沿着西海岸移动的沿岸受限开尔文波。深红色代表高于正常水平的海平面。
Coastally trapped Kelvin waves moving along the West Coast. The dark red represents higher than normal sea levels.
狄龙·J·阿马亚/北卡罗来纳州立大学 今年“超级厄尔尼诺现象”的首批重大迹象之一已经抵达美国。这被称为开尔文波——这是一种深海波浪，目前正在提高美国西海岸的海平面。
Dillon J. Amaya/North Carolina State University One of the first major signs of this year's "Super El Niño" has reached the U.S. It's called a Kelvin wave – a deep ocean wave that's currently raising sea levels along the West Coast.
科学家们对开尔文波早已有所了解，但今年，这一现象吸引了公众的关注，相关的视频解说在TikTok上获得了数千次观看。“这确实让我感到意外——我的意思是，它一直都在这里，”创建了用于预报和预测厄尔尼诺现象的首批模型之一的马克·凯恩表示。“我相信开尔文勋爵在地下也会感到高兴。” 在厄尔尼诺年，当太平洋中的一广阔水域变得比平时暖和得多时，开尔文波就会在赤道沿线形成。
Scientists have long known about Kelvin waves, but this year, the phenomena grabbed the public's attention with video explanations receiving thousands of views across TikTok "It does surprise me – I mean, here it's been around all this time," says Mark Cane, who created one of the first models to forecast and predict El Niño "I'm sure Lord Kelvin is happy in his grave." Kelvin waves can develop along the equator during El Niño years, when a vast region of water in the Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual.
其中一部分温水以长达数千英里的开尔文波形式，在海洋表面以下缓慢向东移动，直到抵达南美洲。然后它一分为二，一路向北沿着西海岸移动，向南则远至智利。
Some of this warm water, in the form of a Kelvin wave that stretches thousands of miles, moves slowly east beneath the ocean's surface until it reaches South America. Then it splits, traveling north along the West Coast and as far south as Chile.
“这就像是一个巨大的浴缸在晃荡，”哥伦比亚大学地球与气候科学系荣誉退休教授凯恩说。“但这种晃荡非常奇特，因为在开尔文波中，它只沿着赤道自西向东移动。”
"It's like an enormous bathtub sloshing around," Cane says, professor emeritus of earth and climate sciences at Columbia University. "But the slosh is very peculiar, because it only goes west to east along the equator in a Kelvin wave."
这些并不是在强风暴和飓风期间冲击海岸线的、巨大的且高度显眼的波浪。“这不是一堵水墙，这不是海啸，这不是你能冲浪的浪，”北卡罗来纳州立大学大气科学助理教授狄龙·阿马亚说。“这是一场行星尺度的波浪。” 开尔文波的影响是渐进的，它在沿海岸线上升的过程中抬高海平面，并带来了更高的洪水风险和更暖的水温。有什么影响？开尔文波会增加洪水和海岸侵蚀的风险。
These are not the massive, highly visible waves that crash into shorelines during major storms and hurricanes "It's not a wall of water, it's not a tsunami, it's not a wave you can surf," says Dillon Amaya, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State University. "It's a planetary-scale wave." A Kelvin wave's impact is gradual, raising sea levels as it moves up the coast, and bringing with it an elevated risk of floods and warmer water temperatures. What's the impact? Kelvin waves can increase the risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
仅凭开尔文波本身不会导致洪水，阿玛亚说。相反，它们会“装载骰子”，通过提升海平面使洪水更可能发生。
By themselves, Kelvin waves don't cause flooding, Amaya says. Instead, they load the dice, making flooding more likely by raising sea levels.
“它使背景条件更有利于沿海洪水，但你需要的是触发因素，”阿玛亚说，例如一场大型风暴或非常高的潮汐。
"It makes the background conditions more favorable towards coastal flooding, but what you need are triggering factors," Amaya said, such as a major storm or very high tides.
美国国家航空航天局喷气推进实验室的气候科学家乔希·威利斯说，开尔文波提高了加州海岸出现“三重打击”的可能性：“厄尔尼诺、高潮和风暴潮同时到来。”这正是一些南加州社区在10月初所经历的情况。由于开尔文波的影响，海平面已经高于正常水平——大约六到八英寸，阿玛亚说。随后，当热带风暴瑞秋袭来时，风暴潮淹没了社区，并使滨海住宅部分被淹。“那次风暴潮几乎肯定因为开尔文波而变得更具破坏性，”阿玛亚说。
Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, says Kelvin waves raise the chances of a "triple whammy" along the California coast: "El Nino, the high tide and the storm surge all coming at once." That's exactly what some Southern California communities experienced in early October. Sea levels were already higher than normal because of the Kelvin wave – about six to eight inches, Amaya says. Then, when Tropical Storm Rachel hit, a storm surge flooded neighborhoods and left oceanfront homes partially submerged "That storm surge was almost certainly made more devastating because of the Kelvin wave," Amaya says.
温暖的海水温度 开尔文波在海面下缓慢向东移动，直到到达南美洲。然后它们分裂，向北沿着西海岸行进，向南延伸至智利。深红色代表高于正常的海平面。
Warmer water temperatures Kelvin waves move slowly east beneath the ocean's surface until they reach South America. Then they split, traveling north along the West Coast and south as far as Chile. The dark red represents higher than normal sea levels.
开尔文波还会把温暖的水带到海岸上，这可能造成干扰并对海洋生物造成压力。“我们在一些平时看不到热带鱼的地方看到了它们，”阿玛亚说。“比如在圣地亚哥海岸外发现了一只鲸鲨。”开尔文波可以将富含营养的冷水向下推，而这些冷水支撑着高产的海洋生态系统。阿玛亚说，研究人员已经看到海鸟因沿海水温升高而死亡的证据。下一个开尔文波何时到来？阿玛亚说，在强厄尔尼诺年份，通常会有五到六个开尔文波。
Kelvin waves also bring warmer water up the coast, which can be disruptive and put stress on marine life "We've seen tropical fishes in places that we don't normally see them," Amaya says. "Like a whale shark was spotted off the coast of San Diego." The Kelvin wave can push down nutrient-dense cold waters that support productive marine ecosystems. Amaya says researchers have already seen evidence of sea birds dying in response to warmer water temperatures along the coast. When is the next Kelvin wave? There are usually five to six Kelvin waves during a strong El Niño year, Amaya says.
阿马亚预测，下一次开尔文波将于10月下旬或11月上旬到达圣迭戈。他说，预计整个秋季和初冬还将出现几次这样的海浪。开尔文波通常会在厄尔尼诺现象达到顶峰之前消退。
Amaya predicts the next Kelvin wave will reach San Diego in late October or early November. Several more waves are expected through the fall and early winter, he says. Kelvin waves usually subside before the peak of El Niño.
厄尔尼诺模式通常在年底或1月上旬达到峰值。今年，美国国家海洋和大气管理局的研究人员预测，厄尔尼诺现象将一直保持强劲，直至2027年初。
The El Niño pattern typically peaks late in the year or early January. This year, NOAA researchers predict the El Niño will remain strong through early 2027 el niño waves coast