北京：分析师称，中国暂停燃油出口可能会挤压亚洲部分地区的柴油供应，尽管该地区其他地方产量增加有助于缓冲影响。
BEIJING: China’s move to halt fuel exports could squeeze diesel supplies in parts of Asia, although increased production elsewhere in the region should help cushion the impact, say analysts.
路透社10月1日报道，援引消息人士称，中国炼厂已暂停10月份成品油出口。中国尚未发布官方公告。
Reuters reported on Oct 1 that Chinese refiners had suspended oil product exports for the month, citing sources. China has not made an official announcement.
观察人士称，这一暂停反映了在伊朗战争扰乱全球能源流动、局势高度不确定的背景下，对国内供应的担忧。
The pause reflects concerns over domestic supplies amid heightened uncertainty around global energy flows disrupted by the Iran war, observers say.
这也正值美国和欧洲部分地区油价飙升至历史高位之际，各国政府正在权衡措施以保障供应同时抑制成本。
It also comes as pump prices hit record-high levels in the United States and parts of Europe, with governments weighing measures to keep supplies flowing while reining in costs.
分析师补充称，随着买家寻求替代货源，影响可能波及亚洲以外地区，潜在收紧更远市场的供应。
Analysts add that the effects could also ripple beyond Asia as buyers seek replacement barrels, potentially tightening supplies in markets further afield.
“在全球柴油短缺的大背景下，中国暂停柴油出口对大西洋盆地供需平衡构成打击，”石油市场分析公司Sparta Commodities高级油市分析师June Goh对CNA表示，指的是大西洋周边市场的柴油供需情况。
“In the wider context of global diesel shortages, China’s diesel export suspension is a blow to the Atlantic Basin balances,” June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at oil-market analytics firm Sparta Commodities, told CNA, referring to diesel supply and demand in markets around the Atlantic Ocean.
国内优先 根据路透社报道，中国在为期一周的“黄金周”假期开始时，未批准主要炼厂向港澳以外地区出口10月份燃油产品。
DOMESTIC PRIORITIES China began its week-long Golden Week holiday without giving major refiners the green light to export fuel products to regions other than Hong Kong and Macau in October, according to the Reuters report.
在伊朗战争爆发后于3月收紧出口限制后，北京于7月放宽了燃油出口管制。目前中国按月管理柴油、汽油和航空煤油出口。
Beijing relaxed fuel export curbs in July after tightening them in March following the outbreak of the Iran war. The country currently manages diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments monthly.
北京最新决定的核心是一个熟悉的优先事项——确保国内燃油供应充足。
At the heart of Beijing’s latest decision is a familiar priority - ensuring adequate fuel supplies at home.
2026年5月6日，工人在上海静安区一家中石化加油站为汽车加油。“中国始终以国内能源安全为驱动，”Goh表示。
Workers fill the tanks of cars at a Sinopec petrol station in the Jing'an district in Shanghai on May 6, 2026. “China has been consistently driven by domestic energy security,” Goh said.
“暂停产品出口配额向市场释放了一个信号，即中国并不确信来自中东的原油供应能够继续免受霍尔木兹海峡进一步袭击的威胁，”戈表示。
“Suspending the product export quotas is a signal to the market that China is not confident that the crude flows from the Middle East are going to remain protected from further attacks in the Strait of Hormuz,” Goh said.
霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源流动的关键通道，自今年2月伊朗战争爆发以来，该海峡已多次遭遇中断。近期连接红海与亚丁湾的曼德海峡周边也发生了袭击事件，进一步加剧了市场对于供应的担忧。
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy flows, has faced repeated disruptions since the Iran war began in February. Recent attacks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, have added to supply concerns.
她还表示，此次暂停也为中国提供了时间，以便在“黄金周”假期期间应对任何新的发展情况。该假期将持续到10月7日。
The suspension also gives China time to calibrate against any new developments amid its Golden Week holiday, she added. The holiday runs through Oct 7.
2026年10月1日，中国北京，游客在国庆节——中国“黄金周”假期的第一天参观天坛公园。
Visitors tour the Temple of Heaven, also known as Tiantan Park, on National Day, the first day of China's Golden Week holiday, in Beijing, China, Oct 1, 2026.
据路透社报道，中国拥有全球最大的炼油能力，但北京方面已将燃料出口与本地库存恢复至战前水平挂钩。
China has the world's largest refining capacity, but Beijing has made fuel exports contingent on local stocks recovering to pre-war levels, Reuters has reported.
商品数据公司Kpler的清洁石油产品高级经理扎米尔·尤索夫在9月底告诉路透社，中国的商业煤油和柴油库存比该阈值低约2000万桶，汽油库存则短缺约900万桶。中国并未公开披露燃料库存数据。
The country’s commercial gasoil and diesel inventories were about 20 million barrels below that threshold, with gasoline roughly 9 million barrels short, Zameer Yusof, a senior manager for clean oil products at commodities data firm Kpler, told Reuters in late September. China does not publicly disclose fuel inventory data.
亚洲或将面临柴油短缺压力。中国的这一举措正值柴油市场尤为敏感的时期：中东地区生产中断以及乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击已使全球供应本就紧张。
ASIA COULD FEEL THE DIESEL SQUEEZE China’s halt comes at an especially sensitive time for diesel, with global supplies already strained by disruptions to Middle Eastern production and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
俄罗斯是美国之后全球第二大柴油出口国。今年7月，由于袭击导致国内供应紧张，俄罗斯实施了出口禁令，并将限制措施延长至10月。
Russia is the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the United States. It imposed an export ban in July after the attacks squeezed domestic supplies and has since extended the restrictions through October.
2026年9月20日，莫斯科，一名女子乘坐公交车，背景是俄罗斯石油生产商Gazprom Neft位于莫斯科的炼油厂升起的浓烟。亚洲地区尤其容易受到中国暂停出口的影响。
A woman rides in a bus as smoke rises from the area of the Russian oil producer Gazprom Neft's Moscow oil refinery in Moscow on Sep 20, 2026. Asia is particularly exposed to China’s suspension.
根据Kpler的数据，除香港外，新加坡是今年中国柴油最大的进口国，其次是澳大利亚、马来西亚、孟加拉国和菲律宾。越南和韩国也位列前十大目的地之中。
Excluding Hong Kong, Singapore is the largest importer of diesel from China this year, followed by Australia, Malaysia, Bangladesh and the Philippines, according to Kpler data. Vietnam and South Korea are also among the top 10 destinations.
然而，作为主要区域石油贸易枢纽的新加坡进口柴油，并不一定反映其国内消费情况。新加坡自身也生产柴油，既供本地消费也用于出口。
However, imports into Singapore, a major regional oil trading hub, do not necessarily reflect domestic consumption. Singapore also produces diesel for both local consumption and export.
“限制出口的决定意味着中国的外流量在短期内不会缓解价格，”牛津能源研究院中国能源研究主任Michal Meidan告诉CNA。
“The decision to limit exports means that Chinese outflows will not cushion prices in the near term,” Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told CNA.
他补充道：“受影响最大的是那些难以支付替代货源费用的低收入经济体。”
“The most exposed are the lower-income economies that would struggle to pay for alternative cargoes,” he added.
Sparta Commodities的Goh强调，中国的柴油通常出口到东南亚国家以及澳大利亚。
Goh from Sparta Commodities highlighted that China’s diesel is typically exported to Southeast Asian countries and also Australia.
她说：“但市场在短期内有足够的缓冲，因为其他亚洲国家也在提高炼厂开工率生产柴油，特别是韩国和印度。”
“But the market has enough buffer in the short term as other Asian nations are running up their refineries to produce diesel as well, particularly in (South) Korea and India,” she said.
路透社专栏作家Gavin Maguire在10月5日的评论中写道，印度“非常有能力填补”中国暂停燃油出口留下的空缺，他援引了印度原油进口反弹和近期燃油出口减税作为依据。连锁影响波及更远地区但这些替代桶油可能产生超出亚洲范围的后果。
India is “well-placed to fill the void” from China’s fuel export suspension, Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire wrote in an Oct 5 commentary, citing the country’s rebounding crude oil imports and recent tax cuts on fuel exports. KNOCK-ON EFFECTS FURTHER AFIELD But those replacement barrels could have consequences beyond Asia.
Goh表示：“虽然中国的柴油桶油不一定直接流向欧洲，但如果套利窗口开启，它们可能导致印度桶油转回亚洲，”她指的是价差足够大，使得将印度柴油运往亚洲市场在商业上更具吸引力。
“Although China’s diesel barrels do not necessarily directly flow to Europe, they would potentially cause Indian barrels to divert back to Asia if the arbitrage is open,” said Goh, referring to a price difference large enough to make shipping Indian diesel to Asian markets commercially more attractive.
“这意味着欧洲的柴油短缺将进一步恶化。”路透社报道，自伊朗战争爆发以来，基准欧洲柴油期货合约已升至每公吨1500美元以上的高位，创下自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的新高。
“This means Europe’s diesel shortage becomes further exacerbated.”The benchmark European diesel futures contract has hit highs above US$1,500 a metric tonne since the Iran war began, levels last seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Reuters reported.
由于伊朗战争引发的供应中断，欧洲正越来越依赖美国来填补柴油供应缺口。
Europe has turned increasingly to the US to plug a diesel supply gap caused by disruption from the Iran war.
然而，美国飙升的燃料价格也给总统唐纳德·特朗普带来了压力，迫使其在11月的中期选举前降低成本，这促使他的政府考虑限制柴油出口。
But surging fuel prices in the US have also put pressure on President Donald Trump to bring down costs ahead of November’s midterm elections, prompting his administration to consider curbing diesel exports.
2026年9月22日，在加利福尼亚州卡森市马拉松石油公司洛杉矶炼油厂外，一座加油站的价格牌与美国国旗一同映入眼帘。
Prices at a gas station are displayed across from a US flag outside the Marathon Petroleum Corp Los Angeles Refinery in Carson, California, on Sep 22, 2026.
在G7同意从紧急储备中释放1亿桶柴油和原油后，特朗普于周五（10月2日）排除了实施禁令的可能性。
Trump ruled out a ban on Friday (Oct 2) after the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves.
戈表示，G7的这一决定应该能在“短期内”缓解欧洲的柴油短缺问题。对亚洲而言，更关键的问题是中国将缺席市场多久。
Goh said the G7 decision should ease Europe’s diesel squeeze “in the short term”. The bigger question for Asia is how long China stays out of the market.
据路透社援引消息人士报道，目前尚不清楚北京是否会在10月7日黄金周假期结束后，重新允许炼油厂出口燃料。消息人士称，这一决定可能取决于国内燃料库存和炼油产量。
It was not clear whether Beijing will resume permitting refiners to export fuel after the Golden Week holiday ends on Oct 7, Reuters reported, citing sources who said the decision could depend on domestic fuel inventories and refining output.
戈表示：“一旦中国确认霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动不会出现大规模中断风险，并且在黄金周假期这一高需求季结束后积累了足够的产品库存，中国很可能会恢复出口。”
“China is likely to resume the exports once China ascertains there is no big risk of curtailment of flows from the Strait of Hormuz and they have built up enough product inventory after the high-demand season of the Golden Week holidays,” Goh said.