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几乎不再有火车头:俄罗斯的打击如何扼住乌克兰的生命线Almost no locomotives left: How Russia's strikes are choking Ukraine's lifeline

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随着俄罗斯的袭击袭击乌克兰的铁路、港口和工业,乌克兰正在寻找机车和资金。这种损害正在抑制出口、减少税收并提高维持战争的成本。

Ukraine is seeking locomotives and funds as Russian strikes hammer its railways, ports and industry. The damage is choking exports, shrinking tax revenue and raising the cost of sustaining the war.

俄罗斯全面入侵四年多后,乌克兰正面临日益加深的经济紧缩。俄罗斯的罢工正在袭击全国各地的工厂、港口、铁路和桥梁。与此同时,战斗成本持续上升。基辅现在正在争夺资金来维持战争,并争夺机车来维持经济运转。

More than four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine is facing a deepening economic squeeze. Russian strikes are battering factories, ports, railways and bridges across the country. At the same time, the cost of fighting continues to rise. Kyiv is now scrambling for money to sustain the war -- and for locomotives to keep its economy moving.

俄罗斯对乌克兰铁路网络的袭击摧毁或损坏了数百辆机车,给本已因战争而不堪重负的交通系统带来了进一步的压力。

Russian strikes on Ukraine's rail network have destroyed or damaged hundreds of locomotives, putting further pressure on a transport system already stretched by the war.

影响现已波及该国的黑海贸易。谷物、铁矿石和其他货物仍然需要从内陆生产中心运往港口,这意味着受损的海事基础设施只是问题的一部分。如果没有足够的火车来运输货物,将货物运到泊位可能成为主要的瓶颈。

The impact is now reaching the country's Black Sea trade. Grain, iron ore and other cargo still need to travel from inland production centres to the ports, meaning damaged maritime infrastructure is only part of the problem. Without enough trains to haul freight, getting cargo to the berths could become the major bottleneck.

乌克兰农业部长塔拉斯·维索茨基(Taras Vysotskyi)对英国《金融时报》表示,乌克兰正在与欧洲国家进行谈判,这些国家的铁路使用相同的轨距,以确保获得更多的机车和车辆。

Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told the Financial Times that Ukraine is negotiating with European countries whose railways use the same track gauge in an effort to secure additional locomotives and rolling stock.

在乌克兰主要海上门户之一的Pivdennyi港周围,这种紧迫性尤其明显。港口运营商TIS首席执行官Mykyta Hrubov告诉英国《金融时报》,该公司码头周围有三辆机车丢失。根据报告,他说:“现在短缺严重,这对我们来说是一个弱点。”

The urgency is particularly clear around the port of Pivdennyi, one of Ukraine's major maritime gateways. Mykyta Hrubov, chief executive of port operator TIS, told the FT that three locomotives had been lost around the company's terminal. "There is a big shortage now, this is a weak point for us," he said, as per the report.

俄罗斯正在追捕乌克兰的火车机车短缺不仅仅是设备老化或战场消耗的结果。俄罗斯越来越多地将乌克兰的铁路系统作为目标。

RUSSIA IS HUNTING UKRAINE'S TRAINS The locomotive shortage is not simply the result of ageing equipment or battlefield attrition. Russia has increasingly made Ukraine's railway system a target.

俄罗斯军队加强了对载有粮食和铁矿石的火车的袭击,这是该国两种最重要的出口商品。此前有报道称,自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵以来,已有500多辆机车受损或被毁,其中一半以上的损失发生在2026年。乌克兰铁路运营商还警告称,每月都会损失数十辆机车。

Russian forces have stepped up attacks on trains carrying grain and iron ore, two of the country's most important export commodities. Earlier reports said more than 500 locomotives had been damaged or destroyed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022, with more than half of those losses occurring in 2026. Ukraine's railway operator has also warned that it is losing dozens of locomotives every month.

袭击不再局限于前线。俄罗斯越来越多地部署喷气动力无人机来追捕移动中的火车,使用中继网络使操作员能够控制无人机,即使乌克兰电子战系统试图干扰它们。

The attacks are no longer confined to the frontline. Russia has increasingly deployed jet-powered drones to hunt moving trains, using relay networks that allow operators to control the drones even when Ukrainian electronic warfare systems are trying to disrupt them.

乌克兰国家铁路运营商Ukrzaliznytsia管理委员会主席Oleksandr Pertsovskyi表示,此次行动不仅仅是扰乱军事后勤。

Oleksandr Pertsovskyi, chairman of the management board at Ukraine's state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia, has said the campaign goes beyond disrupting military logistics.

他说:“俄罗斯人的目标是孤立我们的前线社区,在已经精疲力尽的当地人中散布恐慌和恐惧,瘫痪经济。”

"Russians aim to isolate our frontline communities, sow panic and fear among the already exhausted locals, paralyze the economy," he said.

这条铁路对于疏散平民和运输关键物资也至关重要,这意味着每辆机车损失的后果远远超出了商业货物的运输范围。

The railway is also essential for evacuating civilians and transporting critical supplies, meaning every locomotive lost has consequences well beyond the movement of commercial cargo.

乌克兰1,520毫米的铁路规格使得更换工作更加困难。大多数欧洲铁路使用较窄的1,435毫米标准,限制了可以快速转移和投入使用的机车数量。

Ukraine's 1,520-millimetre railway gauge makes the replacement effort harder. Most European railways use the narrower 1,435-millimetre standard, limiting the number of locomotives that can be transferred and put into service quickly.

港口也面临压力铁路危机正在与另一个重大问题发生冲突:俄罗斯加大对乌克兰黑海出口基础设施的攻击。

THE PORTS ARE UNDER PRESSURE TOO The railway crisis is colliding with another major problem: Russia's intensifying attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea export infrastructure.

乌克兰的黑海港口长期以来对其经济发展至关重要。在全面入侵之前,他们处理了该国绝大多数的粮食出口。现在,一再发生的袭击破坏了港口基础设施,并中断了连接农场和工业场所与海岸的路线。农民和出口商已经感受到了后果。

Ukraine's Black Sea ports have long been crucial to keeping its economy moving. Before the full-scale invasion, they handled the vast majority of the country's grain exports. Now repeated attacks have damaged port infrastructure and disrupted the routes connecting farms and industrial sites to the coast. The consequences are already being felt by farmers and exporters.

乌克兰原预计今年将出口数千万吨农产品,但海上航线的中断使能够到达海外市场的农产品数量急剧减少。港口受到限制的时间越长,替代路线的压力就越大。但替代路线昂贵且有限。

Ukraine had expected to export tens of millions of tonnes of agricultural products this year, but the disruption to maritime routes has sharply reduced the amount that can reach overseas markets. The longer the ports remain constrained, the greater the pressure on alternative routes. But alternative routes are expensive and limited.

这使得机车成为问题的重要组成部分。港口可能有能力装载一艘船,但如果粮食和铁矿石无法从乌克兰内陆运输到码头,那么这种能力就没有多大用处。

That makes locomotives a big part of the problem. A port may have the capacity to load a vessel, but that capacity is of little use if grain and iron ore cannot be moved from inland Ukraine to the docks.

这种中断还给农民带来了储存问题,当运输和出口选择消失时,他们可能被迫将收成暂时储存或以较低的价格出售。

The disruption is also creating a storage problem for farmers, who risk being forced to keep harvests in temporary storage or sell at lower prices when transport and export options disappear.

乌克兰的战争法案正在上升交通基础设施面临的压力正在加剧,而财政危机却大得多。

UKRAINE'S WAR BILL IS RISING The pressure on transport infrastructure is unfolding against a much larger fiscal crisis.

在总统泽连斯基的家乡克里维里,俄罗斯的空袭导致该市钢铁和采矿业的主要部分陷入停滞。这座拥有约60万人口的工业城市现在正在努力在经济基础萎缩的同时保留基本服务。

In Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian airstrikes have brought major parts of the city's steel and mining industry to a standstill. The industrial city of about 600,000 people is now trying to preserve basic services while its economic base contracts.

市长奥莱克桑德·维尔库尔表示,该市正在尽一切努力保持医院开放、学校和幼儿园正常运转以及公交车正常运行。

Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul said the city was doing everything possible to keep hospitals open, schools and kindergartens functioning and buses running.

前矿业高管维尔库尔在视频讲话中表示:“除了前线本身,克里维里耶的情况实际上比其他任何地方都更糟糕。”

"In Kryvyi Rih, the situation is actually worse than anywhere else, apart from the front line itself," Vilkul, a former mining executive, said in a video address.

该市最大的雇主安赛乐米塔尔的采矿和钢铁综合体上个月在俄罗斯一系列弹道导弹袭击后暂停运营。这一损失反映了一个曾占乌克兰经济产出约十分之一的行业的更广泛崩溃。

The city's largest employer, ArcelorMittal's mining and steel complex, suspended operations last month after a series of Russian ballistic missile strikes. The damage reflects a broader collapse across an industry that once accounted for about a tenth of Ukraine's economic output.

包括扎波罗热在内的其他工业中心的钢铁厂也被迫停产或大幅减产。“这是关于生存。现在,我们需要生存,”维尔库尔说。

Steel plants in other industrial centres, including Zaporizhzhia, have also been forced to halt or sharply reduce production. "It's about survival. Right now, we need to survive," Vilkul said.

在政府比以往任何时候都需要更多资金之际,这种损害直接转化为税收损失。

The damage is translating directly into lost tax revenue at a time when the government needs more money than ever.

据路透社报道,乌克兰收入萎缩仅今年前9个月,乌克兰就在国防上花费了超过440亿美元。同期,政府筹集了约420亿美元的税收收入。

UKRAINE'S REVENUE SHRINKS Ukraine spent more than USD 44 billion on defence during the first nine months of this year alone, according to Reuters. Over the same period, the government raised about USD 42 billion in tax revenue.

俄罗斯的袭击加剧了这种不平衡。皮德拉萨表示,由于罢工损坏了财产、扰乱了物流并迫使企业暂时关闭,乌克兰预算今年前9个月的税收收入损失了超过495亿格里夫尼亚(约11亿美元)。据政府估计,到今年年底,累计损失可能达到700亿格里夫纳。

Russian attacks have made that imbalance worse. Pidlasa said Ukraine's budget had lost more than 49.5 billion hryvnias, or about USD 1.1 billion, in tax revenue during the first nine months of the year because strikes damaged property, disrupted logistics and forced businesses to shut temporarily. The cumulative loss could reach 70 billion hryvnias by the end of the year, according to government estimates.

财务压力已经影响着乌克兰明年的计划。政府提出了创纪录的约1100亿美元的国防预算,其中不包括盟友的直接军事援助。财政部长塞尔维纳·马尔琴科估计,明年的无资金缺口已经超过320亿美元。

The financial pressure is already shaping Ukraine's plans for next year. The government has proposed a record defence budget of about USD 110 billion, excluding direct military assistance from allies. Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has estimated that the unfunded gap for next year is already more than USD 32 billion.

马尔琴科认为,冻结俄罗斯在欧洲的资产可能有助于堵住这个漏洞。自入侵以来,欧盟国家已冻结了约2100亿欧元的俄罗斯央行资产。

Marchenko has argued that frozen Russian assets in Europe could help plug the hole. EU countries have immobilised roughly 210 billion euros in Russian central bank assets since the invasion.

马尔琴科在接受乌克兰企业采访时表示:“乌克兰继续调动国内资源,但俄罗斯战争的规模明显限制了我们的能力。”

"Ukraine continues to mobilise domestic resources, but the scale of Russia's war puts clear limits on our capacity," Marchenko said on For Ukrainian businesses, the uncertainty is becoming harder to absorb.

一些公司削减了业务,而另一些公司则搁置了投资计划。农业部门也面临类似的压力。俄罗斯对黑海港口的袭击扰乱了乌克兰最大的出口收入来源之一,而机车的短缺威胁着将农作物和原材料运往沿海所需的内陆供应链。

Some companies have cut back operations, while others have shelved investment plans. The agriculture sector faces a similar squeeze. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports have disrupted one of Ukraine's biggest sources of export revenue, while the shortage of locomotives threatens the inland supply chain needed to move crops and raw materials to the coast.

这让乌克兰面临着一个军事和经济问题:它需要资金来替换被摧毁的基础设施,但破坏本身正在减少为战争提供资金所需的税收和出口收入。

That leaves Ukraine facing a problem that is both military and economic: it needs money to replace the infrastructure being destroyed, but the destruction itself is reducing the tax and export revenues needed to fund the war.

对于铁路来说,没有停止的计划。佩尔佐夫斯基表示,乌克扎利尼察正在为多种情况做准备,并研究替代方案,包括在火车被撞时通过公路运送乘客。

For the railways, there is no plan to stop. Pertsovskyi said Ukrzaliznytsia was preparing for multiple scenarios and working on alternatives, including moving passengers by road when trains are hit.

“我们有各种运营计划来平衡安全,但我们当然不会考虑停止的情况。正如我们的国家不考虑放弃战斗,铁路,自然,不考虑停止其业务,”他说,引述政治。

"We have various operational plans to balance safety, but we are certainly not considering a scenario where we stop. Just as our country does not contemplate giving up the fight, the railway, naturally, does not contemplate halting its operations," he said, as quoted by Politico.

几乎没有压力缓解的迹象。和平谈判仍处于僵局,而俄罗斯表示将继续瞄准基辅和其他乌克兰城市。对于一个已经在努力维持经济的国家来说,每一次新的罢工都会给基础设施带来更多的破坏,扰乱贸易,并给公共财政带来进一步的压力,这只会增加一场看不到尽头的战争已经付出的沉重代价。

There is little sign of the pressure easing. Peace talks remain deadlocked, while Russia has said it will continue targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. For a country already struggling to keep its economy afloat, every new strike brings more damage to infrastructure, disrupts trade and puts further strain on public finances, which only adds to the already heavy cost of a war with no end in sight.