博尔索纳罗的胜利将几乎完成特朗普的拉丁美洲版图弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗现在是巴西总统的热门人选，他将为特朗普总统在拉丁美洲提供一个重要的新盟友，特别是在安全方面。
A Bolsonaro Win Would Nearly Complete Trump’s Latin America Map Flávio Bolsonaro, now the favorite to win Brazil’s presidency, would give President Trump a critical new ally in Latin America, particularly on security.
自2025年初以来，拉丁美洲右翼候选人赢得了过去七次总统选举。第八名--巴西--可能还需要几周时间。
Right-wing candidates in Latin America have won the last seven presidential elections since the start of 2025. Number eight — Brazil — might be weeks away.
右翼的连胜极大地推动了特朗普总统在寻求美国对拉丁美洲施加更大控制时希望与具有意识形态意识的盟友合作。
The right’s winning streak is a major boost for President Trump’s desire to have ideologically-minded allies to partner with as he seeks to impose greater U.S. control over Latin America.
周日，巴西前极右翼总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro）的儿子弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）在选举第一轮中获得了最多选票，这使他在本月晚些时候对阵总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）时成为总统职位的有力支持。
On Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Brazil’s former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro, received the most votes in the election’s first round, making him a strong favorite for the presidency when he faces off against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva later this month.
对于右翼来说，拉丁美洲最大的国家和经济体巴西将是最大的奖品。
For the right, Brazil, Latin America’s largest nation and economy, would be the biggest prize.
巴西人还将国会和全国州长的控制权交给了右翼政客，其中包括四名姓氏博尔索纳罗的新联邦议员。(They是前总统的妻子、另外两个儿子和兄弟。）在更大的背景下，结果并不令人惊讶。拉丁美洲的政治长期以来一直摇摆不定。
Brazilians also gave right-wing politicians control of Congress and governorships across the nation, including four new federal lawmakers with the last name Bolsonaro. (They are the former president’s wife, two other sons and brother.) In a larger context, the results are not that surprising. Politics in Latin America have long swung back and forth.
就在几年前，左翼候选人还在连胜，声称巴西和哥伦比亚等国是他们的对手，并控制了该地区的大部分地区。
Just a few years ago, left-wing candidates were on a winning streak, claiming countries like Brazil and Colombia and giving them control over most of the region.
钟摆总是会摆回来。但拉丁美洲--哥伦比亚、智利、洪都拉斯、玻利维亚、秘鲁、厄瓜多尔和哥斯达黎加--的右翼倾向正在一个特别重要的时刻发生。
And a pendulum always swings back. But this lurch to the right in Latin America — in Colombia, Chile, Honduras, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and Costa Rica — is coming at a particularly consequential moment.
特朗普政府一心要通过关税、制裁、空袭、签证免签、选举干预、对古巴的石油封锁和抓获委内瑞拉领导人对该地区施加新水平的控制。
The Trump administration is bent on exerting new levels of control over the region with tariffs, sanctions, airstrikes, visa revocations, election interventions, an oil blockade on Cuba and the capture of Venezuela’s leader.
这是特朗普总统对门罗主义的更激进版本，即1823年美国在拉丁美洲的主导地位。特朗普的政策与右翼势力的崛起相结合，正在给该地区带来根本性转变，特别是在安全方面。
It’s President Trump’s more aggressive version of the Monroe Doctrine, the 1823 claim of U.S. primacy in Latin America. And the pairing of Mr. Trump’s policy with the right’s ascendance is creating a fundamental shift in the region, particularly when it comes to security.
特朗普政府已将拉丁美洲的首要任务定为新的禁毒战争。美国政府将打击该地区强大的卡特尔比作中东的反恐战争，并采取了相应的行动。
The Trump administration has made its top priority in Latin America a new war on drugs. The administration has compared fighting the region’s powerful cartels to the war on terror in the Middle East, and has acted accordingly.
美国国务院已将拉丁美洲的21个犯罪集团列为恐怖组织。五角大楼已对拉丁美洲周边水域的船只进行了71次袭击，造成近240人死亡，据称是毒贩。(Many法律专家认为罢工是非法的。）上个月，美国士兵参加了厄瓜多尔警方针对卡特尔的行动。
The State Department has labeled 21 criminal groups in Latin America as terrorist organizations. The Pentagon has carried out 71 strikes on boats in the waters around Latin America, killing nearly 240 people it claimed were drug traffickers. (Many legal experts consider the strikes illegal.) And last month, American soldiers joined a police operation in Ecuador against a cartel.
这就是特朗普政府想要扩大的合作。十八个拉丁美洲国家加入了新的美国-领导的打击卡特尔联盟，其中至少有四个国家--哥伦比亚、危地马拉、洪都拉斯和厄瓜多尔--已经同意与五角大楼联合军事行动。
That is the sort of cooperation the Trump administration wants to expand. Eighteen Latin American nations have joined a new U.S.-led coalition against cartels, and at least four of them — Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras and Ecuador — have already agreed to joint military operations with the Pentagon.
巴西拥有2亿公民，分布在大约占南美洲一半国土面积的国家，是失踪最多的部分。但如果博尔索纳罗赢得10月25日的决选，这种情况就会改变。
Brazil — with its 200 million citizens spread across a country that accounts for roughly half of South America’s size — has been the biggest missing piece. But that will change if Mr. Bolsonaro wins the runoff on Oct. 25.
先生博尔索纳罗多年来一直是特朗普的热心支持者，因为他的父亲是特朗普第一届政府期间的最高盟友之一。博尔索纳罗先生已经表示，他将把巴西加入名为“美洲之盾”的反卡特尔联盟，并与美国合作打击巴西帮派。
Mr. Bolsonaro has been an eager Trump supporter for years, as his father was one of Mr. Trump’s top allies during his first administration. Mr. Bolsonaro has already said he would add Brazil to the anti-cartel coalition, called the Shield of the Americas, and work with the United States to fight Brazilian gangs.
他去年在社交媒体帖子中表示，他将欢迎美国对巴西进行军事干预，但他在最近的采访中否认了这一点，称合作将仅限于情报部门。但正是博尔索纳罗成功游说特朗普将两个巴西帮派指定为恐怖组织。
He had suggested in social media posts last year that he would welcome U.S. military intervention in Brazil, though he denied that in recent interviews, saying the cooperation would be limited to intelligence. But it was Mr. Bolsonaro who successfully lobbied Mr. Trump to designate two Brazilian gangs as terrorist groups.
这并不是美国和拉丁美洲第一次试图共同打击贩毒团伙。但该地区意识形态的一致程度，以及特朗普政府军事干预的意愿，使这成为一个非同寻常的时刻。
It’s not the first time the U.S. and Latin America have tried to fight drug gangs together. But the degree of ideological alignment across the region, as well as the Trump administration’s willingness to intervene militarily, has made this an exceptional moment.
安全专家表示，这种协调可以帮助情报工作，特别是在追踪犯罪金融网络方面--这长期以来一直是拉丁美洲的一个问题。
Security experts say the coordination could aid intelligence, especially in tracking criminal financial networks — which have long been a problem for Latin America.
8月，五角大楼宣布成立一个新的西半球特别工作组，旨在充当盟国之间的情报和行动中心。上个月，14个国家效仿华盛顿的做法，将各种卡特尔指定为恐怖组织。
In August, the Pentagon announced a new task force for the Western Hemisphere designed to act as a hub for intelligence and operations among allied countries. And last month, 14 nations followed Washington’s lead and designated various cartels as terrorist organizations.
最大的卡特尔实际上是跨国公司，跨境贩运毒品和洗钱，因此这些指定可以使各国政府能够更好地通过制裁来打击其财务。
The largest cartels are effectively multinational corporations, trafficking drugs and laundering money across borders, and so the designations could enable governments to better attack their finances with sanctions.
“你们只能靠自己，”特朗普上个月在联合国对他的拉美盟友说。“你不再是一个人了。”与此同时，特朗普政府已经表示，它不太急于帮助左翼政府。在哥伦比亚，选民选举Abelardo De La Espriella之前就是这种情况，他是一名律师，发誓要对卡特尔采取特别强硬的态度。作为与巴西卢拉左翼政府更大规模外交争执的一部分，白宫扣留了该国联邦警察的签证。
“You were on your own,” Mr. Trump told his Latin American allies at the United Nations last month. “You’re not on your own anymore.”At the same time, the Trump administration has signaled that it’s less eager to help leftist governments. That was the case in Colombia before voters there elected Abelardo De La Espriella, a lawyer who has vowed to take an especially hard-line approach to cartels. And as part of a larger diplomatic tiff with Mr. Lula’s leftist government in Brazil, the White House has withheld visas for federal police agents from the country.
墨西哥是另一个仍由左翼政府管理的拉丁美洲大国，实际上已经扩大了与政府的安全合作，但美国-墨西哥关系在该地区独一无二。（乌拉圭人口350万，是该地区第三个左派民主国家。）反卡特尔联盟是否能够发挥作用仍然存在疑问。专家表示，五角大楼的船只袭击几乎没有减缓可卡因的流动。关于各国将如何真正合作，以及一旦特朗普下台，努力将如何，目前还没有什么具体细节。
Mexico, the other big Latin American democracy still run by a leftist government, has actually expanded its security cooperation with the administration, but the U.S.-Mexico relationship is unique in the region. (Uruguay, whose population is 3.5 million, is the third leftist democracy left in the region.) There are still questions about whether the counter-cartel coalition can make a difference. Experts say the Pentagon’s boat strikes have hardly slowed the flow of cocaine. And there are few specifics on how countries will actually work together, and what becomes of the effort once Trump is out of power.
人们还质疑这对拉丁美洲公民和主权意味着什么。美国与任何一个拉丁美洲国家之间政治、经济和军事实力的不平衡都是严重的，即使是与巴西也是如此。
There are also questions on what it means for Latin America's citizens and sovereignty. The imbalance in political, economic and military power between the United States and any one Latin American nation is significant, even with Brazil.
先生例如，特朗普试图通过对巴西产品征收50%的关税来干预针对Bolsonaro先生的父亲的刑事案件，他面临企图政变的指控。这一努力失败了，Jair Bolsonaro被定罪，但卢拉先生警告说，面对华盛顿的压力，拉丁美洲必须保持自己的治理能力。
Mr. Trump, for instance, tried to intervene in the criminal case against Mr. Bolsonaro’s father, who faced charges for attempting a coup, by imposing 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian products. That effort failed and Jair Bolsonaro was convicted, but Mr. Lula has warned since that Latin America must retain its ability to govern itself in the face of pressure from Washington.
先生然而，博尔索纳罗辩称，对主权的威胁不是来自特朗普，而是来自卡特尔。为了在巴西与他们作斗争，博尔索纳罗承诺向萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克莱学习，他的独裁策略大幅降低了犯罪率，同时也引发了侵犯人权的投诉。
Mr. Bolsonaro, however, has argued that the threat to sovereignty comes not from Mr. Trump but from the cartels. To fight them in Brazil, Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to learn from Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador whose authoritarian tactics has drastically lowered crime rates while also drawing complaints of human rights abuses.
在拥有600万人口的国家，布克莱先生在几乎没有正当程序的情况下关押了数万名年轻人，将许多人关进了他所谓的“巨型监狱”。博尔索纳罗先生表示，他已经研究了布克莱先生的做法，并提议建造五所类似的监狱，并呼吁将刑事责任年龄降低到16岁，并对强奸犯和虐待儿童者进行化学阉割。
In his nation of six million, Mr. Bukele has locked up tens of thousands of young men with little due process, placing many in what he calls “mega-prisons.”Mr. Bolsonaro, who said he has studied Mr. Bukele’s approach, has proposed building five similar prisons, and has also called for lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 16 and chemically castrating rapists and child abusers.
拉丁美洲领导人越来越高度评价布克莱的做法及其取得的成果，使萨尔瓦多成为该地区最安全的国家之一。布克莱自称是世界上最酷的独裁者，根据民意调查，他也是世界上最受欢迎的总统之一。
Latin American leaders have increasingly spoken highly of Mr. Bukele’s approach and the results it has yielded, making El Salvador one of the region’s safest nations. Mr. Bukele, who has called himself the world’s coolest dictator, is also, according to polls, one of the world’s most popular presidents.
杰克·尼卡斯（Jack Nicas）是《泰晤士报》墨西哥城分社社长，负责墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区的报道。
Jack Nicas is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.