian, he has tasked billionaires Elon Musk and Palmer Luckey and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to “study the battlefields of the future, identify which weapons and technologies warfighters will need to harness to dominate in these environments, and propose actionable solutions to start developing, testing and fielding these capabilities no later than Jan. 28, or 120 days from now.”

马斯克凭借其巨大成功的星联和特斯拉公司,是最著名的,也许是21世纪亨利·福特和约翰·D·D的组合。洛克菲勒。但马斯克在领导政府效率部(Department of Government Efficiency)方面的作用将大大削弱他的能力。政府效率部是一家旨在减少政府浪费的失败企业,它在五角大楼内部引发了强烈的负面反应。Luckey是Oculus视觉现实耳机的发明者,他于2017年创立了Anduril。

Musk, with his hugely successful Starlink and Tesla companies, is the best known and is perhaps the 21st century combination of a Henry Ford and John D. Rockefeller. But Musk will be greatly handicapped by his role in heading the Department of Government Efficiency — that failed enterprise aimed at cutting government waste — given the powerful negative reactions it provoked from within the Pentagon. Luckey, inventor of the Oculus visual reality headset, started Anduril in 2017.

Anduril是一家领先的技术公司,专注于为国防部提供的自主无人机和传感器,这些无人机和传感器在对伊朗的战争中被用于作战。Anduril刚刚与陆军签订了一份价值200亿美元的非竞争合同。金里奇1978年当选为众议院议员,拥有博士学位。在1995年成为议长之前,他就以领导军事改革而闻名。1981年,金里奇与人共同创立了军事改革和太空核心小组。

Anduril is a leading edge technology company focused on autonomous drones and sensors it is providing for the Department of Defense that are being used operationally in the war against Iran. Anduril just received a $20 billion non-compete contract with the Army. Gingrich, elected to the House in 1978 and armed with a Ph.D. in European history, was well known for his efforts in leading military reform long before he became Speaker in 1995. In 1981, Gingrich co-founded the Caucuses on Military Reform and Space.

他的想法是辩论概念和战略,而不是预算项目。金里奇在越南战争期间的军事延期和与他以前的高中老师结婚一直备受争议,他是使共和党重新掌权的主要力量。虽然这种思想的结合在纸面上是令人敬畏的,但没有人参加过战争或指挥过部队。因此,目前还不清楚Meridian将实现什么是可行的,技术上可能的和负担得起的。

His idea was to debate concepts and strategy rather than budget line items. Always controversial for his military deferments during the Vietnam War and for marrying his former high school teacher, Gingrich was a major force in bringing Republicans back to power. Although this combination of minds is formidable on paper, none has been to war or commanded troops in action. It is therefore unclear that what Meridian will achieve that is feasible, technically possible and affordable.

事实上,有些人可能会认为好莱坞工作室可能同样有创意。但是,赫格塞斯确实引起了兴趣。那么可以采取哪些措施来确保子午线成功呢?金里奇知道,历史提供了一个解决方案。1953年1月,德怀特·艾森豪威尔就任总统时,他委托实施了日光计划,旨在确定应对苏联的国家安全战略。三个独立的工作组获得了授权,每个工作组都有不同的假设。

Indeed, some might argue that a Hollywood studio might be as creative. But, Hegseth has certainly generated interest. So what might be done to ensure Meridian succeeds? As Gingrich knows, history offers a solution. When Dwight Eisenhower assumed the presidency in January 1953, he commissioned Project Solarium, an effort to determine national security strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union. Three separate task forces were empowered, each with a different set of assumptions.

Hegseth应该考虑效仿这个多任务组组织。应另外设立两个小组。其中一位将由我们经验最丰富的过去高级官员组成。另一个将由参谋长联席会议副主席领导,由四星地理和职能作战指挥官组成。第二组的提名人应包括前参谋长联席会议主席(以及前军种负责人)海军上将迈克·马伦和海军陆战队将军约瑟夫·邓福德;陆军上将大卫·彼得雷乌斯,在阿富汗和伊拉克拥有非凡的经验;空军上将菲利普·布里德洛夫,欧洲前盟军最高指挥官;以及前战略司令部司令兼副主席、拥有广泛太空背景的空军上将约翰·海滕。这三个小组最初都将独立运作。

Hegseth should consider emulating this multi-task force organization. Two additional groups should be established. One would consist of our most experienced past senior officers. The other would be formed under the vice chairman of the joint chiefs, with the four star geographic and functional combatant commanders. Nominees for that second group should include former chairmen of the joint chiefs (as well as former service heads) Admiral Mike Mullen and Marine General Joseph Dunford; Army General David Petraeus, with extraordinary experience in Afghanistan and Iraq; Air Force General Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander Europe; and Air Force General John Hyten, former commander strategic command and vice chairman, with an extensive background in space. All three groups would initially operate independently.

在模仿艾克的日光浴室时,赫格塞斯将根据战斗指挥官今天所做的和展望未来的情况,汇集创新、战略思维和当前相关性方面的精英。有些人会担心马斯克-拉基-金里奇团队会提出过于夸张的想法,以至于不严肃。有些人可能认为退休旗官可能没有得到足够的信息,以至于他们的调查结果无效。还有一些人可能认为战斗指挥官过于执着于现在--考虑未来超出了他们的章程范围。

In emulating Ike’s Solarium, Hegseth would bring together the best of the best regarding innovation, strategic thinking and current relevance, based on what the combatant commanders are doing today and in contemplating the future. Some will be concerned that the Musk-Luckey-Gingrich team will produce ideas so over-the-top as to be unserious. Some may think that retired flag officers may be insufficiently informed to invalidate their findings. And still others might assume that combatant commanders are too wedded to the present — that considering the future is beyond their charter.

这些怀疑者错了。如果我们要设计国家安全需要什么,日光浴室作为一个典范是完美的。但赫格塞斯会同意吗?哈兰·乌尔曼是一家私营公司的董事长,也是震惊与敬畏学说的主要作者。他的下一本书与前英国陆军元帅大卫·理查兹勋爵合着国防部长将于今年秋天推出《谁认为最好获胜:果断的战略思维将如何防止全球混乱》。"

These doubters are wrong. Solarium as a model is perfect if we are to devise what national security needs. But will Hegseth agree? Harlan Ullman is chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out this Fall, is "Who Thinks Best Wins: How Decisive Strategic Thinking Will Prevent Global Chaos."