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10年期日本国债票面利率创30年新高,利率上升加剧财政担忧10-year JGB coupon hits 30-year high as rising rates add to fiscal fears

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东京——由于全球对政府债务的担忧持续发酵,日本国债二级市场收益率不断攀升,基准日本国债的票面利率首次突破3%,创下三十年来新高。

TOKYO -- The coupon rate on benchmark Japanese government bonds has topped 3% for the first time in three decades, as yields continue to climb in the secondary market on global concerns over government debt.

周二,日本财务省表示,本月即将发行的10年期日本国债(JGB)票面利率定为3.1%,为1996年8月以来的最高水平。

On Tuesday, the Finance Ministry said it has set the coupon rate on the 10-year JGB to be issued this month at 3.1%, the highest since August 1996.

原则上,财务省每三个月会重新评估10年期日本国债的票面利率。此前,该利率在7月至9月期间为2.7%,4月至6月期间为2.4%。票面利率通常设定为接近当前市场水平,因为若票面利率明显低于二级市场10年期日本国债的收益率,可能导致拍卖价格远低于面值。

The ministry reviews the coupon rate on 10-year JGBs every three months, in principle. The rate was 2.7% in July-September and 2.4% in April-June. It is set close to prevailing market levels, as a coupon significantly below the yield on 10-year JGBs in the secondary market could push the auction price well below par.

在周二举行的10年期日本国债拍卖中,投标覆盖率达到3.76倍,高于此前一次拍卖的3.29倍,且最高中标价格也创下30年来的最高水平。拍卖结果公布后,收益率略有下降,但仍低于3.1%的水平。

In the auction for 10-year JGBs on Tuesday, the bid-to-cover ratio rose to 3.76 times, up from the previous auction (3.29 times), and the highest accepted price reached its highest level in 30 years. After the result of the auction was announced, the yield declined slightly below 3.1% level.

尽管此次拍卖进行顺利,但受中东冲突长期化以及日本财政前景担忧的影响,债券投资者对通胀问题仍感到不安。

Although the auction went smoothly, bond investors remain uneasy over inflation due to the protracted conflict in the Middle East and concerns about Japan's fiscal trajectory.

周一,首相高市早苗在国会特别会议开幕演讲中表示,其政府将根据经济和市场的状况,“灵活而迅速”地调整财政政策。

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Monday delivered a speech marking the opening of an extraordinary Diet session, saying her administration will adjust fiscal policy "flexibly and swiftly" according to economic and market conditions.

高市在承诺将经济增长作为政策优先事项的同时,也试图缓解市场对其财政恶化的担忧,并暗示将对政府债券发行规模进行控制。

While vowing to prioritize economic growth in her policies, Takaichi sought to ease market concerns over fiscal deterioration, indicating that government bond issuance will be controlled.

高市倡导“负责任的积极财政支出”政策。其支出计划包括到2040年实现370万亿日元(2.3万亿美元)的公共和私人投资,以及对食品实施临时消费税减免。

Takaichi has advocated a policy of "responsible proactive fiscal spending." Her spending agenda includes 370 trillion yen ($2.3 trillion) in public and private investment by 2040, as well as a temporary consumption tax cut on food.

SMBC日兴证券的日本利率高级策略师登美纪指出:“随着海外利率持续上升,日本国债收益率的上涨趋势短期内难以停止。”

"With overseas interest rates continuing to rise, it is difficult to see JGB yields stopping their upward climb," noted Miki Den, senior Japan rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

他表示,根据高市政府的增长战略和大宗商品价格的走势,“收益率可能会进一步上行”,并补充说,“许多投资者可能对10年期国债收益率的进一步上涨保持警惕。“为了安抚市场,高市政府强调它已经放弃通货再膨胀政策。

Depending on the Takaichi government's growth strategy and movements in commodity prices, "there could be further upside to yields," he said, adding that "Many investors are likely to remain wary of further increases in the 10-year yield." In an attempt to reassure markets, the Takaichi administration is emphasizing that it has pivoted away from reflationary policies.

财务大臣片山聪树在最近的一次采访中告诉《日经》,“政府将用一个声音说话”,并呈现统一战线,以减少市场的不确定性。

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told Nikkei in a recent interview that "the government will speak in one voice" and present a united front to reduce uncertainty in the market.

发出这些信号之际,华盛顿就日元疲软向东京施压,并担心央行可能落后于通胀曲线。美国官员也对日本债券收益率上升影响全球市场表示担忧。

The signals come with Washington pressuring Tokyo on the weak yen and concerns that the central bank could fall behind the curve on inflation. U.S. officials have also voiced concern about rising Japanese bond yields impacting the global market.

对日本央行本月加息的预期已经消退,Totan Research和Totan ICAP的数据暗示可能性为16%。尽管如此,随着油价上涨和日元疲软影响到更广泛的商品和服务,该行仍在监控通胀风险。恶劣天气导致蔬菜价格飙升,加剧了通胀压力。由于对通胀和公共债务的担忧日益加剧,全球长期利率正在上升。

Expectations for the BOJ to deliver a rate hike this month have subsided, with Totan Research and Totan ICAP data implying a 16% probability. Still, the bank is monitoring inflationary risks as elevated oil prices and the weak yen feed through to a broader range of goods and services. Surging vegetable prices due to adverse weather have added to inflationary pressures. Long-term rates are rising globally amid growing concerns over inflation and public debt.

美国美国国债收益率已达到数十年来的高点。10年期国债收益率周一升至5.3%,30年期国债收益率一度升至5.70%,为2002年5月以来的最高水平。

U.S. Treasury yields have reached multidecade highs. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.3% on Monday while the 30-year yield at one point climbed to 5.70%, its highest since May 2002.

在欧洲,由于对法国公共财政和西班牙政治不确定性的担忧,类似的压力也很明显。

Similar pressures are evident in Europe amid concerns over France's public finances and political uncertainty in Spain.

在政策制定者努力应对利率上升之际,20国集团财长和央行行长会议将于下周在曼谷举行。

As policymakers grapple with rising rates, the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held in Bangkok next week.