基辅，10月5日——乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的家乡克里维里赫正面临着生存的严峻挑战。俄罗斯的空袭导致该市的钢铁厂和矿山陷入瘫痪，当地经济因此遭受重创。
KYIV, Oct 5 - Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is struggling to survive. Russian airstrikes have brought the city's huge steel plant and mines to a standstill, dragging the local economy to its knees.
市长奥莱山大·维尔库尔表示，这座沿因胡列茨河而建的庞大工业城市正在竭尽全力确保医院能够继续运营、幼儿园和学校的照明系统正常工作，并维持公交系统的运行。
Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul said the sprawling industrial city — which stretches along the banks of the Inhulets River — was doing everything possible to ensure its hospitals remain open, the lights remain on in kindergartens and schools, and buses keep running.
“在克里维里赫，情况实际上比前线任何地方都要糟糕，”52岁的维尔库尔（他曾担任矿业高管）在一段视频讲话中说。
"In Kryvyi Rih, the situation is actually worse than anywhere else, apart from the front line itself," Vilkul, 52, a former mining executive, said in a video address.
这座拥有约60万居民的城市正面临严重的财政压力，这凸显了乌克兰在应对自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵以来最严重的预算危机时所面临的种种挑战。
The financial squeeze on the city of about 600,000 people underlines the challenges facing Ukraine as the government navigates its biggest budget crisis since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
上个月，该市最大的雇主——阿塞洛米塔尔（ArcelorMittal）旗下的矿业和钢铁制造企业——在遭受多枚俄罗斯弹道导弹袭击后暂停了生产活动；这些袭击导致工厂的高炉无法正常运行。
Last month, the city's largest employer — ArcelorMittal's hulking mining and steelmaking complex — suspended its operations following a series of Russian ballistic missile strikes that darkened its furnaces. The prospects for next year, Vilkul said, are bleak.
维尔库尔指出，明年的前景十分黯淡：“现在最重要的是生存下去。”
"It's about survival. Right now, we need to survive," he said.
这种景象在乌克兰曾经强大的钢铁产业中随处可见：战前，钢铁产业曾占该国经济产出的十分之一；如今，东南部扎波罗热等地区的巨型钢铁厂已陷入停滞，出口也完全停止了。
It's a scene played out across Ukraine's once-mighty steel industry, which accounted for a tenth of economic output before the war. Giant mills in Zaporizhzhia in the southeast and other industrial cities stand silent and exports have stopped.
今年夏天，俄罗斯无人机和导弹袭击的升级摧毁了乌克兰各地的工厂和仓库，破坏了港口和铁路设施，迫使许多商店和企业关闭，从而减缓了经济增长和税收收入。与此同时，这场以技术为依托的战争让乌克兰的战争成本越来越高。
An escalation in Russia's drone and missile strikes this summer destroyed factories and warehouses across Ukraine, damaged ports and railways, and forced shops and businesses to close, slowing the growth of the economy and tax revenue. Meanwhile, the technology-driven war is becoming ever more expensive for Ukraine to fight.
由于未能通过西方盟友要求的税收改革和反腐败立法等法案，乌克兰所需的数十亿欧元外资贷款迟迟未能到位，导致国家财政陷入严重困境。
Billions of euros in foreign loans have been delayed by failure to pass bills including unpopular tax reforms and anti-corruption legislation demanded by Ukraine's Western allies, leaving a gaping hole in state coffers.
乌克兰今年需要560亿美元来填补这一缺口——相当于其经济产出的约四分之一。其中，270亿美元用于军事开支。
Ukraine needs $56 billion to fund that gap this year —equivalent to about a quarter of its economic output. Of that, $27 billion is military spending.
为弥补这一短缺，乌克兰官员上周在布鲁塞尔与欧洲伙伴会面，讨论提前发放明年根据一项900亿欧元（1010亿美元）欧盟贷款到期的款项。欧盟委员会和乌克兰表示，他们已找到资金来填补今年的缺口。
To bridge the shortfall, Ukrainian officials met European partners in Brussels last week to discuss bringing forward disbursements due next year under a €90-billion ($101-billion) EU loan. The European Commission and Ukraine said they had identified funds to close the gap this year.
但三位知情人士表示，加速这些付款有可能增加明年的预算压力——此时包括法国和波兰在内的欧洲盟友即将到来的竞选活动可能会削弱对基辅的支持。
But three sources familiar with the talks said accelerating these payments risked increasing budget pressure next year - at a time when looming election campaigns in European allies including France and Poland could erode support for Kyiv.
总理谢尔盖·科列茨基承认局势“充满挑战”。政府被迫冻结非必要开支——包括受损建筑和基础设施的重建——以优先保障军事开支、公共部门工资和养老金。“所有资源都应投入至至关重要的领域，”科列茨基对记者说。
Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi acknowledges the situation is "challenging". The government has been forced to freeze non-essential spending — including reconstruction of damaged buildings and infrastructure — to prioritise military spending, public sector wages and pensions. "All resources should be channelled into critically important areas," Koretskyi told reporters.
战争成本飙升，国内收入下降 根据议会预算委员会主席罗克索拉娜·皮德拉萨的说法，两年前，乌克兰单日作战成本为1.4亿美元，但这一数字已跃升至1.9亿美元。这还不包括西方盟友向基辅提供的直接军事支持。
WAR COSTS SOAR, DOMESTIC REVENUES FALL Two years ago, a single day of fighting cost Ukraine $140 million, but that figure has jumped to $190 million, according to Roksolana Pidlasa, the head of parliament's budget committee. And that does not include direct military support to Kyiv from its Western allies.
成本上升部分源于对昂贵的中远程武器的需求，这些武器能够打击俄罗斯的炼油厂和军工厂，以削弱莫斯科继续战争的能力。
Rising costs are driven partly by the need for expensive medium- and long-range weapons capable of striking Russia's oil refineries and military factories to reduce Moscow's ability to continue its war.
此外，扩军后的工资支出达到历史新高，国家还必须支持日益增多的残疾或阵亡士兵的军属家庭。
Plus, the wage bill for an expanded army is higher than ever before, and the state must support a growing number of military families of disabled or deceased soldiers.
“支出将继续增加，”皮德拉萨在基辅的一场会议上表示。“这是美国与欧洲需要加快行动，迫使（俄罗斯）结束这场战争的又一个务实理由。”数据显示，今年前九个月，乌克兰仅在国防方面的支出就超过440亿美元。这一数字还不包括盟友提供的实物军事支持。同期，由于经济放缓，政府仅能筹集约420亿美元的税收收入。
"Expenditure will continue to rise," Pidlasa told a conference in Kyiv. "This is one more pragmatic reason why the US and Europe need to act faster to force (Russia) to end this war." In the first nine months of this year, Ukraine spent more than $44 billion on defence alone, data showed. That does not include in-kind military support from allies. In the same period, the government was able to raise only about $42 billion in tax revenue as the economy slowed.
皮德拉萨表示，今年前九个月，由于俄罗斯的袭击不仅破坏了财产和商品，还扰乱了物流，并导致商店和企业一度关闭数小时，乌克兰预算损失了超过495亿格里夫纳（11亿美元）的税收收入。政府估计，到年底，累计损失可能升至700亿格里夫纳。
Pidlasa said that in the first nine months of this year Ukraine's budget lost over 49.5 billion hryvnias ($1.1 billion) in tax revenue because of Russian attacks that not only damaged property and goods, but disrupted logistics and shut shops and businesses for hours at a time. By the end of the year, the cumulative losses could rise to 70 billion hryvnias, the government estimates.
基辅智库经济战略中心的经济学家奥列克桑德拉·米罗年科表示：“我们面临的不是暂时性的问题，而是结构性问题——恰恰在支出急需资源的时候，收入却出现了问题。”
"We have not a temporary but a structural problem with the revenues at the very time when spending really requires resources," said Oleksandra Myronenko, an economist at the Centre for Economic Strategies, a Kyiv-based think tank.
一些乌克兰企业已经开始缩减运营。另一些企业则暂停了资本支出，以应对即将到来的艰难冬季。商业情绪和经济预期正在恶化。
Some Ukrainian businesses have started to scale back operations. Others have put capital expenditure on hold as the country braces for a difficult winter. Business sentiment and economic expectations are darkening.
基辅附近比拉泽尔卡市一个工业园区的创始人瓦西里·赫梅利尼茨基表示，他已经放弃了建造三家新工厂的计划。
Vasyl Khmelnytskyi, founder of an industrial park in the city of Bila Tserkva near Kyiv, said he had scrapped plans to build three new factories.
他在一条Facebook帖子中写道：“目前的风险实在太大——无论是对企业还是对民众而言。”
"The risks are simply too great right now — both for the business and for the people," he said in a Facebook post.
乌克兰的农业部门——该国最大的出口收入来源——受到的冲击尤为严重。俄罗斯对乌克兰黑海港口的袭击导致9月份谷物出口量同比下跌36.6%。
Ukraine's agricultural sector — its largest source of export revenues — has been particularly hard hit. Russian attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea ports led to a 36.6% fall in grain exports year-on-year in September.
经济部长奥列克桑德·克拉夫琴科表示，由于封锁，今年约有400亿美元的出口收入面临风险。
About $40 billion in export revenue is at risk this year as a result of the blockade, Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko said.
经济学家表示，即使有数百亿欧元的外国支持，乌克兰经济今年预计也只能增长0.5%至1.5%，低于2025年的1.8%。
Even with tens of billions of euros in foreign support, Ukraine's economy is expected to grow only between 0.5% and 1.5% this year, economists say — down from 1.8% in 2025.
外国援助被推迟在四年多的激烈战斗中，由于西方伙伴的财政支持，乌克兰得以维持宏观经济和金融稳定，自俄罗斯入侵以来，乌克兰已获得近2000亿美元。
FOREIGN AID IS DELAYED During more than four years of intense fighting, Ukraine has been able to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability thanks to fiscal support from its Western partners, receiving nearly $200 billion since Russia's invasion.
但科列茨基表示，由于改革迟迟未能通过，今年295亿美元的外援面临风险。政府已将约9亿美元的资本支出推迟至12月，希望该立法能够获得通过。
But $29.5 billion in foreign aid is now at risk this year because of delays in passing reforms, Koretskyi said. The government has postponed about $900 million of capital spending until December, in the hope the legislation will be passed.
科列茨基表示，目标是在10月15日之前在议会通过所有所需立法。
The aim is to pass all the required legislation in parliament by October 15, Koretskyi said. "Only then we will get all the money," Koretskyi said.
“只有这样我们才能拿到所有的钱，”科雷茨基说。“这绝对至关重要。需要尽快完成。“立法者现在正在讨论明年的预算。政府提议创纪录的1100亿美元国防预算支出。该数字不包括直接军事援助。
"This is absolutely vital. It needs to be done as soon as possible." Legislators are now discussing the budget for next year. The government has proposed record defence budget spending of $110 billion. This figure does not include direct military aid.
财政部长塞尔维纳·马尔琴科估计，明年的无资金预算缺口已经超过320亿美元。
Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko has estimated that the unfunded budget gap for the next year is already more than $32 billion.
马尔琴科说，解决方案的一部分是利用俄罗斯在欧洲的资产为乌克兰的预算提供资金。莫斯科入侵乌克兰后，欧盟国家冻结了约2100亿欧元的俄罗斯央行资产。
Part of the solution, Marchenko said, is to use frozen Russian assets in Europe to fund Ukraine's budget. EU countries immobilised some €210 billion of Russian central bank assets after Moscow invaded Ukraine.
马尔琴科在X上表示：“乌克兰继续调动国内资源，但俄罗斯战争的规模明显限制了我们的能力。”
"Ukraine continues to mobilise domestic resources, but the scale of Russia's war puts clear limits on our capacity," Marchenko said on X.