RNZ-Reid Research的一项民意调查显示，在距离大选不到五周之际，由于选民转向小党派，新西兰执政党国家党（National Party）的支持率跌至2020年以来的最低点，同时反对党工党（Labour Party）也失去了部分支持。
New Zealand’s governing National Party has slumped to its weakest result since 2020, while the opposition Labour Party has also lost support as voters shift to smaller parties less than five weeks before the election, a RNZ-Reid Research poll showed.
根据周二公布的民调结果，由总理克里斯托弗·拉克森（Christopher Luxon）领导的国家党下降了3.2个百分点，至25.9%；工党则下跌了1.4个百分点，至30.8%。大选将于11月7日举行。
By Ainsley Thomson National, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, fell 3.2 percentage points to 25.9% and Labour shed 1.4 points to 30.8%, according to the poll published Tuesday. The election will be held on Nov. 7.
这两大主要政党的支持率合计为56.7%，低于2023年大选时的64.9%。由于选民对国家党未能显著缓解生活成本压力或重振低迷经济感到失望，加之工党未能提供令人信服的替代方案，支持率正流向小党派。
The two major parties have a combined 56.7% support, down from 64.9% at the 2023 election. Support has been flowing to minor parties due to voter frustration over National’s failure to significantly ease cost-of-living pressures or revive a sluggish economy, while Labour has struggled to provide a compelling alternative.
在左翼方面，绿党（Green Party）上升了4.6个百分点，达到14.8%，而毛利党（Te Pāti Māori）下降了1个百分点，至2%。在右翼方面，民族主义政党新西兰优先党（New Zealand First）下跌了1.3个百分点，至10.6%，而自由主义的行动党（ACT Party）则上升了1.3个百分点，至9%。
On the left, the Green Party jumped 4.6 points to 14.8%, while Te Pāti Māori fell 1 point to 2%. On the right, nationalist party New Zealand First was down 1.3 points to 10.6%, while the libertarian ACT Party was up 1.3 points to 9%.
如果这项在9月24日至10月1日期间对1000人进行的民调结果在选举日重现，无论是现有的由国家党、新西兰优先党和行动党组成的联合政府，还是工党、绿党和毛利党的组合，都无法在拥有120个议席的议会中获得多数席位。
If the result of the poll, which surveyed 1,000 people between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1, was replicated on election day, neither the existing coalition of National-New Zealand First-ACT nor a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori combination would have a majority in the 120-seat parliament.
- 这使得从未进入过议会的小型中间派政党——机遇党（Opportunity Party）成为了关键的“造王者”。该党的民调支持率为5.5%，这意味着它将跨过5%的门槛进入议会。
That leaves the Opportunity Party, a small centrist party that has never entered parliament before, as the kingmaker. The party polled at 5.5%, meaning it would clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament.