新西兰两大主要政党在一项关键民调中势均力敌，使得将在不到四周后举行的选举形势紧张。
New Zealand’s two largest parties are neck-and-neck in a key opinion poll, putting the election to be held in less than four weeks on a knife’s edge.
据1News Verian民调于周二晚间公布，执政的中右翼国家党支持率下滑至28%，回落至2021年以来的最低水平。主要反对党中左翼工党支持率保持不变，仍为28%，维持其自2024年初以来的最低读数。
The ruling center-right National Party slipped to 28%, returning to its lowest level of support since 2021, according to the 1News Verian poll published late Tuesday. The main opposition center-left Labour Party was unchanged at 28% — maintaining its lowest reading since early 2024.
该结果凸显了传统主要政党的困境：在这项民调中，两党合计支持率已连续第三周低于60%。正寻求在11月7日选举中连任的总理克里斯托弗·拉克森，其施政受到经济疲软和生活成本压力的冲击，导致家庭收入受损；而工党则未能说服选民其具有吸引力的替代方案。相反，选民支持正流向较小的政党。
The result underlines the struggles of the traditional major parties that obtained less than 60% support between them for a third straight week in this poll. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who is seeking a second term at the Nov. 7 ballot, has been hampered by a sluggish economy and cost-of-living pressures that have hit household incomes, while Labour has failed to persuade people that it offers a compelling alternative. Instead, support has flowed to smaller political parties.
左倾绿党支持率下降一个百分点至15%，但若与机会党结盟，仍可为工党领导的联盟提供上台之路。机会党在本次民调中上升至8%。该党此前从未进入议会，因在过去选举中未能突破5%的门槛。然而，多项最近的民调显示其支持率已超过该门槛，提升其可能在决定下届政府组成中扮演关键角色的前景。
The left-leaning Green Party dipped one point to 15% support and continues to give the Labour-led bloc a pathway to power if it partners with the Opportunity Party, which rose to 8% in the poll. Opportunity has never entered parliament, having failed to reach the 5% threshold at previous elections. However, several recent surveys have put it above that level, raising the prospect that it may play a kingmaker role in determining the next government.
国家党目前与新西兰第一党和ACT党组成联合政府。民调显示，新西兰第一党支持率稳定在10%，而ACT党上升至10%。
National governs in a coalition with the New Zealand First Party and the ACT Party. Backing for NZ First was steady at 10% while ACT improved to 10%, the poll showed.
这意味着，根据该民调的投票分布，现有的中右翼联盟将无法在议会中获得多数席位。
That means that based on the distribution of votes in the poll, the existing center-right coalition wouldn’t achieve a majority in parliament.