
一股与今年厄尔尼诺天气模式相关的巨型水下涌浪正沿美洲西海岸北上,令科学家们对气候变化如何放大这一自然现象的影响敲响警钟。
A giant underwater wave of water connected to this year's El Niño weather pattern is moving up the west coast of the Americas, raising alarm bells among scientists about how climate change is magnifying the impacts of the naturally occurring phenomenon.
所谓的开尔文波并不出乎意料。但与厄尔尼诺整体情况类似,它发生在人类活动导致的气候变化之上,而气候变化已经使海洋和大气升温。
The so-called Kelvin wave is not unexpected. But like El Niño as a whole, it is happening on top of human-caused climate change that has already warmed the oceans and atmosphere.
据加拿大环境与气候变化部的研究科学家比尔·梅里菲尔德称,一股较小的涌浪今年早些时候已抵达不列颠哥伦比亚省,预计下一股将在一到两周内到达。
A smaller wave already reached B.C. earlier this summer, and the next one is expected to arrive within one to two weeks, according to Bill Merryfield, a research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada.
梅里菲尔德表示:“事实上,我们在六月时已在一些地点观测到超过30厘米的水位上升。因此,即将到来的这股涌浪看起来会更强。”其成因是什么?
"We actually did already see over 30 centimetres in some locations in June. And so the coming wave looks like it'll be a stronger one," Merryfield said.
开尔文波是一种自然发生的天气现象,正如厄尔尼诺本身一样。在正常年份,太平洋赤道附近的风通常从东向西吹,一般将海水从南美洲推向亚洲。
What causes it? The Kelvin wave is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon, just like El Niño itself. In normal years, winds blow from east to west along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, generally pushing water from South America toward Asia.
然而,在厄尔尼诺年份,这些自东向西的风会减弱甚至反向,使得海水转而向东流动。
During El Niño years, however, those east-to-west winds weaken or can reverse direction, allowing water to move east instead.
梅里菲尔德说:“当这些开尔文波抵达南美洲海岸时,这股堆积的海水已无处可去。于是它分裂开来,开始沿美洲南北两岸流动,最终一路北上直至加拿大。”
"When these Kelvin waves reach the coast of South America, there's nowhere further east for this pile up of water to go. And so it splits and starts running up and down the coasts of the Americas" and eventually all the way up to Canada, Merryfield said.
在温哥华岛太平洋沿岸的托菲诺收集的海平面监测数据显示了六月早些时候开尔文波的影响。开尔文波并非类似巨型海啸的巨浪,而是暂时抬升海平面。
Sea-level monitoring data collected at Tofino, on Vancouver Island's Pacific coast, shows the impact of the earlier Kelvin wave in June. Rather than a giant tsunami-like wave, the Kelvin wave temporarily raises sea levels.
加州大学气候科学家丹尼尔·斯温上月向哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示:“你可以把它想象成海洋表面高度上一个非常宽阔、数百英里宽但非常浅的隆起,大约抬高一英尺左右。”它将对西海岸产生什么影响?
"You can think of it more like a very broad, hundreds of miles wide, but very shallow bulge in the height of the ocean surface, so by maybe a foot or so," University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain told CBS News last month. What will it do to the West Coast?
梅里菲尔德表示,影响在王潮期间最为显著,尤其是当太阳和月球的引力叠加,导致潮汐高于正常水平的高潮时。
Merryfield said the impacts are most pronounced during king tides, particularly high tides that happen when the gravitational pull of the sun and moon combine to produce higher-than-normal tides.
“如果你将30厘米的海平面上升叠加在王潮之上,再叠加一场引发风暴潮的冬季风暴,那时你才真正开始陷入困境,”他说。
"So if you put that 30 centimetres of sea level rise on top of a king tide, and then maybe you add a winter storm to that, which causes a storm surge, that's when you really start to get into trouble," he said.
“由于厄尔尼诺现象导致的约一英尺的海平面上升,可能会产生巨大冲击。”一项研究表明,厄尔尼诺引发的热浪可能在2月之前导致50万人死亡。这些涌浪可能因厄尔尼诺的另一种效应而加剧,进一步推高不列颠哥伦比亚省沿海的海平面。厄尔尼诺可以增强沿海岸线向北的风,将更多的海水推向岸边。
"This extra foot or so of sea level rise due to El Niño can pack a punch." El Niño-fuelled heat could kill half a million people by February: study Those surges could be intensified by another effect of El Niño, further raising sea levels along the B.C coast. El Niño can strengthen northward winds along the coast, pushing even more water toward shore.
这些叠加效应——开尔文波、更强的北向风以及冬季风暴,叠加在气候变化已经导致的海平面上升和极端天气加剧之上——可能会加剧沿海地区的洪水和侵蚀。过去强烈的厄尔尼诺事件曾导致加利福尼亚州海滩发生大面积侵蚀。
These compounding effects — the Kelvin wave, stronger northward winds and winter storms, on top of climate change already raising sea levels and intensifying extreme weather — could worsen flooding and erosion along the coast. Strong El Niños in the past have caused widespread erosion on California's beaches.
据美联社报道,当地当局正在海滩上铺设紧急沙袋,并预计开尔文波将使水位上升6至12英寸。
Local authorities there are placing emergency sand on beaches and expect the Kelvin wave to raise water levels six to 12 inches, the Associated Press reports.
梅里菲尔德警告称,开尔文波——以及更广泛的厄尔尼诺现象——的影响可能远超本季节。
The impacts of the Kelvin wave — and El Niño more broadly — could extend far beyond this season, Merryfield warned.
海洋吸收了大部分被温室气体困住的多余热量,在人类继续燃烧化石燃料的同时,缓解了全球变暖。然而,在厄尔尼诺期间,部分储存的热量会从海洋释放到大气中。
The oceans absorb much of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, moderating global warming as humans continue to burn fossil fuels. During El Niños, however, some of that stored heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere.
梅里菲尔德表示,这很可能导致2027年以“相当大的幅度”成为有记录以来最暖的一年,这与其它气候研究机构和科学家的类似警告相呼应。
This will likely lead to 2027 becoming the warmest year on record "by quite a significant margin," Merryfield said, echoing similar warnings from other climate research organizations and scientists.