当一个长期持有股票的人改变立场时，这真的是一件大事。这就是为什么华尔街对周一备受关注的Melius Research分析师Ben Reitzes发布的微软报告感到热议。雷茨斯将俱乐部股票从持有转为买入，自二月份下调以来，他的评级一直处于这一水平。甚至在此之前，他就一直在敲响企业软件股容易受到人工智能破坏风险的警报。
When a longtime holdout on a stock changes his tune, it's a really big deal. That's why Wall Street is abuzz over Monday's Microsoft note from closely watched analyst Ben Reitzes of Melius Research. Reitzes took the Club stock to a buy from hold, where his rating had been since a February downgrade. And even before that, he had been sounding the alarm that enterprise software stocks were vulnerable to AI disruption risks.
除了周一的升级之外，雷茨斯还表示，“冒着尴尬的风险”，他将价格目标从465美元一路上调至665美元，这意味着比当前525美元左右的水平上涨了25%以上。这位分析师在他的报告标题中总结道：“成年人负责”，他认为微软经验丰富的领导力和稳健的做法将在人工智能的下一阶段得到客户和投资者的回报。在Reitzes看来，Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amedei最近对人工智能安全性的恐慌，以及人工智能行业其他主要意见领袖的后续行动，增强了对微软和网络公司的需求，这些公司需要保护免受与数据隐私和流氓人工智能代理相关的最严重担忧。
Along with Monday's upgrade, Reitzes also said that "at the risk of embarrassment," he raised his price target all the way up to $665 from $465, implying more than 25% of upside to current levels around $525. Summed up in the title of his note, "The adults are in charge," the analyst thinks that Microsoft's experienced leadership and steady hand will be rewarded by clients and investors in this next leg of artificial intelligence. In Reitzes' view, the recent freakout by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei about AI safety, and follow-up from other key opinion leaders in the AI industry, served to strengthen the demand for Microsoft and the cyber companies needed to protect against the most severe concerns relating to data privacy and rogue AI agents.
雷茨写道，这些更成熟的玩家将“在安全、治理和可能在早期几局的‘AI CYA’比赛中扮演关键角色”。值得注意的是，Reitzes表示，他去年对微软也有同样的感觉，但后来由于Azure和Copilot的问题而感到沮丧和更加悲观。吉姆也对微软感到沮丧。但正如吉姆总是说的那样，当事实发生变化时，你的观点也应该发生变化。他的观点确实如此。
These more mature players will play "a key cog in the security, governance and the 'AI CYA' play that is likely in the early innings," Reitzes wrote. Notably, Reitzes said he had felt this same way about Microsoft last year, before getting frustrated and more bearish due to issues with Azure and Copilot. Jim had also been frustrated with Microsoft. But as Jim always says, when the facts change, so should your opinion. His views did. And so have those of Reitzes, who said he is now ready to get more bullish on Microsoft, citing last month's "repackaging of Copilot with Autopilot for agents may indeed be the product enterprises choose to corral potential chaos."
雷茨斯也是如此，他表示他现在准备好更加看好微软，并指出上个月“为代理商重新包装Copilot和Autopilot可能确实是企业选择遏制潜在混乱的产品。“微软在核心应用程序和Azure方面的前景比我们之前想象的要好，因为它可能更不受代理威胁的影响，”雷茨斯写道。他在2024年预测，从长远来看，人工智能将“吃掉大量软件”，鉴于“SaaSpocalypse”叙事的兴起，这是一个有先见之明的呼吁。该叙事去年占据主导地位，并在2026年初达到了狂热程度。我们认为Reitzes的新论点是合理的，并且与Jim的观点一致，即微软的Copilot转向企业，为公司提供了一个安全的空间，可以在软件平台的保护性拥抱中利用人工智能为其业务提供一个安全的空间。他们已经大量嵌入其中。换句话说，对人工智能的恐惧--无论是外部黑客攻击还是人工智能工具失控的风险--将巩固对微软等能够最好地防范风险的公司的需求。企业客户似乎更愿意承担额外的成本，因为安全总比遗憾好。Reitzes认为，更多的公司最终会转向微软，因为他们认为新的实验室太不稳定，无法围绕整个业务实施进行规划。“我们看到了Azure增长超过50%的可靠途径，因为供应开始赶上需求，价格变得更加坚挺，OpenAI也在上升。“请记住，微软仍然是OpenAI计算能力的主要提供商，尽管两家公司之间的关系自ChatGPT于2022年底推出并席卷全球以来一直在发展。这种演变使微软可以自由地变得更加不受模型影响。微软不再那么关注人工智能模型层，而是更多地关注于利用层。
"Microsoft's prospects in core apps and Azure are better than we previously thought, as it may be more insulated from agentic threats," wrote Reitzes, who in 2024 predicted that AI will "eat a lot of software," over the long term , a prescient call given the rise of the "SaaSpocalypse" narrative that took hold last year and reached a fever pitch earlier in 2026. We think Reitzes' new argument is sound and aligns with Jim's views that Microsoft's Copilot pivot to enterprise makes it a safe space for companies to take advantage of AI for their businesses inside the protective embrace of the software platforms in which they are already heavily embedded. Put another way, fear of AI — be it an outside hack or the risk that an AI tool goes rogue — will solidify demand for those, like Microsoft, that can best protect against the risks.
我们之前讨论了人工智能背景下的安全带的重要性--模型是大脑，而安全带是可以执行大脑动作并在无需进一步提示的情况下自主行动的身体。雷兹斯表示：“鉴于其‘合作伙伴’正在预测世界末日，该策略现在似乎更加聪明--而微软本质上可以为董事会提供一种形式的‘人工智能保险’。”“Copilot是前端; Agent 365为代理提供注册表、安全和管理层，无论底层模型如何。.的想法是，随着模型变得越来越可互换，微软仍然可以通过拥有围绕代理工作流程的身份、治理、数据和计费基础设施来获取价值。在这个框架下，模型越来越成为商品输入，而企业利用则成为战略控制点。“这触及了问题的核心。仅靠前沿模型不足以证明这些大型科技公司的巨额资本支出是合理的。对投资者来说，更多的是公司可以利用这些模型做什么。Meta平台分享无疑讲述了这个故事。自该公司于9月初推出Muse个人人工智能代理以来，该公司股价已飙升逾20%，并在一项新的企业业务上加倍投入资金，其中包括面向小企业的Muse。“如何使用模型”的想法真正触动了指针，尽管该想法所依据的Spark模型的强大基准结果已被广泛宣传。一句话，鉴于微软现在正在寻求在应用层插上自己的主要旗帜，但在它已经占据主导地位的企业世界中，雷茨斯更加乐观的前景是完全有道理的。目前该股的交易价格距离2025年10月28日542美元的历史新高收盘价仅差约3%，我们认为这将使该股在进一步突破之前回落至该水平。
Enterprise customers appear more willing to bear the additional costs because it's better to be safe than sorry. Reitzes believes more companies will ultimately turn to Microsoft on the idea that the newer labs are too erratic to plan an entire business implementation around. "We see a credible path for Azure growth to exceed 50% as supply begins to catch up with demand, pricing gets firmer, and OpenAI ramps." Remember, Microsoft is still a main provider of computing power to OpenAI, even as the relationship between the two companies has evolved since the early days when ChatGPT launched in late 2022 and took the world by storm. That evolution has given Microsoft the freedom to become more model-agnostic. Microsoft has become less focused on the AI model layer and more on the harness layer. We previously discussed the importance of the harness in the context of agentic AI — the model being the brain and the harness as the body that can carry out the actions of the brain and act autonomously without further prompts. "The strategy seems even smarter now given its 'partners' are predicting the end of the world — and Microsoft, in essence, can provide Boards with a form of 'AI insurance,'" Reitzes said. "Copilot is the front end; Agent 365 provides the registry, security and management layer for agents regardless of the underlying model. … The thought process is that as models become increasingly interchangeable, Microsoft can still capture value by owning the identity, governance, data and billing infrastructure around the agentic workflow.
我们对微软的目标是每股550美元。然而，我们拥有相当于2的持有评级，因为追逐抛波走势不是我们的风格。自6月底触及349美元的52周低点以来，该股已飙升50%。微软7月份强劲的季度业绩证实了我们对股票的耐心以及我们对首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉和首席财务官艾米·胡德管理团队的信任。和雷兹一样，我们相信仍然会有更多的回报。
In this framework, the model is increasingly a commodity input while the enterprise harness becomes the strategic control point." This gets to the heart of the matter. A frontier model alone is not enough to justify the massive levels of capital expenditures from these megacap tech companies. It's more about what the companies can do with these models that matters to investors. Meta Platforms shares certainly tell that story. The stock has soared more than 20% since the company launched its Muse personal AI agent in early September and then doubled down on a new enterprise endeavor, including Muse for small businesses. It was the "how the model can be used" idea that really moved the needle, even as the strong benchmark results for the Spark model underlying it were well publicized. Bottom line Given that Microsoft is now looking to plant its own major flag at the application layer, but in the enterprise world in which it already dominates, Reitzes' more optimistic outlook makes perfect sense. With shares now trading only about 3% away from their record-high close of $542 on Oct. 28, 2025, we think this sets the stock up to make a run back to those levels before breaking out further.
(Jim克莱默的慈善信托基金长期持有MSFT、Meta。请参阅此处了解股票的完整列表。）至于CNBC投资俱乐部与吉姆克莱默，你会收到一个贸易警报之前，吉姆使贸易。吉姆在发送交易警报后等待45分钟，然后再购买或出售其慈善信托投资组合中的股票。
We have a $550 per share price target on Microsoft. We, however, have a hold equivalent 2 rating because it's not our style to chase parabolic moves. The stock has surged 50% since its 52-week low of $349 in late June. Microsoft's strong quarterly results in July validated our patience with the stock and our trust in the management team of CEO Satya Nadella and CFO Amy Hood. Like Reitzes, we believe there will still be more payoff to be had. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long MSFT, META. )