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德国的三重威胁:俄罗斯、中国、极右翼极端分子Germany's triple threat: Russia, China, far-right extremists

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德国情报机构负责人极少公开透露相关信息。联邦议院议会监督委员会的成员们会在设有防窃听措施的会议室里,与联邦情报局(BND)局长、联邦宪法保护局(BfV)局长以及军事情报部门负责人进行会谈,这些谈话内容均属严格保密事项。

The heads of Germany's intelligence agencies rarely provide information openly. What members of the Bundestag 's Parliamentary Control Committee discuss in their bug-proof meeting room with the presidents of the Federal Intelligence Service, or Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), as well as the president of the Military Counterintelligence Service, is strictly confidential.

不过自2016年起,每年都会举办一次对记者及提前报名的普通民众开放的公开会议。在周一举行的今年会议上,情报官员们显得极为忧心忡忡。他们描述了一个正与俄罗斯处于对抗状态中的德国。“北约专家近期评估指出,在特定条件下俄罗斯未来几年内有可能对北约发起攻击;而如今在情报领域的隐秘世界中,那些针对2029年设定的军事预案已然成为现实,”联邦宪法保护局局长西南·塞伦说道。

Since 2016, however, a public meeting has been held once a year, open to journalists, as well as citizens who in advance. At this year's meeting, held Monday intelligence officials seemed extremely alarmed. They painted a picture of a country in the midst of a confrontation with Russia "The military scenarios envisioned for the year 2029 have already become a reality today in the shadowy world of intelligence," BfV President Sinan Selen said, referring to a recent assessment by NATO experts that, under certain conditions, Russia could be capable of launching an attack on the alliance in a few years.

联邦情报局局长马丁·耶格尔则表示,目前并无迹象表明俄罗斯会立即发动军事攻击。相反,莫斯科正通过破坏活动、网络攻击、散布虚假信息及间谍活动来发动一场“隐形战争”。“当前没有任何其他国家能对德国构成如此直接、全面且切实的威胁,”耶格尔解释道,并补充说:“德国极有可能被卷入与俄罗斯的激烈冲突之中。” 德国将如何扩大情报权限?

BND President Martin Jäger said there were no indications of an imminent military attack. Instead, Moscow is waging a "shadow war" through sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage. "No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany," Jäger explained, adding: "Germany is in danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia."

原因何在? 观看此视频:为何俄罗斯将德国视为主要目标 在向乌克兰提供军事、资金及人道主义援助方面,德国发挥着至关重要的作用。耶格尔指出,正因如此,俄罗斯将德国视为“其在欧洲推行霸权的主要阻碍”。“倘若德国出现动摇,整个欧洲乃至对乌克兰的援助都将随之瓦解,”耶格尔总结道。

Explained: How Germany will expand intel powers, and why To view this video, and In Russia's crosshairs Germany plays an essential role in supporting Ukraine through military, financial and humanitarian efforts. Jäger said that this makes Russia see Germany as a "major obstacle to Russia's hegemonic power projection in Europe." "If Germany were to falter, all of Europe — and Europe's support for Ukraine — would begin to unravel," Jäger concluded.

各情报机构负责人对乌克兰战事走向表示担忧。预计今年冬季,俄罗斯将加大对乌克兰的施压力度,同时试图阻挠西方向乌方提供武器。

The intelligence agency heads expressed concern over the course of the war in Ukraine. Russia is expected to step up the pressure on the country this coming winter. At the same time, Moscow is attempting to hinder Western arms deliveries.

情报部门发现,俄罗斯蓄意制造不确定性,企图削弱欧盟及其他地区的社会韧性。塞伦称此类行为为“经过冷血算计的破坏行动”。当被问及减少对乌援助能否提升德国安全时,耶格尔斩钉截铁地表示,向基辅提供援助符合德国国家利益。

The intelligence services find that Russia is deliberately attempting to create uncertainty and weaken societal resilience in the European Union and elsewhere. Selen spoke of "coldly calculated destabilization operations." When asked whether Germany would be safer if it did less to support Ukraine, Jäger said unequivocally that aid to Kyiv is in the national interest.

除间谍活动外,破坏行为乃至暗杀行动也呈增多趋势,交通要道、军事基础设施及国防工业尤为易受攻击。

In addition to espionage, there are an increasing number of acts of sabotage and even assassination operations. Transportation routes, military infrastructure, and the defense industry are particularly at risk.

以今年夏季莱比锡/哈雷机场的袭击未遂事件为例,俄罗斯被认定为主要嫌疑方。8月,一架装有炸药的无人机在该机场靠近乌克兰货运机处被发现。德国联邦宪法保卫局局长塞伦再次指出,有确凿证据显示俄罗斯与此事有关。

As an example, authorities cited this summer's attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in which Russia is the prime suspect. In August, a drone rigged with explosives was discovered there near a Ukrainian cargo plane. Selen, head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, again pointed to clear evidence of Russian involvement.

普京否认俄方参与莱比锡无人机袭击事件;“一次性特工”与有组织犯罪亦成隐患。德国情报部门尤为担忧所谓“低级别特工”的日益增多——这些人多通过网络渠道在当地招募,从事间谍活动、运输服务或破坏行动。塞伦强调:“社交媒体在此类活动中发挥着核心作用。”

Putin denies Russian involvement in Leipzig drone attack 'Disposable agents' and organized crime Germany's domestic intelligence agency is particularly concerned about the increasing use of so-called low-level agents, or people who are recruited locally via digital channels, for example, for espionage, transport services or acts of sabotage. "Social media plays a central role here," Selen stressed.

各情报负责人还指出,俄罗斯情报机构正与有组织犯罪集团勾结。这一趋势的加剧令安全部门必须未雨绸缪,予以更严密防范。

The intelligence chiefs also said Russian services were collaborating with organized crime groups. An increase in this area is a development that security agency heads say they will need to prepare for more thoroughly in the future.

据德国联邦情报局称,俄罗斯正通过有针对性的行动逐步试探边界。该局列举的例子包括无人机飞越北约领土上空,以及俄罗斯飞机侵入摩尔多瓦领空。“俄罗斯正在刻意将某些行为设定为一种新的常态,”耶格尔说道。

According to the BND, Russia is gradually pushing boundaries through targeted actions. Examples cited included drone overflights of NATO territory and airspace violations in Moldova "Russia is very deliberately shifting the bar here toward a kind of new normal," said Jäger.

耶格尔指出,针对个别北约国家、尤其是波罗的海国家的秘密行动也是有可能发生的。他提及2014年克里米亚事件:当时俄罗斯军队以无任何标识的隐蔽部队形式出现。如今,情报机构负责人认为类似行动仍有可能发生,目的就是测试北约的应对能力。

Jäger said covert operations against individual NATO countries, particularly in the Baltic states, were conceivable, recalling events in Crimea in 2014, when Russian troops appeared as covert units without any insignia. Now the agency heads suggest similar operations could be conducted to test the alliance's ability to respond.

中国的长期威胁 除了俄罗斯,中国依然是各国安全机构密切关注的对象。德国联邦宪法保护局再次发出警告,称需警惕中国试图通过科研合作及大学渠道获取德国技术机密的行为。其中,人工智能、量子技术、高超音速技术以及生物技术是重点关注领域。

China's long-term challenge In addition to Russia, China continues to be a concern for security agencies. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution once again warned against attempts to gain access to German know-how through research collaborations and universities Particular focus is on artificial intelligence quantum technology, hypersonic technology and biotechnology.

德国当局也对中国技术产品的扩散深感担忧。联网汽车或家用电器所泄露的数据可能被滥用;极端情况下,相关系统甚至可能被远程操控而停止运行。

The authorities are also watching the spread of Chinese technology products with concern. Data leaks from connected vehicles or household appliances could be misused. In extreme cases, it is even conceivable that systems could be shut down remotely.

为何柏林仍是间谍活动热点 右翼极端主义日益猖獗 此次议会委员会讨论中,极端主义问题也占据了重要篇幅。谈及右翼极端主义,塞伦称这是一种“极其令人担忧的趋势”:一些具有暴力倾向的年轻人正日益形成跨国网络。

Why Berlin remains an espionage hot spot Right-wing extremism on the rise The topic of extremism also took up a significant portion of the discussion with the parliamentary committee. Regarding right-wing extremism, Selen spoke of an "extremely alarming trend" toward groups of young actors who are prone to violence and are increasingly forming international networks.

德国军事反间谍局局长玛蒂娜·罗森伯格报告称,德国联邦国防军内部涉嫌极端主义的案例数量有所上升。社会层面的激进化趋势同样波及到了军队。

MAD President Martina Rosenberg reported an increase in suspected cases of extremism within the Bundeswehr. The increasing radicalization of society is not sparing the armed forces either.

在威胁日益增多的背景下,德国联邦情报局与联邦宪法保卫局的负责人为拟议中的情报权力扩张举措进行了辩护。该计划旨在大幅增强这两个机构在数据收集、存储及自动化分析方面的权限。此外,这些机构还将首次获得通过反制手段主动应对破坏行为或黑客攻击等威胁的能力。

Against the backdrop of growing threats, the heads of the BND and BfV defended a planned expansion of intelligence powers The plan is to significantly expand agencies' powers regarding the collection, storage, and automated analysis of data. In addition, the agencies are to be given the ability for the first time, to actively combat threats such as acts of sabotage or hacker attacks through counterattacks.

“在地缘政治局势动荡、冲突风险上升且混合式攻击频发的当下,我们比以往任何时候都更需要具备针对性的能力与强大的安全体系,”塞伦说道。

"Amid geopolitical instability, conflict-prone systemic rivalry and hybrid aggression, there is a greater need than ever for tailored capabilities and robust security systems," Selen said.

耶格尔补充道:“只要拥有这些权力,我们就会加以运用。我们的对手必将为此付出代价。”不过,德国国内也有批评声音指出,此举可能模糊情报收集与警方执法之间的界限。鉴于情报机构权力范围的扩大,反对党绿党成员、议会情报监督委员会成员康斯坦丁·冯·诺茨也呼吁加强对情报机构的监管。他预计联邦宪法法院将会对此次权力扩张计划作出裁决。

Jäger said: "If we have these powers, then we will use them. And our adversaries will feel the consequences." Critics in Germany, however, warn against blurring the line between intelligence gathering and police intervention. In light of these expanding powers, Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Parliamentary Control Panel with the opposition environmentalist Greens is also calling for greater oversight of the intelligence services. He expects the Federal Constitutional Court to address the plan to expand the powers of the intelligence services.