美国银行策略师表示，与消费者驱动型支出相比，投资者可能会发现，通过押注人工智能相关资本支出的巨额回报来赚取“轻松赚钱”变得越来越困难。
Investors are likely to find it increasingly hard to make “easy money” by betting on outsized returns from artificial intelligence-linked capital expenditures compared with consumer-driven spending, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
以萨维塔·苏布拉马尼安（Savita Subramanian）为首的策略师在周一的一份报告中写道，大量的人工智能相关支出和可自由支配支出的萎缩（后者是由白领失业推动的）的结合已经融入到投资头寸中。她说，展望未来，“购买人工智能资本支出受益人和销售白领消费主题的阿尔法可能会更加困难。”
The combination of abundant AI-related spending and shrinking discretionary spending, with the latter spurred by white-collar job losses, is already baked into investment positions, strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a Monday note. Going forward, “alpha from buying AI capex beneficiaries and selling white-collar consumption themes may be harder fought,” she said.
苏布拉马尼安表示：“我们认为现在是选择性地转向的时候了，因为低估美国消费者的胃口是危险的，而资本支出实力可能会更多地反映出来。”
“We think it‘s time to selectively pivot, as it is dangerous to underestimate the appetite of US consumers and capex strength may be more priced in than not,” Subramanian said.
Subramanian补充说，对只做多主动基金的分析显示，在被称为“人工智能颠覆者”的行业（信息技术服务、消费金融和软件）的定位接近历史低点。与此同时，工业股相对于非必需消费品股的头寸接近历史新高。据美国银行称，基金经理最看重的是电子设备、仪器和零部件。
alysis of long-only active funds shows positioning in sectors referred to as “AI disruptees” — information-technology services, consumer finance and software — sits near record lows, Subramanian added. Meanwhile, positioning in industrial stocks is near record highs relative to consumer discretionary stocks. Fund managers are most overweight electronic equipment, instruments and components, according to BofA.
美国银行上周表示，随着市场风险分布以及强劲的消费者支出和健康的资产负债表已转向上行，投资者可能想要“看涨”。
Last week, BofA said that investors might want to “get bulled up” as the distribution of market risks had shifted to the upside along with strong consumer spending and healthy balance sheets.
随着人工智能颠覆者中的高薪工作越来越面临风险，苏布拉马尼安现在看到“白领专业人士的交易持续下降，从需求下降”。她表示，这种趋势在主食股与非必需品股的配置中很明显。
With high-paying jobs among AI disruptees increasingly at risk, Subramanian now sees “a continued trade down amid white collar professionals from wants to needs.”The trend is evident in positioning in staples stocks versus discretionary stocks, she said.
过去12个月，消费品和非必需品股票的表现弱于标准普尔500指数。然而，标准普尔500消费品主要指数同期上涨了4.6%，而非必需消费品股票指数下跌了3.3%。运动服装公司Lululemon Athletica Inc.和耐克公司，例如，过去一年都下降了约50%。
Consumer staples and discretionary stocks are underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index in the past 12 months. However, the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index has climbed 4.6% in the period, while a gauge of the consumer discretionary stocks has fallen 3.3%. Athletic apparel companies Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Nike Inc., for instance, are both down about 50% in the past year.
苏布拉马尼安表示，目前的定位是“合理的”，因为可能从消费转向资本支出是今年的核心投资论点。在11月的未来一年展望中，美国银行策略师倾向于“资本支出而不是消费”，而与人工智能相关的支出可能仍然是“压舱物”。
Subramanian said the current positioning is “justified,” as a likely shift to capex from consumption had been a core investment thesis for this year. In a November year-ahead outlook, BofA strategists had favored “capex over consumption,” with AI-linked spending likely to remain the “ballast.”